\(200m are \)200m, but testing free agency could led to anything, even to $200m!

The Pistons have continually upped their offer all summer– why should he sign before he has to? He’s only dumb if he actually signs the QO, which is extremely unlikely, despite all the hypothetical reporting.

And with the lotto rules changing a team like the Kings have more incentive to offer Duren a max in UFA when they have the room.

Yeah he’s not even betting on himself, he can’t even get more than they’re offering. I have zero idea what he even wants

No. The dumbest part is acting like he’s already made his decision.

That math needs another All-NBA. Betting on yourself twice is a weird plan

In my world - low ball negotiation is for easily to moderately easily replaceable candidates.

When you need to move heaven & earth to replace someone (for ex. roles that require a combo of specialized experience plus highest level security clearances, extremely heavy travel, time sensitive etc.) they don’t play those games.

Clearly posturing from both sides. The new cap rules are making teams more judicious about their cap space and i think that’s driving the stalemate more than any hurt feelings. Duren wants more money and he knows detroit is the only place that can offer more than $200mil. Conversely, detroit really doesn’t want to offer more than another team can offer him for obvious reasons

why tf don’t you start with the 100k and not waste peoples time.

Because many people will accept 80k (or maybe 90k after negotiating and “winning”), so the company can save money by not just initially offering the $100k. I don’t blame him for negotiating. I also don’t blame the Pistons for starting lower.

Caveat: I don’t think he’s worth close to $200M.

if you mean the shaq in the sense that he will be in a commercial for every product on tv to make up for this lost bag, then yeah

Yikes

The Pistons should feel disrespected by his shitty ass performance that almost led to a first round less to a clearly inferior team. His regular season production is the only reason he’s even getting 200 million.

Injuries, opponents get better at handling him, team regression, etc

So many things can go wrong

I would’ve signed this offer so fucking fast, lol. Not a single person could talk me away from this.

Hell it doesn’t even take an injury. Duren was the beneficiary of playing alongside one of the best playmakers in the league.

If he ends up on a team that doesn’t have a top 3 playmaker feeding him, his impact is going to go down, and so will his offers.

Bloodline is about to be in the hood again

I’m guessing he has an insurance policy in case of that. It would probably take the whole QO to pay for it though, but I really think dude is just that petty and wants off the Pistons.

His bloodline? I didn’t know he was Samoan.

They already have that

Ego is a helluva drug

Hold on, let me explain why 200Mil is not 200Mil and why its actually pennies -some NBA podcaster.

I’m certain he does, I think everybody is just far too focused on the money.

This is so clearly personal at this point and if the Pistons won’t give him the max, he’d rather sign elsewhere next offseason for less money.

Whatever happened during the negotiations must’ve gotten sour to the point that Duren concur, that the org have been disrespectful to him at the personal level

because his salary would count double for the team receiving him than it would for the Pistons. They can’t just trade him for Sabonis for example

1. the FO hasn’t spoken to him directly. while this sounds bad, it also means they don’t actually know how he is really feeling.

2. cade reported that he and duren still talk all the time and have been throughout the summer/this whole process.

the FO is making a (in my opinion, reasonable) bet that the agent is overstating the level of disruption this will have on team chemistry once he is back in the building. all things considered, the month to mend relationships after he signs may be better than taking a bad deal because an agent is telling reporters his client is upset to get more money.

I spent all offseason expecting this to happen but I’m starting to think it’s not going to, lol

Teams wouldnt go for that. It takes two to tango.

Cool, but he’s a restricted FA, so it’s not up to him, if he wants to play in the NBA.

Yeah, that’s my point—he could “maybe” get that. The risk of not getting it means the expected value is actually meaningfully lower.

If he could convince one of those six teams that have room to offer it just to help him squeeze $5m more out of the Pistons, then yes.

If he takes the QO he’s a UFA next summer.

Yes, he could certainly solicit a 1/\(15M offer right now, but nobody has that money to give him. Season starts in 2 weeks. Most cap space currently available is Memphis with \)3M. There are a couple of MLE’s out there, but that’s just QO money anyways.

Another team’s best offer would be, at best, slightly worse, and he would be taking on the risk that he doesn’t get that best offer, whether due to injury, declining performance, or available cap space—so the expected value of the QO route is meaningfully less than Detroit’s current offer.

If he is angling for a sign and trade, that obviously isn’t coming at this point.

The final bump happened after the league increased the cap by $2.5M. I think it’s a reflection of that.

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Someone else said , “why would he not wait until the deadline? If the piston do think he may take the QO, maybe they throw 2 more mil at him right before the deadline. If not he still gets the 200. Ultimately no one will care how long it took , only production versus cost”

Seems reasonable to me lol

That’s the fun part, he’s not.

This is crazy. I understand thinking you’re worth more than that or ego or whatever but the way this guy collapsed in the playoffs not to mention the fact if he regresses even a little bit… He’s going to wish he took this. Not to mention imagine an injury lol. But he’s just flat out not worth this money and I don’t think that’s a stretch for me to say that because I’ve seen plenty of Detroit fans say that themselves.

I mean at the end of the day you got to pay what you got to pay for a guy with his talent but I think even if he accepts this offer puts Detroit in a bit of a tight spot going forward in terms of truly being able to build a solid team around Cade. Because I don’t think this contract ages that well

Which means he’s going to get fat and play like garbage. The team chemistry is going to be screwed, and he is gone in 2 years max.

