ben3345 | Knicks

580 | 8 hours ago

The east might eat itself alive in the regular season but I’d be surprised if at least one of those teams doesn’t go over 53 wins

Asleep_Ground1710 | Bulls

179 | 8 hours ago

I still kinda expect Detroit to be a strong regular season team due to their youth + hustle + defense. That always guarentees lots of wins in regular season

They still havent really meaningfully addressed their lack of shooting though. Like yeah Joe and Collins helps, but doesnt move the needle imo

hunteddwumpus | Pistons

47 | 7 hours ago

I agree with your conclusion that were gonna struggle in the playoffs but we’ve addressed our shooting like… a lot. Keeping Duncan Robinson (when there was a lot of buzz we were releasing him for cap space), adding Joe as another sharpshooter, and swapping Harris for Collins is 2 more guys who will see a lot of minutes who are much better shooters than the minutes were last year. Thats a lot of shooting imo.

We actually got worse at secondary creator tho unless somebody already on roster takes a Jalen Johnson sized leap

NazReidRules | Timberwolves

8 | 5 hours ago

Collins is pretty underrated IMO. Wanted Wolves to trade Randle for him for a minute. He tends to be a very efficient scorer, and catch-all stats tend to love him. Bang average defender overall? I think he’ll be a very nice fit for you

hunteddwumpus | Pistons

5 | 5 hours ago

Yeah some people were moaning we swapped Harris for Collins but imo Collins is pretty great fit with Cade. Excellent shooter and some rim running capability. Harris is probably a slightly better defender and while he can create more than Collins he’s a bit of a black hole. When he’s creating its for himself, he very rarely creates looks for others so losing his creation isnt that big a deal. Tho obviously we still need an actual offensive #2 guy

Snacktyme | Pistons

3 | 5 hours ago

I think we see better shooting from a handful of guys that we already have as well. Especially Cade.

SloshaPacana

23 | 8 hours ago

They need a second creator just as much if not more than shooting, Cade is not good enough to be a heliocentric offense

Their 2nd best creator last year was Tobias Harris

But their style of play is perfect for regular season, they’ll win a lot of games again and people will expect too much out of them

No-Ranger3356

33 | 7 hours ago

he is good enough, but even those heliocentric teams have a secondary creator

the pistons do not

CarBallAlex | Celtics

47 | 7 hours ago

I think these lists are heavily influenced by recency bias. Like the Knicks didn’t finish 1st last season and they just replaced Mitchell Robinson with Andre Drummond and did nothing else of significance to their roster. Most championship teams win less games because every other team is giving them their best shot and there’s the mental aspect of “we can do it again if we just get to the playoffs” and tend to take games off.

And we think in a stronger East they’re going to win the same amount of games? Why doesn’t that logic apply to the Celtics here? Sure they lost Brown but they get a full season of Tatum, and they addressed their biggest need adding a Center. They could get half a season out of Paul George and that’s still more than Tatum played. What’s the logic of them winning 8 less games?

These people just remember the playoffs and pick numbers out of a hat. They want to confirm the Knicks are the best team in the East and it feels disrespectful to put another team above them, but the regular season is about depth to sustain injuries, not top end talent. Which is exactly what the Celtics have and why everyone who expected them to be in the lottery or play-in winded up winning 56 games last year. Tatum went down and they got great production out of their young bench wings. They moved off 3 of their Centers and got great production out of Queta and Garza. And people think injury prone Paul George is going to derail our team when we have Hauser, Gonzalez, Scheierman, Walsh, and Ron Harper Jr back there, all guys we played last year and did just fine.

There just aren’t consistencies with these records.

Kingcanute99

7 | 5 hours ago

Yeah Raptors won 46 last season, swapped BI for Kawhi Leonard, can expect improvement from young players, but win less this year? I’ll take the over.

Celtics for sure as well - JB for PG may have been a tough trade, but PG + JT is better than just JB.

Some of the dynamic here is one of these teams will have a bad injury and go WAY under, which will open up room for several others to land a few games over these predictions.

TheBillsFly | TOR

6 | 4 hours ago

Taking the Over on Raptors season wins has been a massively winning bet for a long time

King_Of_Pants | BOS

3 | 4 hours ago

And some teams are just easy to trust.

I wasn’t happy about the trade but the Celtics have beat the projected line 5 years straight and something like 10 of the past 11 years.

They’re a capable front office and well coached.

If they say they’ll be fine then that means more than anything coming from the likes of ESPN or Vegas.

1shmeckle | Knicks

4 | 7 hours ago

One thing to consider is that the Knicks went through a horrible slump last year after winning the cup. While this version of the Knicks will probably stay streaky, their record last year was probably misleading as without that slump (and some other losses due to adjusting to a new coach) they likely would have been a 57-60 win team (which also explains why they were somewhat underestimated when the playoffs started). This year, 53 seems like a reasonable number for a prediction given the loss of Mitch and the typical post championship fluctuations.

maybeAturtle

8 | 7 hours ago

It’s going to be so different now that losing isn’t incentivized. in a typical year Milwaukee and Brooklyn would gladly offer up 120 free wins to other teams, not they’ll not be incentivized to do so, so if you’re resting two starters against them you will have to fight for th W still.

TheAnswerEK42 | Magic

5 | 7 hours ago

I think it’s the new lottery rules bringing win totals down.

Feisty-Principle-216

2 | 7 hours ago

Yeah usually at.least one team stays healthy and has a great regular season. Just a matter of guessing who.

Detroit popped off for 60 last year. Cleveland 64 the year. Before. Boston (morr expected) 64 the year before.

Only twice in the last decade has no east team won at least 55. (Not counting covid season for obvious reaaon.)

jknuts1377 | Celtics

2 | 6 hours ago

Yeah, other than Milwaukee and Brooklyn, I can see a scenario where any of the other 13 teams have a chance to make the playoffs. The east will be exciting this year.

