[OC] Steph Curry shoots 42.3% from three after Panthers wins and 35.2% after Panthers losses

In Steph’s first NBA game after a Panthers win, he shoots 42.3% from three.

After a Panthers loss?

35.2%.

That’s a 7.1 percentage-point difference, and it’s statistically significant (p = .013).

The Warriors also win 76.8% of Steph’s games after Panthers wins compared with 56.4% after Panthers losses.

Source for Steph’s panther fandom: https://www.nba.com/news/the-athletic-how-the-currys-carolina-panthers-fandom-became-a-family-affair

Background

Steph Curry isn’t just a casual Panthers fan.

He grew up in Charlotte, attended Panthers games during their inaugural 1995 season, and has described himself as a lifelong fan. In 2025, Curry said he tries not to miss Panthers games.

During last season, Curry interrupted his pregame workout to watch a Panthers game against San Francisco. Warriors staff have reportedly noticed how closely he follows Carolina when Panthers and Warriors games happen on the same day. The same report described Curry looking visibly disappointed before a Warriors game following a Panthers loss.

Methodology

I collected Curry’s regular-season game logs from his rookie season in 2009-10 through 2025-26 and matched them against Carolina Panthers regular-season results from the corresponding NFL seasons.

For every Panthers regular-season game, I found Steph’s first NBA regular-season game afterward, provided:

Curry played within the next seven days
the NBA game occurred on a later calendar date
the Panthers game did not end in a tie

I excluded same-day games because without incorporating exact NFL and NBA finishing times, I couldn’t guarantee Steph knew the Panthers result before playing.

This produced:

69 Curry games after Panthers wins
78 Curry games after Panthers losses

Each Panthers game appears only once in this analysis.

Results

STAT	AFTER PANTHERS WIN	AFTER PANTHERS LOSS	CHANGE	P-VALUE
Points	23.87	22.74	+5.0%	.488
3PM	3.86	3.28	+17.5%	.124
3PA	8.80	9.26	-5.0%	.456
3P%	42.3%	35.2%	+7.1 pts	.013
FG%	47.5%	41.7%	+5.8 pts	.012
Assists	6.52	6.14	+6.2%	.422
Rebounds	4.74	4.86	-2.5%	.756
Steals	1.78	1.55	+14.9%	.284
Turnovers	2.93	3.05	-4.1%	.650
Minutes	33.38	33.64	-0.8%	.764
Warriors Win %	76.8%	56.4%	+20.4 pts	.014

The Warriors are also MUCH more likely to win on top of Steph Shooting better.

When Steph’s previous Panthers game was a victory, Golden State won:

53 of 69 games: 76.8%

Following Panthers losses:

44 of 78 games: 56.4%

That’s a 20.4 percentage-point gap.

Fisher’s exact test gives p = .014.

Furthermore, take 2015:

The Panthers went 15-1 in 2015.

The Warriors went 73-9 in 2015-16.

Steph won unanimous MVP. What are the chances that both teams had their best regular season in the same year?

So, If you are a Warriors fan, you better pray Bryce Young has a good season this year…

CrazyEyedGase | Knicks

268 | 3 hours ago

The fate of the Warriors season until January rests in the hands of Bryce Young

Charlie_Wax | Warriors

71 | 3 hours ago

Hell Nawl can’t do dis

BetweenTheBuzzAndMe | Charlotte Bobcats

1 | 24 minutes ago

Enjoy your 25-57 season lmao

Kyro_Official_ | Raptors

13 | 3 hours ago

So theyre doomed then

Rillaboom2701 | Hornets

5 | an hour ago

BetweenTheBuzzAndMe | Charlotte Bobcats

1 | 26 minutes ago

Yeah pretty much. This team is going like 4-13

Phil_Ivey | Warriors

6 | an hour ago

Dear god

DysonDPOY

141 | 3 hours ago

We truly are in the off season.

EmperorUmi | Lakers

25 | 3 hours ago

Good. Now I can fully focus on NBA 2K.

Oh, what’s this? I got Devin Booker in my rewards pack. Fuck everything!!!

NecessaryForward6820 | Cavaliers

20 | 3 hours ago

I don’t know. I miss when these posts were organically made instead of prompted in by AI. This one is super shameless too.

Chief_White_Halfoat | Raptors

95 | 3 hours ago

This is both simultaneously pure off season content and also a ton of games as a sample size and huge difference.

Also please delete this information. I don’t gamble but this is tempting.

StrategyTop7612 [OP] | Clippers

35 | 3 hours ago

Past performance doesn’t predict future results…

stephzh | 76ers

16 | 3 hours ago

Already built into the odds when this post was made

MuchAbouAboutNothing | Thunder

32 | 3 hours ago

This is sensational work OP, true off-season spirit.

josefjohann | OKC

4 | 2 hours ago

Out first true AI content offseason

sportznut1000

13 | 3 hours ago

OP giving Pablo Torre a run for his money with this kind of content

Loud-Fig-1446 | Cavaliers

1 | 3 hours ago

“Today we’re going to find out what this sound means: Panthers first down growl”

DyslexicWalkIntoABra

13 | 3 hours ago

I went through this looking for some flaw in the methodology that I could call out but genuinely this is pretty robust. The only factor maybe being 7 days is a big window.

Soft-Run-3577

1 | 32 minutes ago

Then you need to be better at methodology otherwise you better be screaming about how ice cream sales result in shark attacks.

