Baseball Savant’s newest Statcast metric evaluates how good first basemen are at receiving throws. It analyzes the hundreds of opportunities hurled their way and gives you a visualization of how hard the position is.
It’s incredibly hard
Tell em, Wash
What about the fans?
I’m also incredibly hard. Thanks for asking.
How does this help you at first base though? 🤔
I’m struggling to think of ways it doesn’t help, tbh. Here are a couple of examples:
Guy gets to first, takes his lead. Looks over and sees my situation. Is he really going to want to dive bag in to the bag when I’m going to be dropping that hammer down on a tag? Forget slide steps, one glance and their running game is toast.
Now think about bunting. Bunting is difficult for guys today, right? Now imagine how difficult it is to bunt 100 mph cutter when I’m charging in full blast and full mast from the right side.
I could go on. But I have some thing I need to take care of.
I’ll be in my locker room
Also if Bill Buckner had that big ol’ wang hanging low, he knocks down that Mookie grounder. Curse broken.
turns a stretch into a tripod, more stable that way
Yeah. Maybe I can teach one of them.
I wonder if they have the receiving OAA for Scott Hatteberg.
hundreds of opportunities sounds like a ton of reps
one joke
big dom smith metric
see? two jokes
The various categories a throw to first base can fall into.
https://preview.redd.it/xexxqny0kqlh1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=31417d7d9ce994ca0ac0ff4b6edb46617098d6f7
This stat is a good idea but from breakdowns and analysis I’ve seen I don’t think it’s all there yet. A lot of it is just correlation to who has the most accurate guys throwing to them, and many of the plays that 1st baseman are being heavily penalized for are ones where they really aren’t doing anything wrong.
Yea there was a play where Vladdy received a full -1 OAA on a ball that he had absolutely zero chance to stretch to in time to get the runner. I’m more skeptical of this one than pretty much all other statcast metrics.
Idk I think it’s perfect, no notes. No bias here
Agreed considering the heaters he catches from Masyn on the regular
Care to link to this?
Sure thing
He didn’t even full stretch and reach for the ball. Just casually received it near his hip. And his step was a poor angle to the ball.
Seems debatable how much negative value he should receive, but that wasn’t solid first base receiving.
https://preview.redd.it/05qlw66euqlh1.jpeg?width=1266&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1188f7cc5db21c99c8a3b45958d1790a1d6cf9ed
There is no world where this is ever an out. At a certain point as a 1B your mind has to go from getting the out, to preventing the ball from getting past you (as Vlad did perfectly fine here). This metric gives no credence to that second part of the equation.
Yeah, if anything, I’d give Vlad credit here on realizing there would be no out, and just making sure he made it as easy as possible on himself to scoop it.
This is correct.
He didn’t adjust, he went to catch the ball and took a poor step and did not reach. He looks to the umpire immediately after the catch to see the call. If he knew the runner as safe and was blocking the ball, why did he stay on the bag and immediately look at the umpire.
You can debate what the negative value should be assessed and whether it would have mattered to this particular play.
My point is that was not good first base play. it was not a heads’up let’s block the ball as the runner will be safe play. It was a lazy effort.
He looked to the umpire because he was calling time lol and where else would he look? There’s nothing else going on on the field.
He looks to the ump, turns and points to Gimenez, takes two steps off the bag, and looking at the mound then raises his hands to call time.
Why wouldn’t he look to the ump, even knowing the outcome of the play? There’s nothing else going on on the field, and his training is to look to the ump to get the call.
We can’t rag on players for assuming outcomes and missing opportunities, then also rag on players for ascertaining outcomes from officials.
Huh? Runner was already on first lol he’d have to be 15 feet tall to receive that ball in time.
I think this comment is actually important… In demonstrating that a first base man’s length is an asset. Vladdy can stretch fine and he’s not short, per se, but first base does favor tall left handed players. This particular instance is probably not being converted by anyone, but there are going to be some that are convertible by a taller, lefty 1B that Vladdy simply won’t be able to.
It seems to be really poor validation to not look at extreme outliers and ask if those plays are logical. Looks like there’s some issue with not correctly identifying the earliest and/or average time a first basemen is able to catch the ball relative to the runner reaching safely.
Did you see Petriello’s article when they released this? Very helpful context.
https://www.mlb.com/news/breaking-down-first-base-throw-receiving-data
I did, but there are still enough examples that have been found of questionable rulings that I’m still unsure of how seriously this number should be taken.