_onwards_and_upwards | Raptors

236 | 8 hours ago

Denver is gonna surprise some people and not in a good way

Prestigious_Team3134 | Nuggets

94 | 8 hours ago

The nuggets floor in the regular season is crazy high. Jokic won 48 games with a back court of washed will Barton, monte morris, facu campazo and Austin rivers.

Top-boy-og

91 | 8 hours ago

That was like 5 years ago, the league has gotten way better

westpawspike | Trail Blazers

3 | 5 hours ago

and Nuggets are part of that league, aren’t they

Grand-Gate-4374 | Lakers

17 | 8 hours ago

2020 was a way less talented time

twoyrsaway

11 | 7 hours ago

It was 22

Musa_2050 | Lakers

9 | 8 hours ago

I think Jokic shouldn’t be carrying that hard at this point in his career. We saw how bad they looked after he came back injured. Now they have even less depth.

Drunken_Vike | Timberwolves

18 | 7 hours ago

Jokic + Murray is enough to win a lot of games

danjustin | Nuggets

11 | 8 hours ago

Their starting 5 last year, in any metric you want to measure, was one of the best Denver teams of all time, flirting with some great league numbers.

I would expect if all 5 are healthy they win 75% of their games. If 4 of 5 are healthy (has to include Jokic), they will likely win 66% of their games.

Now it’s fully fair to say they don’t have the depth to A) survive the injuries and B) keep up with the elites who are in a more of a wave after wave style….and I can agree to all that

But the first part of this statement doesn’t change.

devotedhero | Wizards

7 | 6 hours ago

You think a fully healthy nuggets team wins 62 games? Seems extremely bold.

danjustin | Nuggets

5 | 5 hours ago

I mean, if the starting 5 played 82 games…yes. Every metric you could use backs that up. Net rating, +/-, etc.

Even use W/L metric:

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/s/hxfNtCaDLo

But we know they won’t play 82 games… So I think 50 is fair over/under. If gordon misses 40+ games, they need everyone else to play or it might get closer to 45

But your the perfect example of someone forgetting what their ceiling looks like, a ceiling that never even factored in Peyton Watson, Tim Hardaway, or Bruce Brown.

TheyMadeMeLogin

3 | 3 hours ago

They basically never lost when they had their starting 5 last year.

Knickstape08 | NYK

11 | 8 hours ago

I disagree. Braun missed half the last season with injury that effected his play he’ll be much better this year. Johnson missed a lot of time (I know he misses time but it was his first year and the chemistry never clicked till late). AG is going to miss time but if Jokic and Murray can play 70 games they will be high 40’s/low 50’s for wins. Derozan is going to be a huge addition for them. Guy never misses time and can drop 20 every night if they need him to. Strawther will also get a bigger role now that Brown and Hardaway are gone and I really like him I think he can be a great role player. I see a lot of questions for a lot of teams in the West, Denver at least has 2 All NBA players. Luka’s missed a lot of time the last two years, KD is 38, LaMelo has ankle issues. SA and OKC are the only no doubt amazing teams.

No_Function8686 | Warriors

13 | 6 hours ago

DeRozan will NOT be a huge addition to anyone. Ask the Spurs, Bulls or Kings. He’s a black hole on offense and not a good defender. Not a good 3p shooter at all.

Knickstape08 | NYK

11 | 6 hours ago

Well Denver isn’t asking him to be a #1/#2 option like those teams, he is going to come off the bench to provide scoring when Jokic is out.

I will almost guarantee he will easily win the 6th man of the year award as long as Denver stays healthy and doesn’t need to start him a lot. He doesn’t miss games, is used to playing heavy minutes, can score easily, he’s the perfect player for this Denver bench.

RS-Ironman-LuvGlove | Nuggets

5 | 5 hours ago

Reminds me of our signing of kcp.

We just got a VET that matches perfectly what we need off the bench. Right now our bench can defend but couldn’t score vs a JV highschool team without joker or Jamal out there.

No_Function8686 | Warriors

3 | 4 hours ago

KCP was a phenomenal defender. DeRozan is NOT that guy.

OUEngineer17 | Nuggets

10 | 7 hours ago

There’s been a lot of talk about the Nuggets downfall and how Jokic is being wasted. It seems like the surprise would be to match these predictions and finish as the 3 seed.

chasingit1 | Nuggets

5 | 8 hours ago

I will be surprised if we break 50 wins. Feels like a ⁴⁸⁄₄₉ win team and a #5 seed, #4 at best.

Would fucking LOVE to be wrong and we can break 50+ wins

ShowdownValue

3 | 3 hours ago

Everyone is down on Denver. So it won’t be a surprise to most.

Franii | Raptors

3 | 8 hours ago

The only people Denver is surprising would be the espn writers tbh

PeteJones6969 | Nuggets

2 | 3 hours ago

RemindMe! 8 months

btun88 | Thunder

177 | 8 hours ago

Here is a comparison of last year’s summer predictions versus the final standings.

