(Accounting for age) Who are your regression picks for next season?
Who will underperform next season?
In other words, Who do you think will have the biggest drop off in play next season?
The opposite of Most Improved.
Bam. He will not score 83 this year
I watched basketball for over 30 years and bam scoring 83 is the most wtf thing ive ever seen.
I think it’s still not as wtf as Tony Delk scoring 53….
Shout-out Malachi Flynn’s 50 ball
Willie Burton and Dana Barros put up 54 and 50 respectively for the terrible 24 win 94-95 Sixers!
Gotta include Corey Brewer’s 50 piece on all layups and dunks lol
Dude had range.
He wasn’t BAD but a 50 piece? come on nobody expected that
His shot chart:
https://library.sportingnews.com/2021-08/brewer-52-point-shotchart_1xiklo0rzof33115q9fnkuhs72.png
As a fan of the team that drafted him, he was a bust/reach.
Tony Delk getting 50 on a hot night with A prime Jason Kidd feeding him is more foreseeable than Bam dropping 83
People scored 50 though.
80+ pts is a class of 3
I watched Malachi Flynn put up 50 which was up there for me
He’s going for a simple 82.
Wilt. Bam. Bam again. Kobe
Out of respect for Mike Breen, he’s going for a double bam.
Bam bam!
going for the Bigelow
Outta respect for Bam!
Yeah. Because he’s getting 84!!!
84M Adebayo in big 2027
Aja is going to knock Bam up this summer.
He’s regressing from Wilt to regular Bam. Next year he’s only dropping 65 in a game, book it.
he will score 81 in honor of kobe
Yeah, 84 baby!
You’re right he will score 82 😂
Idk man, that’s only like one point per game. Seems pretty achievable.
kon I think since Lamelo is gone
I just looked at their roster…they either need brandon miller or kon to step up. That roster needs a star badly.
After having watched quite a lot of their games, Lamelo really was their initiator. Obviously the thing with them last year was that they had multiple guys that would create themselves which was why they were so fun to watch.
Then they traded 2 of them away.
You needed to look up the Hornets roster to figure that out? Been the case for a couple decades now… I love Kemba but bad team composition and lack of star power via getting stiffed in the lottery is the Hornets’ bread and butter. The Warriors taking Bagley “gifted” the team Lamelo but he wasn’t consistently healthy and Bridges was a sack of shit.
Miller has his own health issues but him and Kon are solid core to build off of that I’m sure the FO will fail to do.
Wiseman, not Bagley
Yeah, Sac is the team that fucked that one up. Pour one out for Vlade.
No. Vlade don’t get none.
LaMelo was so good as the playmaker, this won’t be pretty
He’s so young I don’t think he will get significantly worse, but I think his development will get massively slowed.
Didn’t he already get significantly worse the last like 20 games of the season including being benched in the clutch in their play in games?
Can’t speak for the his play down the stretch of the season, but he was truly godawful in the play-in game against the Heat
He was playing through a back injury at the end of the season. It really messed up his game.
Yeah melo’s gravity and playmaking is going to be a loss felt by pretty much their whole roster I think. Kinda due for a sophomore slump unfortunately.
They took a team that showed potential to be a legit contender with an entirely young core and just reverted back to tanking. With how deep the east is I don’t even think they make the play in. The way they played when healthy last year was reminiscent of when the Denver and OKC young cores started playing together and had similar insane advanced stats. I saw them as a potential future championship team and now they’re just back to perennial sadness.
I love Naz but Charlotte got fleeced. Idk why they traded away Ball. Makes no sense to me, but I am forever grateful.
Naz, 1 FRP, 3 FRP swaps, and 3 SRPs isn’t bad for a player who barely averages 50 games per season (unless none of those swaps convey). Minnesota got a great return with Lamelo, Green, and Evans, but I don’t think it was a fleece
Kon did pretty well in the games without lamello averaging 24 points.
Small sample size, and his efficiency took a hit.
10.3% worse from three without lamelo, when that’s your main shtick, is indeed a hit to efficiency
Funny you say that because Lamelo was going to be my answer
I think between adjusting to not being “the guy” and the injury risks around him there’s a good chance Minnesota fans will be disappointed with the next season
I wager his efficiency drops (potentially a lot) but his stats increase due to having more of the ball. I don’t think many will see that as regression tbh
This is crazy. Kon is not a product of lamelo. Kon is good by himself, and he’ll have an adequate PG at least
That whole Hornets team function because of Lamelo. He had really good on/off splits plus it passed the eye test.