Is it tho? Last I heard that 200M offer included the weight check stipulation

It’s actually a clause for him to be skinny and not bulky, his latest years of strenght training have taken away from his mobility

I’m guessing he got too muscular and that’s where the concerns are.

He can have a low bodyfat % but still be heavier than what the team wants, more muscle isn’t always good if it limits your speed/agility

he was in a contract year. look at the years before that

It slightly make sense, because they want duren to remain agile, while on the court, as their justification for willing to offer him 40M/year contract

It’s kind of funny but it’s because he’s too swole.

Definitely… the risk of injury is just too much. He’d be a massive idiot not to sign and I think he will…

Also about $10M will go to California’s state tax vs Michigan’s. The Pistons only play 4 games in California per season, the Kings play 47.

When players bet on themselves (i.e. taking a very low qualifying offer for one year in hopes of attracting a bigger deal in Free Agency the next summer) it almost never works out well. Specially when the difference isnt that big, Duren is turning down 200 Million in hopes of getting like 250 all the while risking never making that kind of money again.

As an example: Dennis Schroeder rejected an 80 million contract from the Lakers, deciding to instead bet on himself and he has made less than half of that ever since and that’s while being both World Cup and Eurobasket MVP.

Common wisdom is “Take the generational bag, if you are THAT good they will extend you for a crazy amount anyway”

How is Stewart relevant here? He certainly isn’t a deep playoff run level big either. He’s definitely significantly worse than Duren

22y dude that ranked in the top 15 by his peers, playing a position that is currently in high demand with a shortage of decent players.

Detroit is being stupid over literal pennies for their owner.

Atp, he either does care more about just not being in Detroit than money, or he’s forcing Trajan to blink because he knows the franchise basically wins nothing in the Cade era if their biggest tradeable asset leaves for nothing.

Agree 100%. $30M/yr for a guy who was sat for long stretches of playoffs games because he was so bad is a massive offer. Dude has 7 points and 9 rebounds in game 7 against Cleveland, while being pretty helpless on defense.

Exactly, they were literally better with him on the bench

I believe there were rumblings of them attempting to extend him at a cheap number early into the season, well before all that palyed out

Playoffs arent everything. He is young only about to start his 5th year. He has steadily improved every year. He plays the most impactful position. He puts up decent numbers is an allstar calibre player and will likely just improve the next few years. Hes well within his right to try to get his worth. Now hes being offered his worth but that took a while. 1 playoff run doesnt change all the above. Young players and players in general have stinkers it happens. But his overal year was really good. We have proof that he is productive young player.

Man, Duren really is Gen-Z Drummond, isnt he? Just… with a lot less rebounds

¹³⁄₁₀ if he was an elite rim protector would be a different story, but he is basically the 2nd option on offense. If he gets 40M a year and averages less than ²⁰⁄₁₀ on strong inside shooting that’s a disaster.

Based off the time frame, the only two realistic candidates are Brandon Ingram … and Zion.

Look man, I like Paul as much as any non-Pistons fan, but running a center rotation of just him sounds like an amazing way to throw away a season

As a fan of a team who has been irritated by how we simply let players go, it’s not as easy just counting for financial/cap flexibility in the new CBA landscape. First, very few, if any, impactful players (I’m talking All NBA or All-D level players) are willingly hitting FA.

Additionally, every asset is worth something and not in an insignificant way. I’m not saying an albatross contract isn’t the biggest problem in the new CBA landscape, but a close second is losing players without recouping anything for them. It can delay your team’s strategy for building by a year or two.

The pistons are probably still fucked if they lose him for nothing though. They aren’t the Lakers; they have been swinging and missing on names in the trade market solely because star players don’t want to play in Detroit. If they lose Duren they don’t have much they can really do, better to slightly over-pay and use his contract to get a star player at the deadline with all their picks.

Yeah, his only source of leverage is the fact that he could potentially nuke the Pistons’ short/medium term future by threatening to either taking the QO or by holding out and not play the entire season. The problem is that that sort of threat depends on people thinking that you’re actually willing to go through with it, so all of this posturing and messaging is good negotiating on his representation’s part

Is there a time of day on tomorrow’s deadline that you know of?

Which won’t work because of base year compensation (the Pistons wouldn’t)

If it’s truly about money, I can’t understand wanting to go to California and losing that additional money to income taxes.

I don’t understand what you mean. if he signs the QO he will be a UFA after the season. Any team could then sign him without giving back assets in a trade.

Number of fouls = number of field goals made. That’s Duren’s postseason in a nutshell

Unless I’m mistaken, if Duren doesn’t accept either the Pistons offer or the qualifying offer, then he becomes an unsigned restricted free agent, but because he’s unsigned, he can’t play for any team.

Which is what he currently is - an unsigned restricted free agent. He remains that. The situation in two days really isn’t any different from what it is now, in terms of leverage, except that the QO may not exist as a backstop in a few days. I’m not sure what that does if he never intended to take it anyway.

I can see him letting the QO expire and then negotiating all the way up to the start of the season. Once the season starts, the first year of that ⁵⁄₂₀₀ starts being prorated downward by the day.

Even more crazy is no team can offer him the 200 million next offseason either