He’s not overrated he’s just the only contract we can talk about right now.

What makes it interesting for me is that his best stretch was without Jokic, so his production scaling was not a result of playing with an uber talented playmaker and offensive player, it came from him genuinely improving his game.

The defense piece is really good as well, a player with those physical specs, a good 3pt shot and good cutting with some creation is very hard to find.

25m might be a bit steep, but he’s for sure worth more than what Denver is offering him right now.

Recent players to get around 22-28 million AAV
- Coby White
- Ayo Dosunmu
- Christian Braun
- Jabari Smith Jr
- Josh Giddey
- Isiah Hartenstein
- Devin Vassel
- Jaden Mcdaniels
- Jonathon Kuminga

Among those guys he’d probably land somewhere in the middle same tier as most of those guys. There’s potential for it to be an overpay but a contract around 25 million makes sense.

If he was being treated like a guaranteed star teams would be falling over themselves to pay him \(35m+. Instead he’s being treated as exactly what he is: a decent young role player with the possibility of star upside, which is rightfully worth around \)20m.

$25m a year isn’t anywhere near star money and it’s not really that far off the going rate for a “standard, replaceable rotation wing”

25 million is not star money at all that 3rd or 4th best starter money

I think “overrated” is a little strong, but the contract argument is fair. His 14.6 PPG definitely hides how much that 15-game stretch without Jokic boosted his season. He averaged 22.1 during that run, but only 11.7 with Jokic, and outside that stretch he was basically at 12 PPG.
He still struggles creating in the half court and a lot of his offense comes from transition, cutting and attacking advantages other people create. That’s why paying him \(25M+ like he’s already a dependable secondary creator feels premature. I wouldn’t call him replaceable though. Young 6’8 wings who can defend, block shots and potentially shoot 38–40% don’t grow on trees. He’s a good starter-level player with upside, just not a guaranteed star. Somewhere around \)20–22M feels way more realistic than either Denver’s $14M offer or Watson asking for more than Braun.

The point of Peyton Watson isn’t that he’s a key offensive player, it’s that you need strong athletic guys to compete with OKC and San Antonio.

That being said, something rubs me the wrong way about the way he’s saying “You gotta pay me more than Braun.” I’m not remotely convinced he’s a better player than Braun, although they have such drastically different skillsets that it’s hard to make a direct comparison. (Although, of those skill sets, it’s Braun’s which tends to get paid more).

Plus this seems to be the summer when teams realized “Oh, shit, we really do have to deal with this second-apron thing.”

I mean his skillset is absolutely vital to any team that hopes to compete and he has a lot of upside at his age. Idk if I’d say he’s overrated as much as he needs to prove he can sustain his production under higher usage

Most of his numbers reflect a good true 3&D (a lot of people with that label aren’t good defenders). True 3&Ds get around \(20M or more. And his good month showed a level of shot creation most 3&Ds don't have. The biggest question is just his health. But asking for more than \)18M isn’t crazy at all. 3&Ds get that much.

 4 year 100M seems fair 

Preach. He has ridiculous potential but a 15-game track record isn’t enough to warrant the Nuggs killing the rest of Jokic’s career. He also ducked the playoffs while CB played through a crazy injury. Too much time with MPJ, Klutch, and all these other yahoos. Yes, I’m a homer but people are sleeping way too hard on the Nuggs, CBA be damned

25 mill is 15 percent of the cap which is more then reasonable for a player of Watsons calibre. Y’all gotta start looking at percentage of the cap instead of just seeing the big numbers and assuming it’s an overpay

We don’t have any real information that he’s being overvalued by teams. He doesn’t have any offers. Everything so far is probably coming from his agent.

Guards/Wings who have signed contracts with yearly average between 22 million and 26 million in the last 3 seasons:

2026:

• Dyson Daniels 25M
• Colby White 24M
• Dosumu 22M
• Norm Powell 22M

2025:

• FVF 25M
• Giddey 25M
• Kuminga 23M

2024

• Tobias Harris 26M
• Miles Bridges 25M
• Derozan 24M

This isn’t 2016, 25M isn’t star money anymore. Hell Gary Trent’s deal with the Buck is ⁴⁄₆₄ and he avg 8 points on under 40% shooting.