Regress from the best rookie 3pt season ever? Maybe. The Hornets are going to ask him to do more, so he’s going to have some growing pains learning new skills (more like developing existing playmaking skills to NBA level like his shot). But I expect him to still be that sharpshooter, just on a shitter team so his numbers will look worse.
Its a small sample but he did play better in the 10 games without Lamelo
Kon was killing it when Lamelo was injured lol
lol this shit has 400 upvotes I will be back in 5 months
jalen duren because he is no longer playing for a contract (if he doesnt take the qo)
jalen johnson because he got his awards last season
jaylen brown less usage in philly
A Jalen pessimist I see
Less usage JB isn’t a bad thing inherently though.
I’ve critical of JB’s play in Boston for a variety of reasons (tunnel vision, decision-making, playmaking, off-ball defense, etc.) – but if he can improve on some of those flaws in a more streamlined, low-usage role in Philly… he could be a much more positively impactful guy towards winning.
To me, the actual pessimistic outlook would be that he doesn’t change his playstyle, with that resulting in a clunky fit with the other stars.
I’m not a Celtics fan and not inherently a brown fan, but what the fuck more does he have to do to “positively impact winning?”
He won a championship, he won fmvp. Even if some people think Tatum deserved that award, Brown clearly fucking impacted winning.
Celtics were expected to be trash last year and they won 50 some thing without a functional center. The major impact player that everyone loves to praise, D White, had a down year, too.
I don’t think he’s an mvp, but so tired of hearing how he’s trash
I don’t think the comment you are replying is saying he is trash. Actually a very fair take. Yes, you are right, he impacted winning in 2024 even though the reward wasn’t objective at all. He did it with less usage, feasting on the lanes produced out of Tatum doubles and shooters everywhere, being one-on-one defender on Luka while the driving lanes and lobs were closed behind him with a defensive scheme centering Tatum and two other great guard defenders chasing corners. He was put in a role he is great at, that is defending strong wings (or players like Luka) on an island (a bad off-ball defender but he fights with screens very well unless his man is too quick) and being a play finisher. (For reference, he had worse defensive impact all that playoffs compared to Tatum as well as less of every other stat and anyone paying attention can see why, no need for advance stats.) That is his real value, a killer when he is the play finisher. Last year is a complete different story, it was broken down a million times how we won, against who we won and against who we lost and what happens with and without him or Tatum against certain teams. If anything is lazy, it is just looking to the record, box scores and thinking he carried. So the comment is right, if he tries that again, it will be miserable for Philly but if he reverts back to his role before FMVP, it can be a great year for Philly and he can shine. That is not saying he is trash.
This video explains his pitfalls https://youtu.be/7QQehiGMNws?is=PMM5wgmeeUmrEzua the comment your responding to also explained them pretty well but this goes more into depth.
This is a super bad faith misrepresentation of my comment. I never said JB is trash lol. He’s a very talented player who’s certainly somewhere in the top 10-20 in the league. Go back and re-read my comment carefully, bc you’re totally imagining things that I never said.
All I said was that, particularly with the style of basketball he played last year, there were obvious flaws. You asked: “what the fuck more does he have to do to “positively impact winning?“”… and I had already mentioned 4 examples of areas of improvement in my original comment lmao.
What you have to realize is that — as someone who’s on a $300 million contract and makes all-NBA teams — JB is going to be held to a high standard, and it’s fair to critically analyze his game. And when you compare him to other top 20 players, he falls short in a lot of areas that are relevant to winning.
That’s literally it. If he can mould his playstyle to highlight his strengths and minimize his flaws in a lower-usage role, that will only be good for Philly. I don’t think that’s a controversial or overly harsh/uncharitable take at all.
lol too many to avoid
Jalen Rose worst thing to happen to his life.
The Ja(y)len jinx?
Agree with all but Johnson. He doesn’t strike me as someone who will ease up, and I watched a lot of his games.