Team	Pred. Seed	Pred. W-L	Actual Seed	Actual W-L	Grade
Oklahoma City Thunder	1	64-18	1	64-18	100.0%
Houston Rockets	2	54-28	5	52-30	97.6%
Denver Nuggets	3	53-29	3	54-28	98.8%
Minnesota Timberwolves	4	51-31	6	49-33	97.6%
LA Clippers	5	50-32	9	42-40	90.2%
Los Angeles Lakers	6	50-32	4	53-29	96.3%
Golden State Warriors	7	48-34	10	37-45	86.6%
Dallas Mavericks	8	44-38	12	26-56	78.0%
San Antonio Spurs	9	44-38	2	62-20	78.0%
Memphis Grizzlies	10	42-40	13	25-57	79.3%
Portland Trail Blazers	11	39-43	7	42-40	96.3%
Sacramento Kings	12	37-45	14	22-60	81.7%
Phoenix Suns	13	30-52	8	45-37	81.7%
New Orleans Pelicans	14	26-56	11	26-56	100.0%
Utah Jazz	15	19-63	15	22-60	96.3%

Team	Pred. Seed	Pred. W-L	Actual Seed	Actual W-L	Grade
Cleveland Cavaliers	1	59-23	4	52-30	91.5%
New York Knicks	2	54-28	3	53-29	98.8%
Orlando Magic	3	50-32	8	45-37	93.9%
Atlanta Hawks	4	47-35	6	46-36	98.8%
Detroit Pistons	5	47-35	1	60-22	84.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	6	46-36	11	32-50	82.9%
Boston Celtics	7	43-39	2	56-26	84.1%
Philadelphia 76ers	8	40-42	7	45-37	93.9%
Miami Heat	9	39-43	10	43-39	95.1%
Indiana Pacers	10	39-43	14	19-63	75.6%
Chicago Bulls	11	36-46	12	31-51	93.9%
Toronto Raptors	12	33-49	5	46-36	84.1%
Charlotte Hornets	13	26-56	9	44-38	78.0%
Brooklyn Nets	14	23-59	13	20-62	96.3%
Washington Wizards	15	20-62	15	17-65	96.3%

mr_buzzlightbeer | Nuggets

145 | 8 hours ago

That’s actually insanely accurate wow lol

Ok_Pineapple_Num | Warriors

122 | 7 hours ago

The ESPN predictions were decent, but I think the user’s usage of “percentages” as the evaluation makes the predictions seem better than they are.

Take the Mavs for example: ESPN predicted them at 44-38, but they ended up going 26-56. I think we’d all consider that a major miss: it’s the difference between a top 8 seed and firmly in the lottery, and an 18-win differential. But with percentages, it’s deemed a “78.0%”, which sounds decent even though the prediction was way off.

The raw 18-win differential better captures that it was a major miss.

The issue with the OP’s use of percentage is that they’re using 82 games as the divisor, but the overwhelming majority of teams cluster between 20 wins and 60 wins every season.

Successful-Let4361

29 | 6 hours ago

Yeah those percentages make no fucking sense. Better to say the number of games off they are. They missed wildly with the Raptors, who finished with 46 wins and in 5th after ESPN predicted only 33 and 12th. That’s a 13 game swing which somehow scores an 84%? As an educator I would never give a student an A- after fucking up that bad

itsdrewmiller | Timberwolves

13 | 5 hours ago

In what world is an 84% an A-?

NazReidRules | Timberwolves

6 | 5 hours ago

84% is A- these days? Solid B in my old man era

(B would also be too high for a grade here)

Ok_Pineapple_Num | Warriors

2 | 6 hours ago

Yeah. I think as NBA fans, we understand that anything more than a ~10 game differential is a major miss. I would intuitively consider a 13-game delta to be a “D” or “F” not an 84.0% haha. Better to just display the raw win difference.

I’d also mention that going into the season, we have a reasonably good idea of the talent levels on each team, and thus it isn’t all that hard to make a reasonably accurate guess for most teams. Vegas win predictions probably did as well or better than ESPN if we checked. So conceptually, deviations should be penalized even harder in light of that.

CarBallAlex | Celtics

29 | 6 hours ago

Yeah I agree. Using these metrics, 8 games off is 90%. 16 games is 80%. Neither are really that accurate.

siphillis | Spurs

63 | 8 hours ago

Missed a tiny bit with us

queezuswalks | Thunder

46 | 7 hours ago

True but I don’t think even Spurs fans saw that coming

CodeBlueLegacy | Spurs

27 | 7 hours ago

lol, we went into last season just hoping for playoff experience and fighting for the 6th seed.

GrizzlyP33

5 | 7 hours ago

And Celtics.

DragonBank | 76ers

31 | 7 hours ago

Is it? The most basic prediction model where you simply forecast the previous year results would have been off in the rankings by a total of 50. This model is off by 44. That entire difference is zeroed out if you make any changes at all for the Pacers.

Mobile-Entertainer60 | Thunder

26 | 7 hours ago

The West had as many teams (8) where the prediction was off by 8+ games as there were (8) where the prediction was within 3 games. The East had twice as many (6) teams where the prediction was off by 8+ games as where the prediction was within 3 games (3). That’s not my definition of accurate.

¹²⁄₃₀ teams deviated from their ESPN prediction by double digit wins.

NewNick30

13 | 6 hours ago

I think the percentages are just misleading to make the guesses look better than they really are. I don’t feel like the three below predictions are close to 80% in “real world” standings. Raw numbers might be better.

Dallas Mavericks	8	44-38	12	26-56	78.0%
San Antonio Spurs	9	44-38	2	62-20	78.0%
Memphis Grizzlies	10	42-40	13	25-57	79.3%

rang15 | Lakers

7 | 6 hours ago

In what way? The seedings are almost entirely wrong and the percentages there are a terrible measure of “accuracy” in this context. e.g. Somehow they’re 84% correct for predicting Detroit to have 47 wins and being the 5th seed?

btun88 | Thunder

4 | 8 hours ago

Yeah I was actually surprised about how close it was and that they had a couple of teams match the record and a few other teams just off by 1.

PsychoM | Raptors

20 | 8 hours ago

How is the grade calculated? They predicted the Hornets 18 wins lower than they actually got and gave themselves a 78% grade?

btun88 | Thunder

14 | 8 hours ago

I calculated how close in percentage were they from the prediction to the actual result.