At the very least, it should be seen as part of a larger picture and not taken as gospel.
Gor small sample sizes maybe, but if you aggregate entire season or many seasons the picture will be clear right? Even without other stats for a larger picture.
Plus a good number of infelders utilize a bounce throw on purpose. If a team has even 1 guy that loves a bounce throw, it’s going to give the 1B more easy OOA.
Totally agree. I wish I saved it, but there was a great tweet that gave video examples, of negative plays, for the first baseman where the throw was late.
There’s no reason a first baseman should be punished for that.
k but who are the bottom 5
https://preview.redd.it/goftb6g7iqlh1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fad95c4c6671d23071c33e184da85f71c60147cf
Can’t play Bruce Hooper anywhere in the field anymore it seems
he’s fine, definitely below average but not unplayable. I don’t think this single stat is the end-all-be-all. Like by overall by OAA Alec Burleson is ranked #27 out of 39.
By the eye test there’s not very often where I watch Bryce and think “wow he really fucked us over there” or “he’s costing us games at 1B”.
He was actually positive in fielding OAA at 1st base for 2023(+1), 2024(+8), and 2025 (+1). I think there may be a wee bit too much noise in the fielding stats at 1st to take super seriously.
I wonder how much it takes into account the players that are giving him a chance to make a “receiving” play on the ball. Like Stott and Bohm with overwhelmingly low DRS
Just based off my memory Trea has sailed way more balls and Stott being low on DRS is hilarious considering he had the highest fielding percentage ever for a second basemen around the all-star break with over 4000 attempts and the eye test alone would tell you that’s bullshit
Sailing balls wouldn’t effect this because it only goes 7 feet high
I don’t watch Phillies games everyday but I do watch from time to time and I thought he was a pretty good first baseman. Def thought no way he would be worse than Devers lol
Tbf -.99 of that is from a play that Cristopher Sanchez was the one receiving… and he was successful.
It’s pretty flawed to this point
You’re gonna need a bigger infield.
But our sub’s Torkleson slander!
I was very happy to not see him on there lol.
This is why Sal doesn’t deserve the rookie award. He’s absolutely shite without the bat (in one of, if not the easiest positions in baseball)
To be fair JJ, has been pretty horrible with the bat for over 2 months now. And 2B is significantly easier than SS or 3B
A gold glove 2B (could even be platinum) with a small difference in OPS is worth way more in baseball.
If Sal played 81 games at Busch OR JJ did 81 at GABP their bats would be much much closer ++ JJ would still be light years better on defense
He has 3 errors all year, Wetherholt has 2. Sal played 1⁄3 of his games at 3B. The fielding difference doesnt make up for Sal being a significantly better batter and a top tier cleanup (over 1.000 OPS with RISP)
Part of the whole point of this post is that there’s a lot more to defense than just errors. He might only have one more error, but Wetherholt has 22 OAA and he has 0 across all positions for the season. I think that fielding difference actually does make up for Sal being a significantly better hitter. If I could lower a random player on my team’s OPS by 85 points but add 22 OAA, I’d take it.
Edit to add: sorry for being repetitive, but the error point really doesn’t capture much nuance here. There are so many plays where fielding quality makes a difference that don’t result in an error, which is why one of them is a precisely average fielder this season and the other is #3 in MLB by OAA but they’re only separated by statistical noise on errors.
2 MIL players oof how can they be doing so well if their 1b can’t receive the ball/s
Absolutely shocked Josh Naylor is not in the bottom 10
So this means Cashman was right, right?
Don’t show this to Mets fans
And Mets and orioles fans will still bend themselves into pretzels arguing that Pete isn’t a below average defensive first baseman
Here is a visual representation of Baseball Savant’s Receiving OAA metrics for Alec Burelson.
https://reddit.com/link/p60tax1/video/kgb9x802jqlh1/player
This comment needs be higher. Such a good visualization
Just so there is at least ONE comment about Alec Burleson:
Alec Burleson is truly one of the most under-appreciated players in the game. A solid glove & a fearsome hitter whose underlying metrics suggest he is a breakout star in the making. Check the dude’s Savant page. It’s legitimately impressive. He has a 139 OPS+ & is heavily underperforming his expected outcomes.
He’s also leading the league in expected homeruns missed versus actual. Something like 7 homeruns, due to Busch being the most offensively suppressive parks in the league.
