Yaxel Lendeborg turns 24 years old today.
I’ve never believed in a super old prospect like I believe in Yaxel Lendeborg
I know he is for an nba rookie, but calling someone 24 super old hurts ðŸ˜
Malcom Brogdon was an older prospect
Wasn’t he a 2nd rounder though?
Which is what Yaxel would have been had he not stuck around thanks to NIL money.
Yes..
Even he was a couple months younger
He will be pretty good. But that’s as good as he will ever be.
Yes a good rotational starter, which im not sure is what the Warriors need anymore.
Idc what Warriors fans say, their championship window is closed.
You aren’t the first person to say that.
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Maybe, but I doubt it. I was never into Knecht, I never saw a pathway for him being anything more a volume 3pt shooter. I think Yaxel brings more to the game right now than Dalton ever could
I’m hopeful about Yaxel too. He took his time to work up the transfer ladders but he was always productive. It’s more of a red flag for me when an older prospect didn’t do anything until that final year (Joe Alexander comes to mind there).
Similar in age, but that’s about it.
Knecht was never an NBA prospect until his super-senior year, while Yaxel was projected as a first round pick before he decided to take the NIL money and transfer to Michigan.
Draft models loved Yaxel, putting him in the top 10. He does a ton of different things well on both sides of the ball.
From ESPN last year:
It’s rare for a projected first-round pick to forgo the NBA draft in favor of an additional season in college, but the 22-year old Lendeborg’s unique backstory contributed to his decision. He played only 11 varsity high school games as a senior and was moved across the country to a small junior college in Arizona by his mother after standing out in an exposure camp for Dominican players in New York. “I was more into video games than basketball for most of my life,” Lendeborg told ESPN. “I would play 19 hours a day; it was a religion for me. I wasn’t the best student. My mom forced me to get on a plane to Arizona. That was the best thing that ever happened to me.
It’s rare for a projected first-round pick to forgo the NBA draft in favor of an additional season in college, but the 22-year old Lendeborg’s unique backstory contributed to his decision. He played only 11 varsity high school games as a senior and was moved across the country to a small junior college in Arizona by his mother after standing out in an exposure camp for Dominican players in New York.
“I was more into video games than basketball for most of my life,” Lendeborg told ESPN. “I would play 19 hours a day; it was a religion for me. I wasn’t the best student. My mom forced me to get on a plane to Arizona. That was the best thing that ever happened to me.
In contrast, draft models hated Knecht, usually leaving him out of the top 30. He was pretty much just a scorer, and his efficiency wasn’t even great.
For example, ESPN’s Kevin Pelton has been projecting draft prospects for decades. His stats-only model had Knecht as the 76th best draft prospect, and stats/scouting combined model had him 35th.
In addition to the top 30, it’s worth digging into this year’s most notable projection: Knecht, a sure top-10 pick, rated below replacement level based on his stats. One of the factors that makes my projections unique is weighing earlier seasons more heavily because of the importance of excelling at a young age. Knecht didn’t emerge as an above-average college player until his second season at Northern Colorado, after two in junior college, and wasn’t considered a first-round NBA prospect until averaging 21.7 PPG last season at Tennessee. Beyond that, Knecht’s low rates of assists, steals and blocks hurt his projection. His combined rate of those three nonscoring contributions is lowest for any player ranked in ESPN’s top 30. Of the 10 players in my database whose statistical profile were most similar to Knecht’s, just two (Joe Harris and Danuel House Jr.) played 1,000 minutes in the NBA.
In addition to the top 30, it’s worth digging into this year’s most notable projection: Knecht, a sure top-10 pick, rated below replacement level based on his stats. One of the factors that makes my projections unique is weighing earlier seasons more heavily because of the importance of excelling at a young age. Knecht didn’t emerge as an above-average college player until his second season at Northern Colorado, after two in junior college, and wasn’t considered a first-round NBA prospect until averaging 21.7 PPG last season at Tennessee.
Beyond that, Knecht’s low rates of assists, steals and blocks hurt his projection. His combined rate of those three nonscoring contributions is lowest for any player ranked in ESPN’s top 30. Of the 10 players in my database whose statistical profile were most similar to Knecht’s, just two (Joe Harris and Danuel House Jr.) played 1,000 minutes in the NBA.
Is this like the diet version of Tim Duncan (and might we see more of this?), where a player literally would be a lottery pick (in Tim’s case the #1 pick) for one or multiple years but went back to school (for whatever the reason may be)?