Maybe a better word was accuracy instead of grade.

PsychoM | Raptors

24 | 8 hours ago

Oh so if they predicted 0 wins and a team won 82, that would be a score of 0%? Sure I guess so, it’s not a really good representation of the accuracy though when half the data set is above 90%.

nbaistheworst [OP]

20 | 8 hours ago

Thanks for posting those results.

Either_Imagination_9 | Knicks

12 | 7 hours ago

So that’s two straight year they’ve predicted the Rockets to be one of the best teams in the West

twoyrsaway

17 | 7 hours ago

I’m sure this was pre FVF injury tho

MyFartsAreStolen | Rockets

5 | 5 hours ago

They were only off by one win last year and aren’t deviating much from last year’s actuals for this year. Doesn’t seem crazy tbh.

soundisloud | Cavaliers

2 | 6 hours ago

Before last season many people here were saying Wemby was overrated. Proceeded to outperform expectations by almost 20 wins.

Optimal_Brain_2908 | Bulls

158 | 8 hours ago

The dregs of the West are worst than the dregs of the East. I think that’s the message here.

CdnfaS | Knicks

45 | 7 hours ago

After years of the opposite being true. Now the West is so top heavy. Meanwhile, I could see any of those bottom of the barrel east teams (except for the Nets, sorry but they should move back to New Jersey) making the play-in.

SteamingHotChocolate | Celtics

16 | 7 hours ago

milwaukee would also be surprising

rorank | Rockets

12 | 6 hours ago

Definitely surprising but not like “holy shit what?” Surprising. They don’t have a superstar but the amount of bodies they have that are 6-⁷⁄₁₀ basketball players in their roles is a strength in itself. Squeaking into the play-in is possible if unlikely.

grudgepacker | Bucks

8 | 5 hours ago

I think only way we make the play-in is if Rollins and/or KPJ end up going off in the regular season because there’s just no way we have a chance of getting there without at least one 20+ ppg scorer. That said, play-in or not, we should still do better this season than a lot of people are expecting.

rorank | Rockets

5 | 4 hours ago

When I made the comment I actually had a Rollins breakout year in mind!

twoyrsaway

7 | 7 hours ago

If the Bulls make the play in build a statue for Caleb Wilson

mrhashbrown | Clippers

3 | 4 hours ago

Yup. If anyone besides San Antonio or OKC wins the west, it would be a massive upset. Meanwhile I could easily see any of five Eastern Conference “contenders” reach the Finals and winning it all.

RunerMaxus | Spurs

117 | 8 hours ago

To be honest, I’m not sure the Spurs will take the one seed from OKC. They are an extremely deep team and well coached too.

Old_Supermarket_7575 | Thunder

65 | 8 hours ago

Less deep now, but we didn’t have our starting lineup healthy for more than like 4 games last year so idk what ESPN is on

OwnGuarantee6838 | Thunder

45 | 8 hours ago

less deep because of the dort trade but the minutes are going to some very talented players instead (cason, mccain, ajay)

maybe the new rookie could be good too with a bit more minutes now that we have less depth

OKC could get more wins than last season because our team health was poor, honestly though its still so goofy we got 64 wins like that. could’ve been a win record level team

sudzwithaz | Thunder

11 | 8 hours ago

We also haven’t seen what Sorber can contribute to the rotation

OwnGuarantee6838 | Thunder

4 | 8 hours ago

getting defended by chet/ihart and they head to the bench and are replaced by sorber/jwill

no rest for the opposing centers this year lmaooo

emoney_gotnomoney | Spurs

18 | 8 hours ago

To be fair, based on the past ~4 seasons, y’all being injured for much of the season is a better bet than y’all being healthy.

Mobile-Entertainer60 | Thunder

6 | 7 hours ago

It’s basically a bet on Wemby going off on an MVP campaign this year. It’s not worth spending energy on.

advancedmatt | Nuggets

4 | 6 hours ago

They’re predicting OKC to win 60 instead of 64. That’s not outrageous even if it turns out to be off. Any team could easily swing 4 or 5 games either way based on lucky or unlucky buzzer-beater shots and/or bad officiating calls that either help or hurt the team.

Short-Cardiologist-4 | Thunder

2 | 4 hours ago

Our demise has been greatly exaggerated.

If this is a bet against health, I get it. But at 100% OKC still has the best roster in the league and will probably be better without forcing 30 Dort minutes a night.

304rising

94 | 8 hours ago

I kinda feel like people are a little low on Washington. They’re going to be trying to win games with Trae & Ad with a decent supporting group. I feel like they should easily be at like 39.5 or around there.

twoyrsaway

15 | 7 hours ago

The East doesn’t have enough wins to go around. They are already giving a Kawhi and Scottie Raptors team only 45 wins. The Hali Siakam Zu Pacers even less.

Mister_Glass_ | Raptors

9 | 8 hours ago

I agree with you. They could be solid. Need a healthy AD which is just unlikely at this point.

RRJC10 | Raptors

4 | 5 hours ago

They’re way too low on Washington.

Granted they have a higher variance than anyone in the league. Their best case is 5th and worst case is like 13th. But they should be much better than Charlotte and Chicago.

DaJuggerHobbit | Hawks

3 | 5 hours ago

In a vacuum I agree with you. The issue is I don’t think they’re better than any of the teams listed ahead of them in the East. It’s a crazy deep conference this year.

Classic_File2716

49 | 8 hours ago

Why are the Lakers consistently underestimated and treated as a regular play in team when they’re really not ?

Capt_Wholesome | Lakers

26 | 8 hours ago

Lebron’s impact is way overblown; sure he still has a lot in the tank given his age but everyone forgets how well the Luka/Reeves lakers played when he was out. This years lakers are younger and deeper but because Bron is gone everyone thinks we’re done.

