I don’t know that it’s all that clear cut that Tatum taking middies is a good idea: it would be fine if he were actually as good as JB from there.

It’s easy enough to look up the stats: JB has been better from mid-range than Tatum for the entirety of their careers: (by feet from the hoops JB -> Tatum from basketball-reference)

3-10: 44.7% -> 41.2%
10-16: 46.8% -> 38.3%
16-3PT Line: 43.5% -> 39.6%

… and they were dead-even near the basket: 70.5% vs. 71%. JB being 70-40-40-40 for his career places him in an elite class like Durant and Kawhi. Tatum is not quite there.

Tatum was better from 3 though — but we’re talking 36.8% for Tatum and 35.8% from JB for their careers.

That’s one 3-pt shot per 100 taken “better”: basically 3-pts. The profile does matter, though: JB’s 3-pt percentage went down in later years because he was shooting more from the wings and center area extended than he was from near or at the corners, which he did earlier in his career — whereas Tatum has been more consistent in making his threes so we’re probably talking about a difference closer to 2 shots per 100 taken.

Whatever it is, the Celtics will have to change the way they play on offense. Middies aside, JB was the Celtics’ drives leader the last 4 seasons and interestingly, in two of those, Payton and Malcolm Brogdon (the 6MoTY version of whom Payton has basically morphed into) were second behind JB.

So the Celtics don’t really have a player that can replace JB’s drives and putting it on Tatum to make up the loss when he’s still recovering and may now be load-managed more aggressively is not ideal. PG isn’t going to suddenly get there 12 to 15 times a game when he’s down to the 5 to 6 per game range and may miss 25-40 games — and those drives of his were more of close-outs than aggressive drives like JB’s anyway.

A missed three generates offensive rebounds…Jaylen takes a bunch of mid range which is even more bad.

I would strongly disagree here.

You also have to remember the physics at play. The ball comes down with the same acceleration that caused it to go up.

In terms of how that affects rebounding, this means longer shots turn into longer rebounds. You have to throw the ball up with more force to make a 3, which means it also comes down and hits the rim with more force.

A missed layup will land somewhere in the restricted zone. A missed mid-range shot will land somewhere in the paint. A missed 3 can land further out.

And those further out rebounding opportunities are tough because your bigs are going to be fighting for position in the paint, which means the ball will fly right over the heads of both our bigs and theirs. This means it’s the guards and wings who are in position for the rebound.

That’s a problem because guard/wing defensive rebounds are more dangerous than big defensive rebounds. The guards and wings are far better at handling the ball and making plays, which means they can grab the ball and kickstart a fastbreak, turning that defensive rebound into an offensive opportunity.

For example, a lot of people used to criticise Russell Westbrook in 2017 for hoarding Steven Adams’ rebounds, but that was a decision by OKC so they could get out in transition quicker. Westbrook was more dangerous in the fast break than Adams. You didn’t want Adams getting the rebound and giving the ball to Westbrook, they were cutting out the middle man and wanted Westbrook to get the rebound and start sprinting straight away.

The 2021-22 Celtics are another really good example of this. We had an insane defensive lineup, but our spacing to start the season was bad, and that forced us into taking a lot of bad 3s. It really undermined our defence because opponents were grabbing the long rebounds and getting easy transition buckets, allowing them to score before our elite defence could get set up. Our defence didn’t really start to shine until we figured out our offensive spacing issues.

The type of shot you take and the way you set up before the shot is really important.

There’s actually a really great Tatum game to watch from the title year that shows off quite a bit of this. People made fun of him for missing 12 shots (he was ⁷⁄₁₉ or 36.8%), but if you go back and watch those misses, we got a hand on almost all of them. A really good example of “good misses” that can actually help the team in a big way.

The main reason for this is because of the types of shots he’s missing.

In one possession he forces a mismatch against a big man out on the perimeter. This means our big man also has a mismatch in the paint, giving him a better chance at the rebound.

In some of those possessions he’s getting inside and waiting for either his teammate to secure position or for a help defender to lock onto him. Even if it means he’s taking a more difficult shot, we’re better positioned for that secondary opportunity.

In others he’s creating chaos, like with the transition 3. No one is in position during transition attempts and no one is ready to box out. Rebounding normally favours the defence heavily, but rebounds when everyone is still in transition are basically 50-50s.

1. Our offense is 12 points better per 100 when Jaylen was off the floor the last three playoffs. 127.2. Would be the best regular season offense ever by a lot. We straight up do not need his offense in the playoffs. Mazzulla ball works.
   
2. It is not just that Jaylen does not shoot threes well and PG is a historically great shooter for a wing. Jaylen also does not shoot many threes nor generates them. He massively suppresses our three point rate. It’s around 46 percent when he’s on and like 54% when he’s off. It’s probably going to be around 57-60% this season.
   
3. Yes, Payton will be our #2. I don’t know why people think he won’t start. He was just much better in the non Jaylen minutes, and they weren’t going to bench the guy they pay $60m. Jaylen is gone, Payton will start. Payton was also absurd in the Jayson on minutes last year. 70.8% TS% on 23 points per 75 possessions on only 20% usage rate.

This is sick man. Been playing around with it for a while. Awesome job so far

Seems mildly interesting. Slightly more accurate and complete version of what Fanspo does.

As to feedback, there’s a bug where changing someone into the starting role, with not enough minutes according to the site, it seems to lock up, even if you change their minutes to satisfy this weird “rule”. I swapped Scheierman for Hauser in the starting line up, and after that it just would not let me do anything to continue.

My other point of feedback is that fairly sure this is built with AI, and that’s a non-starter for me to actually using it. And using AI to build some slop site that will break down after a quick cash grab at some point is bad enough, but not mentioning anything about who and why and how the site is built is a second no-no.

Henderson is making $13.5M. You could technically do a Hauser for Henderson trade, but this puts us over the luxury tax. You’d have to add another player, which puts us at 13 rostered players and we would need to sign someone else. Idk about you, but I don’t think Hauser and another young player for Henderson is a good trade both for the on court production and the financial situation.

The only other option would be Mitchell Robinson for Henderson (which you can’t even do until Oct 6). Kinda silly to trade a guy we acquired to address our biggest need just to move him after training camp.

Based on these 2 scenarios not making sense, I don’t even think Brad is calling about Scoot.