Tim was such a unique case, so it still probably won’t be #1 picks, but the NIL makes it more likely that guys don’t go as quickly as possible to the NBA which in turn would force some recalibration in how to take age of certain prospects into account.
i don’t think yaxel was going to be a lottery pick if he didn’t go to michigan, though. i remember lots of mock drafts had him in the mid to late 20s, though who knows what would have happened if he stayed. either way, seems like he got the best case scenario of “shit ton of NIL money” and being a lottery pick
Warriors so old even the rookie is unc before he plays a single NBA game
First Roty with gray hair
First rookie of the year to come into the league telling the kids to get off his lawn
“rookie of the year”
wat
Rationally, I know not to expect too much from him
Irrationally, that name is too good for him to not be an impact player for 15 years
Yaxel lendenborg who just also happens to be a foreign player aswell(nationality/ethnicity wise)
Crazy to think he’s only a year younger than Ant
LeBron had 14,000 points before age 25
You know a lot of people go to college for 6 years
Yeah, Doctors
Oh shit he can be Dr. Y.
Dr. L sounds bad lol
Lolol Dr L
Damn, didn’t know Julius Erving went to school for that long
Bro better have an MBA or some shit lmao wtf
Jalen Duren is still 22.
The Heat have excelled with four year players like Jaquez Jr and Pelle Larsson. Yaxel will be fine.
My hot take is I’d rather have a 22–23 year old who’s more NBA ready than a wildcard on some 19 year old who hasn’t grown into their yet once I hit picks 12-20
Definitely a hot take because I can’t think of more than about 3 successful vet prospects that have been drafted in the last 10-20 years (in that sort of range)
Do you want to look lower in the draft? You can easily find White, Brooks, Brunson, Butler and on and on in the late 20s and 30s. All older prospects and it took 8 seconds to think of them. Even Ajay Mitchell was older than most prospects.
None of those players were as old as yaxel is lol
Yeah thanks a bunch but i was actually referring to the 12-20 range stated and i made that clear in my comment. I do know that there’s older players late in the draft
You’re boxing yourself into a very narrow parameter by only looking at 22+ year-olds in the 12-20 draft range. Worth considering the meta was drafting projects you could extend after their rookie deals, whereas the current CBA puts pressure on extracting value immediately. Outlier prospects like Yaxel are outliers for a reason and that makes their progression difficult to project compared to other players with the same profile.
Cam Johnson comes to mind, who else do you have?
Just slightly earlier than said range but Mikal Bridges was definitely older for a rookie iirc
I don’t think that’s a hot take at all. The Warriors took him at 11 which was his expected floor. They and other teams would clearly prefer the sure thing over a late-first-project. Looking at players of these archetypes from just the last few years, everyone would rather have Jaime Jaquez than AJ Johnson.
But what about a 24 year old prospect?
I agree with this and also for the NFL. But I guess one of the negatives to this is let’s say you draft a 22-year-old versus the 19 year old and then two years later the 24-year-old just doesn’t pan out as opposed to the younger guy where you have a larger window for them to develop and pan out?
I mean I don’t know what the stats are on drafting players and actually seeing them through to where they get to a point that they are developed enough to where you want them to be but yeah
I don’t know because I think usually the argument is “we already know what this older player is” - and if that older player isn’t already pretty solid then… Why would you want the older guy? That’s kind of my mindset I guess. As opposed to a young guy who has what you’re looking for and shows flashes and you say to yourself “damn give this kid two or three years and he’ll be incredible” type of thing. And then he ends up being the same age as the vet when you would have drafted him just a hell of a lot better lol
I’d rather someone like Brayden Burries in the lottery. He’s an older prospect but still just turned 21, so has 3 years of potential development before he hits Yaxel’s age currently.
Name the last NBA ready 22 year old who didn’t fizzle out
I’m sure there’s more but instantly thought of Desmond bane being the 30th pick at 22 years old
Bane, Lillard and Brogdon
It is kind of crazy remembering guys like Lillard and Bane were thought of as older draftees and Yaxel is 2 years older than they were.
Andrew Nemhard is an easy one
Jaime jaquez jr
Buddy Hield is one of the best most recent examples. He was a 24 year old rookie. His career hasn’t set the world on fire, but is very solid. I think you need to be a transcendent level player as a senior to pan out in the NBA, if you’re just kind of solid…it’s dubious.