Capital_System8708

10 | 8 hours ago

I think it has more to do with the guys ahead of them than the lakers tbh. But I can see them swapping spots with Denver depending on how quickly they develop that chemistry. I’d be less concerned with seeding then health and chemistry come playoff time.

WakiLover | Lakers

7 | 7 hours ago

In years past the Lakers were always ranked with LeBron and ADs health a question mark while rival teams were ranked with best case scenario regarding health.

Blog bois always gooned to Kawhi “imagine if he’s healthy though” and PG while saying the wheels are falling off for LeBron and AD.

pocket_passss

4 | 4 hours ago

Austin Reaves denial syndrome

GiuseppeZangara

1 | 6 hours ago

I think because a lot of their success is going to depend on Luka’s availability which has been spotty.

WeCantBothBeMe

3 | 4 hours ago

They lost all the players who won them a playoff series and every team above them has more continuity so they will need to prove themselves first before people are willing to bet on them.

prodij18 | Lakers

3 | 3 hours ago

It’s a tradition around here to hope we’re only a play in team. Wrong every time but it makes them feel good.

Arkanslaughter | Timberwolves

43 | 8 hours ago

How are the rockets going to be this good???

xXEliteEater500Xx

26 | 7 hours ago

ESPN probably thinks a healthy Van Vleet will unlock the teams potential.

nahwhatever-whynot | Rockets

17 | 7 hours ago

Because we lost nobody big and are getting Fred and Adams back. Also hoping our young players improve.

Kdcjg | West

8 | 6 hours ago

The rockets are expected to win one less game than they actually won last year. It’s not really a function of them getting better.

Kdcjg | West

13 | 6 hours ago

Rockets won 52 games last year and expected to win 51 games this year. So basically they are expected to be the same year on year.

RaisinDetre | Suns

4 | 7 hours ago

well they got their PG back

WakiLover | Lakers

6 | 7 hours ago

His leg basically imploded no? He’ll be back but I’m not sure if he will be back back.

Burtssbees | Mavericks

3 | 6 hours ago

As a Mavs fan that had to watch the Mavs trot out Ryan nembhard as their true only play making guard last year, having a high IQ ball handler to initiate offense and help set up KD and sengun will be better than last year even if he walks out there with a pirate peg leg

AllOutRaptors | Raptors

31 | 8 hours ago

So the Raptors trade Ingram for Kawhi and are expected to win less games? Alright….

braddeus | Heat

14 | 7 hours ago

Yeah, there is absolutely no way they finish 8th with Kawhi

Infinite-Weekend9871 | Raptors

4 | 4 hours ago

why not

Kawhi is extremely injured and might even be suspended.

we lost Sandro. That’s a huge offensive piece off the bench.

We’re basically relying on Jakobe Walter to step it up. And we saw what happens when Shead has too much on his plate which is going to happen again

Poeltl will only get worse, back injuries linger and he’s getting older.

CMB is likely to hit the sophomore wall and he won’t magically get an offensive game in one offseason

Its entirely possible the team drops game with Kawhi out and other guys trying to grow and be consistent

MidnightToker101 | Raptors

8 | 7 hours ago

Raps are 12-3 on hitting the over last 15 years — merica’ just hates us but we chillin’

MirrorComputingRulez | Cavaliers

3 | 4 hours ago

So the Raptors trade Ingram for Kawhi

No they didn’t.

Troll_Enthusiast | Wizards

28 | 8 hours ago

The Wizards will have more than 31 wins, more than the Hornets and Bulls. I also think at least one Eastern conference team will get to 60 wins.

bosslevelinfinity

7 | 8 hours ago

Hornets and Wizards will be in the play-in and I wont be suprised if the Wizards clinch play off.

FlipMoBitch | Bucks

3 | 8 hours ago

Who in the top 10 do they kick out then?

ForsakenAd4825

21 | 8 hours ago

I think the Mavericks will surprise some people. There roster is much improved and Kyrie is playing. They don’t own their pick next year so no incentive to be bad. I think they will go .500.

emoney_gotnomoney | Spurs

11 | 8 hours ago

I’d be shocked if they didn’t hit .500 at least

ForsakenAd4825

9 | 8 hours ago

Appreciate the support. I am a Mavericks stan obviously and I see the Floor at 34 and ceiling at 48. Could see a record anywhere between there. Anything over .500 would be amazing after only winning 26 last year. I think they hit 500 but hard to see a world where they hit much above that. Hoping for the best lol. The NBA didn’t give us any favors in our first 10 games hopefully our confidence isn’t shot in the first month.

Skinnieguy | Pelicans

8 | 8 hours ago

I think they probably beat the 32 win expectations but hoping 34 year old Kyrie to be healthy all season and be .500 is a tall ask. I can definitely be wrong

ForsakenAd4825

4 | 8 hours ago

If they have even decent health .500 is very possible. If Gafford, Lively, Kyrie can all play over 55 games that would be very welcomed. That is notwithstanding all the roster improvements. Their depth and pieces are much better than last year. If they don’t hit .500 I would be a little disappointed.

Strange_Fault7965

8 | 7 hours ago

Don’t forget the progression of Flagg’s game as a sophomore.

Ranccor | Pacers

4 | 6 hours ago

No team has incentive to be bad anymore.

inightyDAB | Luka Dončić

18 | 8 hours ago

Every other team above us I can understand but I just can’t understand the rationale to have Houston above us when they were in blow up the team talks after losing to 75-year-old Lebron and friends and have made no significant moves at all. Unless you think VanVleet and Marcus Smart really move the needle I guess. It’s true that there are a lot of question marks about this Lakers team but I feel like everyone is underrating us just a bit too much.