I love watching the guy hit. He can hit anything in or out of the zone! He’s so underrated. Good thing is people are finally starting to notice!
https://preview.redd.it/ccmdkoxqzqlh1.jpeg?width=2532&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=67a6cb994a9d0f9fad376efd1a2bd880800a297e
I was skeptical of him at first but the fact that he’s improved every year is extremely impressive.
There were rumors the Dbacks were trying to get him at the Trade Deadline. Instead were using Tim Taaawaaa (yes that’s a triple A joke; he’s been doing a little better lately, but he shouldn’t be starting for a playoff contending team at such an important position like 1B).
Absolutely crazy how Freddie goes into the freaking splits to receive some of the throws. I guess man’s gotta be that flexible if he’s seriously being told to do the worm at a party lol
I just watched him make two errors in the first inning last night lol
Yeah but those weren’t throws from his team mates, so he’s still the GOAT according to this stat!
His flexibility is especially impressive given Freeman’s odometer.
Wash would be proud
Shockingly, Eric Hosmer sucked at receiving throws.
Quite.
It’s a really solid first attempt at measuring 1B defense but I have to say, I really think they missed the mark with the Receiving OAA score.
There’s so many examples where the throw was bad resulting in a safe call or the runner beating a slowly hit ball that gets counted against the 1B. It seems like it rewards IF defense more than 1B defense.
For example, Matt Olson received -0.74 OAA for this play https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=9e98d386-b041-3763-a1e0-0342a67275bb
Bounce/Scoop/Low/High/Wide seem more in-line with what we think of when we imagine 1B defense.
I also think including metrics like stretch length (similar to extension for pitchers) would be great to see.
Isn’t the issue he stepped early and too far up the line and was significantly out of position to reach a throw he otherwise could have caught more easily and in time to make the out.
Imo, that’s on the throw. Riley threw it to the RF side of the bag instead of more towards the 1B line like one would expect from that angle as he was charging in.
Olson had to adjust to his right to even make the catch because the throw was off-target.
You could make the argument that he was set too early but if he doesn’t set early, he likely doesn’t get a good stretch given the smaller distance on the throw.
Thats the point though. He stepped too early.
If the throw is on target, it’s a non-issue. So he’s penalized because he had to adjust to a bad throw. Whereas the 3B receives no penalty for the bad throw.
I just think the blame is placed incorrectly.
He’s penalized because the algorithm expects major league first baseman to adjust more often than not to this throw.
But because he stepped early, he was unable to adjust.
Okay. You believe it’s the first baseman’s fault.
Alec Burleson received -0.85 OAA for this play. What is the 1B supposed to do?
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=999a6d8b-025f-33f3-b6e6-22f455e4fb33
I believe the model estimates that given the variables of that play, it is expected to be an out more often than not.
I think it’s wrong to say the model is assigning fault to plays. That’s not what outs above average is trying to quantify.
It’s called 1B Receiving Outs Above Average. The name inherently applies praise or fault. Just look at the title of this post.
The two clips I posted assign blame (negative OAA) to the first baseman on plays that they had almost no impact on. An out was not recorded hence the negative score which I believe is your point. I don’t believe the math is wrong, I believe the presentation/framing of the math is wrong.
My point is that those plays (and others like it) largely have nothing do with with the first baseman and lie more with the IF fielding/throwing the ball or the runner simply beating out the throw.
The plays that score scoops/bounces seem more accurate.
I’m not sure that assigning blame to the throw or the runner can account for your issues, since this new methodology generates its out probabilities from the speed of the runner and the location of the runner and the ball when it gets within ~stretch range.
Infielders are still getting positive or negative credit for the distance they have to cover and whether the ball becomes an out, so it’s not right to say the other infielders receive no penalty for bad throws.
The example plays you’ve come up with certainly look out of the first baseman’s hands at first glance, but I’m definitely open to the idea that statcast is picking up something I’m not when it minutely measures the distance between ball and bag.
In the aggregate. It’s a tool meant to measure the effectiveness of first baseman over a large number of plays.
Given the variables of the plays linked, the model estimates most first baseman create an out there, so not creating one, is negative OAA.
OAA’s reasonableness will breakdown over small sample sizes.
That said, the two plays you linked, it can be seen why the model expects positive out values. The first play, first basemen at this level usually wait to step once they know where the throw is going. The second, if he wasn’t contorted weirdly, he had time to get back to the base before the runner, so the model assumes an out most of the time.