Damian Lillard is the benchmark as far as upper class men All NBA players drafted high. That was 2012**
Mikal Bridges was a Junior drafted 10th in 2018 so that’s sort of a comp to Yaxel as far as pick position.
Cam Johnson isn’t exactly setting the roof on fire but he was a Senior drafted 11th in 2019 and he’s a damn solid starter who has pretty much started every game he’s played in for 4 seasons in a row.
Those are the comps. Some solid starters. But you’re not expecting superstars obviously.
Lillard would be great but even he was 22 when he played his first game while Yaxel will be 24.
Players who turned 22 before the end of their rookie seasons: Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, Brandon Roy, Desmond Bane, CJ McCollum, Malcolm Brogdon, Andrew Nembhard, Kenyon Martin, Shane Battier, ayshaun Prince, Kirk Hinrich, Nick Collison, Jameer Nelson, Tony Allen, Kevin Martin, Channing Frye, Danny Granger, David Lee, Al Horford, Jeff Green, Joakim Noah, Jared Edudley, Brook Lopez, Taj Gibson, Larry Sanders, Kemba Walker, Klay Thompson, Kenneth Faried, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, Jae Crowder, Derrick White, Mikal Bridges, Donte DiVincenzo, Jalen Brunson, Trey Murphy, Jaime Jaquez, Toumani Camara, Payton Pritchard, Cam Johnson.
Alright now do the list for 24 year olds lol
Still more decent than you might expect! Jamaal Tinsley, Brian Scalabrine, Matt Barnes, Nick Collison,Steve Blake, Marcin Gortat, Rudy Fernandez, Tiago Splitter, Carl Landry, Nikola Pekovic, Omer Asik, Tyler Hansbrough, Nikola Mirotic, Bojan Bogdanovic, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Buddy Hield, Malcolm Brogdon, Cam Johnson, and Chris Duarte.
Here are some good old rookies (23+ in their debut)
Ryan Kalbrenner last year was great (he got 11th in all rookie, but idk if that’s enough to move him into the lottery)
2024 I don’t think we have anybody who would have been a lottery pick but Tristain da Silva wasn’t a bad pick at 18
Toumani Camara the year before that (would be a lottery pick)
Andrew Nembhard the year before that (would be a lottery pick)
Herb Jones the year before that (would be a lottery pick)
Payton Pritchard (Would be a lottery pick)
Prigioni was 35 and was good
Draymond Green
That was our mindset when we drafted Knecht 🥲
Historically you can know whether a player is NBA caliber by 17-19. Yes, you will find good 22 year olds that flew under the radar and players that didn’t meet their potential or were just bad picks as young players but the NBA is the easiest sport to scout prospects.
I think this way for a contending team, a developmental team should make bigger swings. The Warriors are neither however so it’s whatever.
Lillard was drafted pretty late because he was older. Took home ROY and the rest is history
6th overall is considered pretty late???
My bad. Aparently everytime you remember a memory it gets more and more wrong. Mustve bumped him down a spot or 7 in my head lmao
Blazers have used this strategy with a lot of success over the years. Roy, Lillard, and McCollum were all 22 year old rookies. Toumani Camara was 23.
Yaxel could be quite good but the list of NBA players who got drafted at his age is…. not impressive. The one thing Yaxel has going for him is he started playing basketball later than most, so he has somewhat of a excuse and more room for improvement than the usual low-ceiling older prospect. It will be interesting to watch this unfold one way or the other.
Hoping Yaxel is the expection as the oldest rookie out of college to be a solid NBA starter.
Career already halfway over
He’s literally the only reason I’ll still be tuning into the warriors I hope he has a good season
Lmao not Steph?
Steph is no Yaxel ofc
You won’t tune in for Podz?
Happy birthday, Yaxel
JJ McCarthy getting traded the other day reminded me that he’s just 23 years old. It he feels like he’s already had a whole damn career with all the drama and craziness w/ the Vikes, and it’s hilarious to think that he’s still younger than an NBA draftee.
Happy birthday Yaxel, good luck on the upcoming NBA season
I’m surprised at how good this kid looks. It’s like he knows exactly what to do and is very athletic. I think the Warriors made an excellent decision drafting him with their FRP.
He’s only been playing ball for 5 years. I’m buying high on his potential
Damn… dudes already past his prime and he hasnt even played a game yet lol
steve kerr already hates him
has he improved his shooting this season or nah
Hella old head