OctogenerianCoder

7 | 7 hours ago

Also agree. I think people are underrating the Lakers atp

nbaistheworst [OP]

4 | 8 hours ago

I was surprised they had the Lakers 6th too - I think the Twolves and Nuggets both may struggle. If VanVleet and Smart are unable to move the needle it would be pretty surprising. If so, Ime could be gone.

inightyDAB | Luka Dončić

8 | 8 hours ago

Spurs and OKC I obviously understand. Timberwolves, yeah I can see that, they got continuity and exciting upside with LaMelo freeing Ant from having to do all of the playmaking. Nuggets, well I think they’re going downhill but they still have continuity going for them so I can see a better regular season record. I just cannot understand what possibly could have made them out Houston above us lol.

nahwhatever-whynot | Rockets

6 | 6 hours ago

Lakers are a brand new team with glaring holes on defense outside of their center. Rockets have tons of size and defense. We will win regular season games under Udoka like we have the last several years. Sadly not sure how much will translate to the post season unless one of our young guys take a leap

John_Winchester | Lakers

6 | 6 hours ago

Our defense (on paper) is better this year compared to last year. The only good defender we lost was Smart, and we picked up elite defenders in Kessler and Thybulle, good defenders in Grimes, and williams, and have Cameron Carr / Adou Thiero who are, on paper, extremely interesting defensive prospects. Although it’s too early to say whether they’ll be good this year against NBA level talent.

So I don’t get this “glaring hole on defense” stuff. We’re not the thunder or anything, but at a bare minimum we have more capable defenders on the team this year compared to last year.

Lucky13200 | Celtics

17 | 8 hours ago

The east to me is a lot less predictable than the west. I could see a team like Detriot really struggling with Duren unhappy losing Harris and just taking a step back or they could take a step forward. Celtics, Pacers are mystery boxes hugely relying on a player coming back from Achilles injuries. 76ers I have zero clue how they will really do. The w

DCWizFan

6 | 7 hours ago

The east is insane this year. 12-13 teams think of themselves as legit playin teams or better. I don’t think people appreciate just how many teams were tanking last year. As a result last year’s records tells you even less than usual about this year’s likely team wins. As a Wiz fan of course I think people are sleeping on our team and just how different we’re gonna be. We got three new starters: Trae, AD, and AJ FRIGGIN DYBANTSA. And we’re trying to win. Every team is. This year gonna be fun!

thisismypornaccn | Lakers

20 | 7 hours ago

we just gonna get the three seed again don’t mind us

ElkNo8185

13 | 6 hours ago

I understand the Jokic circle jerk at ESPN and the Ringer but the Nuggets have basically had an F off season and somehow they’re the 3 seed. Minnesota lost 3 guys that played 95%+ of games last year and only brought in LaMelo Ball. Will have to change the way they play completely. Tied for 3. Lakers got younger, more athletic, better shooting, will have a defense better than last year but somehow are 8 games worse because LeBron is gone? (He missed many games and shot 31% from 3 btw)

Where is the consistency?

kanokari | Timberwolves

6 | 6 hours ago

Losing Julius is a net positive. Lamelo, if healthy, is far better than Naz Reid.

Cassandrae_Gemini | Slovenia

15 | 5 hours ago

Insane Luka disrespect

mr_shmits | Raptors

15 | 8 hours ago

so basically the usual ESPN BS clickbait

Top-boy-og

11 | 8 hours ago

Every team that makes the finals is usually crippled the following season. Knicks and Spurs will be worse than last year

marshalgivens | Wizards

14 | 8 hours ago

I don’t think that’s true. Looking at the last two seasons’ finals teams, OKC and Celtics basically had no drop off. Pacers did but they had a catastrophic injury. Really it’s only the Mavs who really sucked after their finals.

Top-boy-og

14 | 8 hours ago

OKC was one of the most injured team last year, but it didn’t matter because of Mr consistent. Celtics didn’t have a drop off in reg season but it all came crashing down hard against the Knicks

bhris_cratt321 | Knicks

11 | 8 hours ago

I hope not but the evidence speaks for itself. It’s been literally every finals team since 2019

fps129 | Knicks

7 | 7 hours ago

Losing Mitch will guarantee that we get a little worse. The non-KAT minutes will be quite an adventure lol

Thehelloman0 | Spurs

4 | 8 hours ago

Why would the Spurs be worse? They are a young team that is bringing back everyone and added one of the best players from the east 1 seed

Capital_System8708

2 | 8 hours ago

I’m thinking under for my Spurs. 15 of last 20 games are a gauntlet.

UntilDoncic | Lakers

9 | 8 hours ago

They know that there are only 4 teams in the play-in right?

ndm1535

9 | 7 hours ago

I have an incredibly hard time believing a few things here:

Zero teams in the East over 53 wins seems crazy, someone will go on a heater.
Boston above Miami and Indiana, and Indiana predicted as a 44 win team also feels crazy to me. Miami will be great defensively and do genuinely have a ton of shooting outside the recent Klay Thompson addition.
Is Houston really a 50 win team in the west?

And lastly, is this the most even west vs east has been in a long long time?