Defensive metrics are still a joke, thanks for giving my anecdotal statement some ammunition
Yeah, I don’t think they are a joke. Most do a pretty great job measuring what they are trying to measure. Defense has more variables than other aspects of the game that they get downplayed because they aren’t as precise.
I think the 1B defense stats are great, just disagree with how they score some of the plays on the Receiving OAA. The rest of the data included look solid.
Golden Receivers
They are also often nice guys wanting to chat with everyone on the opposing team as well just like the dog.
I feel like Freddie probably gives amazing hugs
All I know is when I was playing, certain first baseman made me look good. As a middle infielder knowing your first baseman will get his glove on anything close, it give you confidence to throw even when I’m off balance. That’s a lot of outs left on the table when I’m eating those balls cause I don’t trust my first baseman to get a glove on it and leave the bag when necessary-in the end if he doesn’t get my bad throw, it’s on me
Damn Yuli hasn’t even been in the league for a few years. Good for him.
Incredibly underrated player
If only he’d gotten here younger.
Interesting how bad Bryce is according to this. Weird thing where I didn’t expect him to be high, and even expected below average maybe, but I certainly didn’t expect last. Like I don’t really find myself thinking very often “wow Bryce really fucked that up”.
Also kind of hard to tell, but to my eyes some of the misses on the visual that are dinging him look like terrible throws.
Harper is not good at this but a big part of the reason he is so low is because of Bohm and Turner throwing to him. The main reason that Alec Bohm is doing better at this stat when he plays 1st is because he’s not receiving throws from Alec Bohm.
The main reason that Alec Bohm is doing better at this stat when he plays 1st is because he’s not receiving throws from Alec Bohm.
Duality of man
right, like I don’t really think very often “that was a decent throw that Bryce fucked up.” It’s usually “that was an hard-to-awful throw”. I can’t think of very often that I’ve thought “bryce is costing us games at first”, even if I know he’s below average. I think this stat is certainly interesting, but it’s definitely not the end-all-be-all or whole picture
He’s short for a 1B. Small target to throw to and can’t stretch as far or corral as many throws that go high.
The metric gives a sense of this - his expected outs on throws is only 91.7%, which looks way lower than all the other primary first basemen. His actual conversion is 384⁄427 for just under 90%.
Josh Naylor is the one I watch the most and I expected horrible expected numbers based on seeing JP Crawford and Colt Emerson throw to him all year, but apparently his expected is 94% (still low but not crazy). I did always think he passes the eye test on being a good receiver and the stats bear that out here.
We need more metrics like this
Pretty damn impressive for it being Burlesons first year being the primary First Basemen.
The thing about advanced stats is 9 out of 10 times they reveal that players you already knew were good are, in fact, good.
But that 1 out of 10 time is where they eat.
There would probably be something really wrong with a statistic if it didn’t match reality. Like the players with the highest WAR are always really good players (or performed really well). What their utility is that they measure how good players are in relation to each other. Saying who the best couple receivers are is doable, showing that the top two are almost 2x better than the next 3 is what’s important.
Here is a visual representation of Baseball Savant’s Receiving OAA metrics for Freddie Freeman.
https://reddit.com/link/p60sxq9/video/q0owvbpriqlh1/player
Curious how Naylor grades out because he’s a fucking saint for the throws he puts up with from our infield. A man that large shouldn’t have to do the splits that often.
Shared 5th or 6th- definitely above average. It’s just from watching games, but I’ve always been skeptical when other defensive metrics rate him so lowly when our infield can barely field.
What’s great is that it proves the haters wrong weirdly about Pete Alonso.
We knew he was great at receiving last three years. Yep. He was.
This year he’s worse at it but a good fielder. So either way he was on balance, okay!
All the Mets had to do was ask him to dedicate himself towards his footwork and range and he would have. Annoying.
I also have a sneaking suspicion this stat took a small hit because he’s received a handful of bad throws this season, many from Gunnar who has something like 15 errors.
Freddie’s range isn’t the greatest, but the dude gives the full body on the stretches and scoops
Tork defenders are gonna FLIP
Because he’s only 2 OAA here and not the incredible scooper they think?
The blog post about this talks about that. Tork may be a great scooper, but that doesn’t actually matter much overall because there aren’t many scoop opportunities. Less than 10/year for most first basemen.