I see both sides…it was a super small glimpse of this breakout level of play…but at the same time, it was pretty undeniable how impressive and out of the blue that stretch was.

The problem is the current CBA allows zero wiggle room for taking gambles of guys, if you pay him that much and it was a mirage, that’s going to kill your financial situation for a few years.

If that brief breakout was real, you could have stumbled upon a star for under market value….completely depends on how real you think it was; I just can’t see anyone willing to take that financial risk for such a small sample size.

Take away that 15 game stretch and he averaged 12/4/2 in 27 minutes per game over 39 games.

People are gonna be upset if he gets paid. He’s best as an on ball player who isn’t scouted well. But he’s not good enough to be an on the ball player on a healthy, good NBA team.

He is…Would be a 6th man on a championship team at best. But he had that good month so now he thinks he’s the worth 30 million a year lol

Before this past season, I always hated how lost he looked on court, as he was never in the right place at the right time. His superb atheleticism always got him amazing blocks and amazing fast break dunks, but team defense, team offense, and his outside shot was pretty bad before this past season.

In that 15 game stretch, his aggressiveness towards the basket and his shot improved dramatically, and he didn’t look as lost on both ends of the floor. If he can do all that, with his amazing athleticism, he’s totally worth the 20-25 million. Like you said though, the problem is that it’s a small sample, and also mostly without Jokic, AG, Braun, and Cam on the floor with him, where he literally needed to be the second option with Jamal Murray only. He got injured and was out for the rest of the season when Jokic, AG, Braun, and Cam all started to come back.

He’s shown shooting potential and he already has (almost) everything else that makes for an elite basketball player so it’s really not that hard to comprehend. So many (nuggets) fans can’t sit right with how franchise owners want to spend their money.

He wants Braun money

His ability to defend is priceless though… with all the kids that grew up watching Steph curry coming…. Peyton Watson is the archtype to counter all that. Simple as that. The 14.6 on those shooting splits are just a bonus.

I’m convinced majority of “fans” have no fcking understanding of player salaries and the just how crazy the scale is now and is becoming.

He’s 23 years old with upside. A lot of upside. 25 million to potentially strike gold is a chance you need to take at times.

I’m a Laker fan. And this is how i feel about Kessler. He’s 24 with a lot of room to grow. Take a damn bet on that and getting tremendous value when that player ascends over the course of that contract.

we did this dance six years ago with the Nuggets and Jerami Grant

He’s a 6’8 wing that can defend decently well, is athletic, and has continued to improve as a shooter. I don’t expect him to be a 40% shooter but if his improvement is fairly real there, that’s a 23-24 year old two-way wing player. And I don’t think indexing on creation data is very useful for a player that’s not ever meant to be a playmaker or primary on-ball scorer unless he develops way more than we expect.

I get he still hasn’t proven he can elevated to a “star” role player level where the contract feels justified, but when you’re a young player often a team has to take the chance. If he continues to develop over the next two years and is more of a consistent 37-40% three point shooter, better connective passer, a little more iso playmaking as a fallback, and is a good defender then that $23-27 million salary would be cheap.

He’s not trying to get star money, he sees someone worse than him on his team making 25mill a year 

Overrated and underrated doesn’t mean anything. Everyone has their own opinions on players and someone that one person is high on someone else might be low on.

Wings are very valuable, I expect to get him atleast 20m per year

He’s definitely being over-valued, but that’s the place the NBA is at right now. He’s the “prototype” for what teams think they absolutely need to succeed, and that takes precedence over production for some reason.

He has an extremely high ceiling, and is only 23

He has size and can play 2-4 probably. He can play on both ends. Getting easy buckets in transition is a good trait. He has room to grow with his half court play. Lots of upside. So you don’t pay him money like you would to someone who you can give the ball to and make something happen. 25 million is an upsell, but only the best players get top rookie extensions. I don’t think his small game stretch warrants 20 million a year, but the worst thing you can do is not pay him and watch him ball out for someone who did.