FinancialRabbit388 | Lakers

10 | 5 hours ago

The Lakers won 53 games with LeBron/Reaves/Luka missing 70 games, got better, and they at 45 wins 6 seed. That’s wild. They gonna be competing for a top 2 seed.

nbaistheworst [OP]

3 | 4 hours ago

Well Lebron, Smart, and Rui will be missing 82, that’s a lot of starter minutes to replace

OneXDC4ever | Lakers

6 | 3 hours ago

Replaced them with Kessler, Grimes, Mamu, Sexton, Thybulle, and Williams. LeBron is a big loss, but Ayton to Kessler is a massive upgrade, and Mamu is a better player than Rui. Smart has a long list of injury concerns and grimes has more offensive upside

itsyaboikuzma | Lakers

3 | 41 minutes ago

The Lakers were predicted by ESPN to win 42.7 wins in the 24-25 season where they won 50 games, 47.6 wins in the 25-26 season where they won 53 games. Maybe they’ll finally catch up in 2030.

augustus624

7 | 8 hours ago

Good rankings overall but I feel like a lot of folks are underrating the Raptors

Zeeron1 | Thunder

7 | 8 hours ago

I’d have Minnesota over Denver and Houston pretty easily tbh

AuroraPo | Lakers

6 | 7 hours ago

I don’t know who is paying these “writers” to keep the Denver dream alive, but fans are gonna be sorely disappointed.

HesiPullup | Suns

5 | 5 hours ago

They won more games than 51 last year and Jokic is arguably the best player in basketball. He’s carried worse teams, it’s not that crazy.

ShowdownValue

3 | 3 hours ago

The one second the writers aren’t loving all over LA, now they are terrible.

BeloAve | Lakers

9 | 7 hours ago

I guarantee you neither Miami nor lakers will be a play in group team

WetAndWildOperator

6 | 8 hours ago

Raptors and Pacers are gonna be 50+ win teams

blindedbythelightyo | Nets

6 | 8 hours ago

Keep sleeping on the nets 🙌🔥

Vert56 | Nets

6 | 5 hours ago

They underestimating the GOAT Jordi Fernandez

axnjxn00 | Magic

5 | 7 hours ago

Didn’t it have the magic and warriors as playing for the championship last year?

nbaistheworst [OP]

3 | 6 hours ago

No.

TheOxRox | Timberwolves

4 | 8 hours ago

Jazz will be better than the Warriors. Wolves will be better then the Nuggs

s3xydud3 | Australia

2 | 8 hours ago

This is a hot take I can get behind!

AggravatingCan2352

6 | 8 hours ago

How Atlanta and Miami are ahead of the Raptors and Pacers makes no sense.

gwapwes | NBA

4 | 7 hours ago

think their underrating raptors. especially if that kawhi trade go through can see them 4-5

TJMcConnellFanClub | 76ers

4 | 6 hours ago

Slamming the Wiz and Grizz overs

Both_River416

4 | 4 hours ago

I’d be shocked if the Rockets won more games than the Sixers.

Mr_Smooth55

2 | 8 hours ago

espn rage-baiting formula:

have Lakers below a bunch of teams they were ahead of the previous season

overrate Celtics team that lost their Finals MVP to a division rival that led to LeBron James signing

place fully healthy Pacers team that went to the Finals 2 seasons ago at 9th

keep Nuggets in the top 3 even if they lost a young promising prospect in Peyton Watson, and have a shitty bench

Torgo73 | Celtics

8 | 8 hours ago

This projects the Celtics to win eight fewer games than last season, and your reaction is to say that this overrates them?

Out: Brown, Vucevic

In: Tatum, Mitchell Robinson, Paul George, the Ghost of Mike Conley

Is their playoff ceiling potentially lower with just one of the Jays? Sure. But between internal development of their young guys, boosts from Robinson and George, and going from Brown to Tatum, the only reason to think they’ll win fewer regular season games is that the East is better. Eight games better? I dunno. Obviously I’m biased, but I don’t really see the case for them being a worse regular season team.

SoulReaper12 | Celtics

7 | 7 hours ago

How is the Celtics overrated? I definitely think 48-54 wins is they floor. I feel some yall think Brown hard carried the Celtics last year which isn’t true.

ProfessionalWeek2256 | Hawks

3 | 8 hours ago

I’d gladly take a 47 win season from the Hawks this year even though that would basically mean they are the same team as last year. The top 5 of the east are going to be brutal

Substantial-Fan-5985

2 | 8 hours ago

There’s no way they put Nuggets third with 51 wins…..

AleroRatking | Vancouver Grizzlies

5 | 8 hours ago

The East is incredibly deep and outside the Knicks I don’t think anyone is truly elite. They are going to eat each other alive

Whereas the west has some great teams and then a bunch of teams I don’t think are contenders

DrSockdolager | Raptors

3 | 7 hours ago

Every year we get some prediction whiplash and I’m always terrible at guessing, but I would t be surprised if Indiana and Washington were over-performing these predictions as far as East teams go.

Then again I wouldn’t be surprised if Washington won 18 games and AD played 14 of them, so maybe surprise isn’t a useful metric…

Direct-Departure1662

3 | 7 hours ago

Really sleeping on Toronto in my opinion.

Fluffy-Complex-5872

2 | 6 hours ago

Idk how the lakers get 3rd seed two years in a row and now they’re worse lmao. Lakers 2 seed this year.

rabidantidentyte | Nets

5 | 6 hours ago

I know we’re bad, but we’re significantly better than last year and we just got 20 wins trying to lose. We don’t have our own pick this year. 18 is crazy.

Dax_Webster | Pacers

3 | 6 hours ago

Keep sleeping…

Popcorn10 | Pacers

3 | 3 hours ago

Yeah. Are we insane? Does anyone outside of pacer fans realize this team is not 1 guy coming off an injury but the entire team injured last season…. Haliburton looked bad for 3 months in 24-25 and we won 50 games…. And the non Haliburton guys are just better than the regular season 24-25 versions of themselves. I guess we’re all huffing hopium or something. The Knicks (maybe Philly / Miami gotta see them play first) are the only team I’d favor over us in a playoff series.

shepaz_93 | Bulls

3 | 5 hours ago

The Lakers will be way better than everyone seems ti think.

