That an actual EPM isn’t out yet due to small sample size so far this season.

Although, the two players did switch teams, so expected is a bit wonky to draw any conclusion with it. I think Actual last year Brown was 2.0+ and PG was 1.5+. Probably just wait another 10 games for when actual comes out for this season.

No one else on the South Bay Lakers even has a chance

That’s true, didn’t even think of it like that

algebraic equation meme

i’ll give it a few more Scaramuccis before they rethink of publishing the stat

Nauseating

Nah, the can keep him

And anytime you try to bring up these points, “Nah man, you just don’t know real ball. All that is just nerd shit!”

Definitely, and they beat Boston in the playoffs in part because PG was way better than Brown in that series on both ends of the floor while handling a 2nd option role.

I think Philly would’ve been better off running it back with LeBron added to last year’s roster, but I also understand not wanting to take a games played risk on your max contract wing when your center is Joel Embiid.

While true PG just looked too old out there. Even coming off the 25 game suspension, it looked like his legs just died.

I knkw the same could happen to Embiid or LeBron, but comparing PG to JB, I’d rather have JB for this reason.

PG looked old and is old.

Good player, but he’s an aging guy with health questions. Not super reliable at this point.

Lakers fan talking about first round exits

I would!

Lmao

He’s an old-ass guy with injury issues who notoriously has had many ups and downs over the last handful of years.

You really feel confident that 10 games is all you need to see?

Plus no VORPS, SCHNOORPS, or ASPBERGS

As if sixers fans weren’t acting like world champs after a 9 game sample size

are their whole careers enough sample size for you?

https://www.darko.app/trajectories?ids=202331%2C1627759&metric=bayes_rapm_total&scale=seasons&colors=%233987e5%2C%23d95926&display=modern

Expected EPM and DARKO are both multiyear stats. They use an weighted blend of an entire career (including the current season).

This method is what has most predictive accuracy when predicting a game today.

It’s not just extrapolating a 12 game sample size.

No you guys are dummies, every advanced stat thinks Brown is incredibly mediocre. This is not a new revelation. If you want the non spreadsheet interpretation, its that a guy who is the equivalent of sawdust in rice krisipies (volume scoring on mediocre efficiency and nothing else) is not very conducive to a team being better than other teams.

I’m pretty sure if somebody other than the Celtics (or Thunder) made this trade, people would be way more receptive to it than they were.

Yeah I don’t think the real win for the Celtics was getting PG, it was unloading JB’s contract and allowing them to pursue players that more fit their team moving forward.

Also, if I’m the 76ers I do that trade every time. Jaylen isn’t a perfect player but I think the ego bump he got might help him reassess his game and become a player that adapts more to his team.

Bingo

How about a 10 year sample size of these guys advanced stats?

This is kind of how I feel about them too but at some point when you’ve seen so many league executives and coaches believe in them you just gotta trust that they’re good.

RAPM - is just a model of how the score changes (+/-) while everyone is on the floor that attempts to learn how good every player is (adjust to find each players impact and subtract it away from teammates/opponents). Also regularize (e.g., prefer a bias toward everyone being average) unless data strongly backs up better/worse than average. The problem with RAPM is that it fluctuates a lot when looked at on small samples of data, so really needs to do long multi-season averages.

EPM is generally same idea as RAPM, but first starts from box-score stats credited to each player (pts, assists, turnovers, rebounds, etc.) to build a model of Statistical +/- that is used as a Bayesian prior for the RAPM calculations.

DARKO is a Daily +/- is very similar – takes box score stats as a prior and then doing +/- estimate corrected for each player on the floor – but it does it as a Kalman filter technique (e.g., given noisy measurements, a model, you make a measurement, take your prediction, compare, and update your prediction based on both. This is supposed to be a better daily predictor that doesn’t take as long to converge as RAPM/EPM.

LEBRON is a model similar to EPM with box score, but attempting to do a luck-adjustment to the raw on-off data. Like if a teammate is 90% free throw shooter and attempted two free throws while you were on the floor you should get +1.8 as +/- (instead of what actually happened) and similar for opponents.

The guy who made DARKO was on Thinking Basketball a few weeks ago. He said what sets his metric apart is that every single small minute stat, into I think over 100 components is set to regress at a different rate.

Like free throw percentage, being a very constant stat has a 3 year half-life where your stats years and years ago really make a big influence in your current rating whereas something like “percentage of shots taken at the rim” might have a half-life of 6 months or something since changes to that are predictive pretty fast. Then he builds the formula from the regressed components rather than just using the components to build a rating snd regressing the whole thing.

you can read up on methodology if you want.

Doubt you’ll find exact formulas but most of them do have a methodology that is public.

This is just patently false. Every creator of these stats posts and talks extensively about the flaws and shortcomings of their metrics. No one in the community takes you seriously if you don’t come with testing results, methodology, blind spots etc. it’s why no one takes the shot quality people or David berri (wins produced creator) seriously.

Eye test is very anecdotal, most people pay attention only to the ball and players involved near it, not to what the 6-7 other players on the floor not involved in the action are doing, unless you replay every game multiple times and analyze tape(which let’s be honest, no sane individual that’s not part of an NBA org or in the business of making money off basketball content would do), your eye test is pretty worthless.

Most GMs put a lot of weight into advanced stats for a reason, they obviously aren’t perfect and need context but idiots dismissing them as jokes are super unserious.

Btw until this year many of these people used to use Ty Jerome as an example of a player with good advanced stats that’s not good to dismiss them, guess what happened?

Totally agree, but also, if you watched the game the other night, the eye test definitely confirms (just like the playoff series last spring) that PG is just a better all around player than JB. But he’s old and gets hurt, so who knows if it continues to feel like a win for the Celtics.

Ok but no JB fan can combat the eye test which is hes a mediocre efficiency volume scorer who sucks at playmaking and isnt anything special on defense.

Or you could look at it that when Jokic’s teammates were healthy they easily won the nba title.

Oh look, advanced stats valuable again!

In George’s season with us at OKC where he ended up 3rd in MVP voting, everyone was saying that him and Kawhi were the pinnacle of 3&D players. It was considered a compliment at the time because that was almost universally the most desired type of player.

It’s a descriptive in this case of the game type he can play. He can be smooth off the dribble even if his passing is prone to rubbish moments but he’s not your ball handler in that sense which is also a shallow way of describing someone like LeBron for example.

He’s literally the founding father of 3&D?

Let’s looks at how many games PG has played. How does that look

So what was your opinion of the trade right after it happened?

Thomas is a scout for the celtics. Must be fine with things.

There’s no way a Lakers fan typed this comment out without even a hint of irony. Go take a look at how your franchise treated the guy who is the literal logo on the NBA

I’ve always thought the IT situation was a little overblown. They sent him to play with LeBron James on a competitive cavs team. Not like we shipped his ass to Sacramento

Yea, just the worst huh

Yeah I’m a fan of neither team but very funny to make this post dunking on the 76ers after 11 games when we’re talking about a 36 year old frequently injured Paul George. He’s played 37 and 41 games the last two seasons. So if the Celtics only get him for another 25-30 games this year, will they still be saying this like OP? Lol. The whole point is he’s good but how good is it if he’s already played ¹⁄₃ of his games this season for you basically

I think both teams are currently pretty happy. It’s sort of a better fit for both teams. The Sixers gave up picks cuz they got the much younger player with the better injury history.

PG just compliments JT more and fits in the system better than JB.