DyslexicWalkIntoABra

1 | 32 minutes ago

Alright, how would you do it?

Soft-Run-3577

1 | 27 minutes ago

I would compare the delta within the year rather than across his career at a minimum. For example, if the Panthers are good in 2015-16 and then fall off after like 2022, that will pop when in reality it’s just because their rise and fall syncs. It might as well be correlation masquerading as causality right now (not that I would ever believe its actually causal even with better methodology). There’s also stuff like opponent quality that you aren’t going to adjust for too but in short with the number of whacky parameters you can pick, you can always p hack to something “significant”.

Also, just look closer, what this is really measuring for a lot of it is that Curry chucked a lot of 3s in these games. That lowers his 3p%, fg%, and possibly win% as well. 3pm and 3p% are basically the same parameter so it’s pretty obvious p hacking.

StrategyTop7612 [OP] | Clippers

1 | 10 minutes ago

I did compare the delta.

After controlling for season, Panthers wins were still associated with:

Stat	SEASON-ADJUSTED EFFECT	P-VALUE
3PM	+0.87 threes	.026
3P%	+8.1 percentage points	.012
FG%	+5.9 percentage points	.017
Warriors Win %	+16.5 percentage points	.049

PaidUSA | Hornets

1 | an hour ago

I think it’s valid tho since the nfl is week by week so you either win or lose that weeks game.

DyslexicWalkIntoABra

2 | an hour ago

I’m more saying that 7 days is a long time for the fallout of the loss to no longer affect Curry

PaidUSA | Hornets

1 | an hour ago

And I’m saying ur team is down or up till they play their next game. Traditionally with the panthers it’s also repetitive L’s or back and forth wins losses or streaks of wins. So a lot of losses will be compounding etc. GSW has been mediocre to bad since this prolonged slump since like 2018 gsw is not that much above .500.

SnooMacaroons1942

11 | 3 hours ago

Draymond, so interesting question, so last year you visit us, game 3, there was no flood, you win, game 4, there was flood, you lose, and this year you visit us, game 3, there’s a flood, you win, game 4, there’s no flood, uhh no, game 3 there’s a flood you lose, game 4 there’s no flood you win

Level_East94

7 | 3 hours ago

Tylenol is a hell of a drug

Waikuku3

9 | 3 hours ago

Two months till tip-off guys hang on

bbstats

7 | 3 hours ago

40% chance of hitting 0.05 p-value by luck alone on these tests

KetoPeto | Magic Tankwagon

4 | 3 hours ago

Chase Center should start offering no show endorsement deals to NFL free agents to go to the Panthers.

BizzaroMatthews | Hornets

2 | 3 hours ago

Steph loves to keep pounding, thats for sure

xGvPx

2 | 3 hours ago

Interesting I didn’t know you can format data like that…may delete this test data

Header 1	Header 2
Row 1	Data 1
Row 2	Data 2

Header 1	Header 2
Row 1	Data 1
Row 2	Data 2

Well, I might use that later, thanks, OP 😁

Haasaagi | Hornets

2 | 40 minutes ago

As OP already pointed out, peak panthers coincide peak warriors -> panthers ass last few years and warriors on the decline.

The biggest next thing to check is to control for season of season variation and see if the relationship still exist

StrategyTop7612 [OP] | Clippers

2 | 37 minutes ago

I did, I didn’t include it because I figured nobody would care enough:

After controlling for season, Panthers wins were still associated with:

Stat	SEASON-ADJUSTED EFFECT	P-VALUE
3PM	+0.87 threes	.026
3P%	+8.1 percentage points	.012
FG%	+5.9 percentage points	.017
Warriors Win %	+16.5 percentage points	.049

CheeseburgerTornado | Wizards

1 | 3 hours ago

in 2024, the women’s UNI panthers beat the women’s Pitt panthers 90-74. the following game (12/3/2024), curry shot ⁸⁄₂₁ (38%) including ³⁄₁₀ (30%) from three in a loss to the suns, both below the team average that game

coincidentally, the whole month of november 2024, the NHL ran a behind the scenes look at none other than the florida panthers. the warriors posted a season-high 5 game losing streak at the end of that month

is steph curry afraid of panthers?

LosAngeLukaGOATCIC | Cote D'Ivoire

1 | 3 hours ago

Strip clubs for Harden and Panthers for Curry.

Got it.

hereforthefeast | Warriors

1 | 3 hours ago

7 day window is too long. What do the results look like if it’s either just 1, 2, or 3 days?

PaidUSA | Hornets

0 | an hour ago

NFL teams either win or lose their game each week. Until the next game happens it’s a losing week and u don’t know if the team will ever win again. Which is a real problem with the Panthers.

hereforthefeast | Warriors

1 | 9 minutes ago

It’s not just about the NFL schedule it just means that there are tons of other things that can happen between those 7 days that you can’t draw any meaningful correlation to the outcome of a Panthers games from a week ago.

LongjumpingSport1007

1 | 2 hours ago

lmao this is actually wild stats what if the panthers win predicted curry’s three-point shooting better than his free throw percentage

Kuhzoom

1 | an hour ago

I thought p value had yo be under .05

ProfessorSerious7840

1 | 13 minutes ago

r/theydidthemath

ILikeWhyteGirlz

0 | an hour ago

Can you do this but compare Israel strikes