Aggressive-Law-9305

5 | 5 hours ago

Lakers at 6? Idk about that. Idk why you would have Houston over them. Even teams like Denver and Minnesota have questions just like the lakers. Denver probably have more than LAL and Minny . Would put both lakers and t wolves a head of rockets and nuggets

Fuckthebeard

3 | 4 hours ago

Denver and Houston 6 games above the lakers, nope.

asionm | Raptors

3 | 3 hours ago

Predicting the Raptors at 8 seed after they were 5th last year and got Kawhi is crazy

Old_Supermarket_7575 | Thunder

2 | 8 hours ago

They’re either assuming OKC has more massive injuries to it’s big 3 or they think Dort Wiggins and Joe are worth 8 wins

RspectMyAuthoritah | Lakers

4 | 8 hours ago

It’s only 4 wins less than last year (not 8) and losing 3 rotation players causing a 4 win drop is pretty reasonable. Every team is going to deal with injuries and bench depth matters. Chet has missed 50+ twice in 4 seasons and JDub just missed 49 games last season while missing 10+ games the 2 prior seasons. Don’t know why you think they’ll both be perfectly healthy.

pacifismisevil | Grizzlies

3 | 7 hours ago

There’s no tanking anymore, a lot of the free win teams got better (Jazz, Mavs, Wizards), a lot of the middling teams also got better (76ers, Heat, Blazers, Pacers) and it’s likely no team makes it to 60 wins (historically that happens in 40% of seasons).

Perceval_009 | Hornets

3 | 8 hours ago

Am I tripping or is Miami way too high? I can’t see them doing better than Toronto and Indiana, they have almost no depth.

BajanQQ | Heat

9 | 8 hours ago

yeah, you are tripping. They are missing a backup center, and playmaking (although I think people underestimate Davion). It’s a decent team, def not worse than Toronto or Indiana. obviously I am a bit biased

Muted_Dog7317 | Heat

5 | 8 hours ago

The east will be a fight so I could see a bunch of teams grouped together, how it will shake out is unclear.

As for the depth, THJ and Bobby Portis have both had long careers as high minute bench players and have been 6th man finalist and Pelle Larson was one of our better 2 way players last year. Spo likes to go with 4 off the bench so if Jovic has a bounce back year or someone else breaks out the depth shouldn’t be much of an issue.

ImAShaaaark | Supersonics

3 | 8 hours ago

They’ve got two elite defensive bigs, one of which is outstanding offensively as well, and they have some of the deepest crews of 3p shooting in the league. On paper they look like they should be good, but we have no idea how the pacers are gonna look because it depends so much on how Hali looks. And as much as I love Scottie IDK how anyone could have more confidence in him and BI over Giannis, Bam and Wiggins.

Mister_Glass_ | Raptors

3 | 8 hours ago

It really depends if the Raptors are Kawhi and Scottie instead of BI.

Normal_Marketing853

3 | 7 hours ago

this always happens whenever a superstar moves around. I remember how everyone thought the Suns were a 70-win team or whatever when Durant was traded there

alfi_k | Mavericks

2 | 8 hours ago

They are about as pessimistic about our win total as I am

Revolutionary-Let778

2 | 8 hours ago

Yeah I can see most of the eastern conference heavy hitter teams sitting around 50 wins this seasons

Barracuda374

2 | 7 hours ago

They are too low on the heat, raptors, magic. Those are possibly the three best defenses in the conference next season

I would move down the pistons, cavs, hawks

Moodie25 | Jazz

2 | 7 hours ago

So the Jazz will win 12 more games when actually trying to win and not sitting players out the entire season? That just doesn’t make sense to me.

jonavision

2 | 7 hours ago

Some big problems here. This projection predicts 1,255 total wins and only 1,205 losses. Where do the 50 extra wins come from?!? The East projects 641 total wins (+52 over 0.500) and the West is (-2 under a 0.500 average). Can the East really net 52 wins over the West? Look for the East numbers to be 5 - 15 wins less than predicted, greater disparity in the play-in and bottom five groups.

BSApologist | Timberwolves

2 | 7 hours ago

This makes me confident that the Wolves are gonna be a top 3 seed. Not sure what the Rockets have to be a 50 win team.

MindbenderGam1ng | Bucks

2 | 7 hours ago

First list ive seen where the bucks arent dead last.. Ill take it ig

VeniceRapture | Spurs

2 | 6 hours ago

B2b 60-win seasons is not easy to do

Syrup_SSBM

2 | 6 hours ago

The east will have at least one 60 win team, I can’t see why the pistons cant do it again. They really only bombed the playoffs because Jalen Duren played like ass. If he can still play well in the regular season again I’m sure they’re going to play well in the regular season.

loplopplop | Nuggets

2 | 6 hours ago

Lol we don’t belong in that group.

HeadFun4237

2 | 6 hours ago

How is 10 44 win teams in the east unbelievable. 10th seed won 43 games last year. and the east is considerably stronger now.

nbaistheworst [OP]

3 | 5 hours ago

Because last year there were a bunch of tanking teams that will be trying to win this season. I’m guessing the #10 in the east will win below 40.

ericaepic | Pistons

2 | 6 hours ago

Lol

BananaRepublic_BR | Spurs

2 | 4 hours ago

Considering how many teams were actively tanking last seasok, I find it hard to believe anyone will get 60+ wins.

Alex_O7

2 | 4 hours ago

I think the East may not have a 60W team because there are 5 good ones that will win between 50 and 57, much like it happened in the West couple years ago. Also we will see how new rules for tanking will impact lower seeded teams, I guess it will be harder for everyone to win a tons, considering there were more bad teams in the East they are all now incentivized to win.

Today’s ESPN annual season W-L predictions for all 30 teams has the Spurs #1, and the 1-5 of the West better than the East. And 10 east team with at least 44 wins seems unlikely. Discuss!