I guess scoop wasn’t the right word here. Tork defenders believe he is incredible at what this stat allegedly tracks outside of just scoops. Over the last 2 years he’s 1 OAA in this metric (-1 last year and +2 this year). That is the completely opposite of what Torks defenders seem to believe.
Pretty sure this is the only reason Manzo was on the Guardians for so long this year. I always thought he was above average at first. This mildly confirms that.
He definitely was not above average at first last year. This year saw some real improvement that his plate struggles have really overshadowed
Those string cheese legs help Freddie a lot.
It was quite the pivot from FF deal falling through. I still can’t really get my head around it. It will be 20+ straight years of a 6’5 HOF first baseman in Atlanta by the time it’s all over. Incredible.
I forgot if it was ‘24 or ‘25 but I swear everything thrown to Freddie that year was ankle high. Which was only notable because he had just had ankle surgery for ‘slipping’ in the shower in off season.
Hey! We’re winning something!
Is Kurtz really gonna finish in 3rd on this list when he hasn’t fieldes consistently since June?? Lol. Well I can tell you watching him go, it pays to be tall. If you’re an Olympic gymnast and can break laws of physics with your legs that also makes you a good 1B
Mets fans that were always telling people Pete was quite good at receiving throws.
Count me among the Mets fans who think that’s bullshit. He sucks over there
It’s been said on the Dodgers sub for awhile that a lot of Mookie’s more… interesting throws only work because Freeman is so tall or because he’s able to just get so low for those tough scoops. I’m happy to see the eye test is validated
For anyone curious. Bryce is the worst with -8 Receiving OAA and Devers is behind him with -5.
I’m pretty interested in looking into this more. I’ve seen some plays that I don’t really think should have resulted in +.25 or +0.5 OAA (for the 1B). Curious to learn more
This is actually a third baseman stat
Put the big guy at first they say. Its easy they say. Until anything happens at first and the first basemen moves as if his are stuck in a foot of mud.
I’m old. I don’t get it. ELI5.
Are they going to subtract value from infielders for bad throws now even if the first baseman saved them?
Does the scaling of this track with other OAA calculations? Can Freddie Freeman merely receiving the ball be worth the same as an entire Brice Matthews or Jarren Duran? Is Freeman a top 40 fielder in all of baseball this year because of this (2 oaa fielding + 5 receiving) instead of somewhere around 100? As a corollary, is 1B receiving now the new catcher framing and we should value it above all other skills by a 1B (potentially including hitting) to prioritize the best receivers at the position?
Or have I not understood what these numbers mean.
Keith Hernandez should be in the HoF
I remember 25 years ago reading a blog post by a guy who was convinced, absolutely convinced, that Mo Vaughn was killing the Angels because he was so bad at picking balls. He went through the data he had to make his case, comparing year-to-year throwing errors, and it was pretty convincing. Surprising that it took so long to improve on that.
This doesn’t give a ‘visualization’ though. They’re just numbers.
How does this factor in the types of throws they’re receiving. Like for example, if Freeman gets more bad throws than Olson then wouldn’t that give him more chances to make good plays and boost his score above him? Or does it not work like that?
Tell ‘em Wash
Thanks for telling us what “OAA” stands for. Oh wait, you didn’t.
Outs Above Average. It has become a pretty standard defensive metric in the Statcast Era. Not exactly an obscure acronym like it once was.
Would never have pegged Freddy as a guy who likes receiving
Freddie is so great at this I love it!
I’ve seen him miss I think one dig this season (and he still kept it in front of him) and then he’s also so tall I’ve also only seen him miss one overthrow.
Alonso receives an entire -1.0 OAA on a play where he wasnt even the one covering first base
Freddie Freeman is among the tallest infielders in the league and is within striking distance of the all time record for most games played at first base. Given the combination of reach and sheer number of reps, I’m not surprised he’s become very good at catching everything thrown his way.
The nerds are at it again
Nice that there’s a way to quantify it. You can see pretty easily whenever someone Thats not Freddie plays first for the dodgers and everything goes to shit
This justifies my narrative that Freddie is fighting for his life out there and has made insane plays, regardless of the other defensive metrics pointing to him being last.
That means I’m gonna use it
The best first baseman in baseball on top yet again! Balanced as all things should be.
Can’t wait to not even watch baseball anymore and have it just be an Excel statistic spreadsheet simulator like the rest of my life.