I definitely think it’s a case where people imagine his highest ceiling and value him based on that.

There’s also this whole “he should make more than Braun” idea. The Braun contract was obviously a mistake and not reflective of the real market for either of them

His blocks are nasty. He’s super athletic even for nba standards

I don’t think Peyton Watson potential is overrated, he showed a lot when jokic was out including showing some ISO abilities showing some ability with the ball in his hands. And he has two way ability defensively to go along with his weak side shot blocking.

but I think his career is overrated the way people are talking about him right now, if you didn’t know better you would think he has been this player that has been this consistently good player for 4 years, instead of being a player that has shown flash of good play in his first 3 years, but also has been very inconsistent in his first 3 years, and at times unplayable when playoff time comes around, in Peyton Watson first 2 years when he was a regular part of Denver rotation he struggle come play off time, I am not counting his rookie year when he wasn’t part of the playoff rotation and he was at the end of the bench.

I find it interesting that people on Reddit especially are really hard on Jonathan kuminga but love Peyton Watson. I am confused about why Jonathan kuminga is trash but Peyton Watson is the next big thing, and why is Peyton Watson asking for over 25 million a year is okay but Jonathan kuminga asking for 20 plus million a year isn’t.

This is jealousy

P o t e n t i a l.  There is a chance he’s not done developing. If he has a few more seasons of consistent development, then he’s an all-star caliber players. He’s only 23

It’s almost August and he doesn’t have a deal yet.

Keon Ellis got a contract before him.

Not much of a hot commodity.

The Christian braun contract is a double whammy. It’s a big overpay for him, and then also it made Peyton Watson use it as a benchmark for himself

I agree

Bout to be overpaid too

The kaminga effect dude is a mid player people are hyping up. The kaminga talks had me rolling my eyes dude sucks

This is propaganda

Based on salar 90% of NBA players are overrated

Analytics guys cream their pants at 41% from 3.

This got never gets talked about and now that a few threads get made on him, he’s overrated? Lmao this sub is ridiculous

His halfcourt creation is not gonna be the reason why he’s gonna get paid tbf

not as badly as Deshaun Watson

you mean swatson? the best shot blocker in the league not named wembee

I’m sure the nuggets would of rather gave him Braun’s contract before they signed Christian. Watson is just a way better player than he is and has more potential as well.

$25/year is a reasonable ask when Denver gave that to Braun for comparable production at the same age not long ago.

He’s a high quality role player with a good attitude. I think the value is about right personally.

i agree, i think he’s a solid player and he had a good stretch but the sample size wasn’t large enough for him to be worth $25M, and especially not after he missed the playoffs too. he’s worth a NAW type contract like ⁴⁄₆₀ - ⁴⁄₈₀, 100+ million is too much

Maybe he’s overrated, but he’d already be paid if it wasn’t for the horrible Braun deal

Having watched him since he was a rookie he has progressed a lot! But I don’t think he does anything at an elite level now and I question how much higher is ceiling truly is which makes it hard to warrant his contract desires in this CBA. He is also injury prone and acts a bit immature at times. Overall I like him but I agree that he hasn’t really showed enough to be looking for this kind of payday.

You are right. unfortunately, our hands are tied because we paid “Christian braun” 25 million a year

Stats don’t tell the story. When he was in the start lining and getting significant minutes he was looking like a top 5 two way in the league.

He’s like braun. You know, a dude getting paid 25m/yr

Probably, but it’s up to him to find his value. He doesn’t need to let the Nuggets squeeze him just because they have no cap space.

I also feel like players who are on Denver gave their FG% inflated due to altitude and the jokic effect.

I agree. If I’m the Nuggets I’m trading pwat and a 1st for DJJ.

lol 14ppg wants a $100,000,000 contract

Gonna take a wild guess here that nuggets have recently learned why that’s a bad idea

He is a highlight defensive player with his blocking ability, that combined with some post-game graphics made for him dropping 30 in the stretch without Jokic has created a distorted view of him. He is absolutely a winning player and it makes complete sense that teams want him, but if youre paying him 25m a year, youre not making it far in the playoffs.

He the new Kuminga.