I don’t think I’d bet on Nickei Alexander-Walker averaging 20 ppg again.
i don’t know, his efficiency last season was reasonably in line with what he did the last three seasons. he just took more shots and hit more free throws. he might have another 20 in him
that is a fair argument
Well it sure won’t be Dyson Daniels either.
it will be CJ McCollum then.
Honestly think this could be another breakout year for him
I’m expecting another jump. Dude is good
deni avdija but i have no actual reason
ja and dame taking usage is a reason
Wouldn’t surprise me. Going from flying in a PJ to a road-tripping in a 95 Econoline is going to take a toll on the Blazers.
I’d give you an award but I’m the blazers owner
Tom don’t move the team
Bit rich
Outstanding
Yeah I hate to say it as a Blazer fan but Deni’s on ball usage probably gets cut in half by Dame and Ja. I still think he’ll be awesome and can get back to playing some defense so it’s not all bad.
It was promised to us 3,000 years ago.
Were the good jokes promised to us 3000 years ago too?
you on the wrong site for good jokes. reddit just copies jokes from Twitter and IG
They all just copy lmao, ig comments might be the worst
I Think Donovan Mitchell is going hit a regression point this season
A regression to what? He’s been playing at an extremely high level since he entered the league, and didn’t show signs of slowing down. He’s 29.
he did show signs in the playoffs last season at least, dude is usually all time but sucked ass
Dirk was was 28 the year we lost to Golden State in the 1st round. He sucked ass but did not regress.
Mitchell is young and isn’t going to fall apart after a subpar playoff performance.
People overate playoff performances way too much as a predictor for how a player will play during the following season.
I understand that playoff basketball is different than regular season basketball, and ultimately the playoffs are what defines legacies. However, as a prediction tool they’re noisy and based a small sample size.
Toronto’s defense is elite. Mobley played well against them. It was just a bad matchup for Mitchell.
He averaged 26, 5 and 3 on 45/33/82 shooting splits. That’s hardly sucking ass. One thing that should be harped on is he has a 3-year trend of being a massive playmaking dropper in the playoffs. During the last 3 years, he’s averaged 5.5 assists in the regular season, but only 3.7 in the playoffs.
Your Raptors specifically exploited Mitchell’s hero ball with their defensive scheming, starting in game 3. Jason Timpf on Hoops Tonight (link below) did a fantastic breakdown of what the Raptors did. Detroit copied it a bit, but New York really adopted it. And for 3 straight series, Mitchell did not make the correct reads, not trusting his teammates to make shots. If I were to rewatch the games, I promise I could take at least 4-7 screenshots in each game of Mitchell forcing a shot with 4-5 Raptors surrounding him while he has 3 open shooters (and a likely wide open shooter off a swing/swing), if only Mitchell had simply made the read.
https://youtu.be/NX8E8eFg_Cw?is=dm0tDTnbceviG8Sc
I do see some athletic dropoff from his early-mid 20s, but I do not see enough athletic decline to make me think he will be in this conversation for at least one more year. It might even take an injury to precipitate his fall because he’s too good of a ballhandler and shooter to be falling off below 20 ppg or 43% shooting, which is what it’d take to be the Most Declined Player.
despite his scoring numbers looking pretty good, it hardly felt like he hurt the raptors with his scoring in all honesty. his playmaking was definitely poor.
i remember cavs subreddit game threads being surprised at how poor he looked this year compared to previous years though
With all due respect, he was absolutely awesome in the first 2 games. 31, 5 and 5 on 56% from the field and 47% from 3. It was literally the Raptors defensive scheming that partially shut him down. I say partially because Mitchell refused to stop playing hero ball and take what the Raptors defense gave him. He literally only averaged 2.4 assists per game from games 3 through 7.
Had Mitchell made the most basic reads, there’s no reason he couldn’t have averaged 22 pts and 7 assists, accepting the lower scoring numbers but raising his teammates. But he chose not to.
These are things that specifically relate to a Kobe-like hero ball mentality and separately, a lack of high-level basketball IQ. But these are not things that point to an impending decline. Until he drops below 15% of his field goal attempts within 3 feet of the rim or less than 10 dunks per season, pointing to true, material athletic decline, I don’t think he’ll be worthy of consideration for this topic.
He was the only one that looked like he was trying in the playoffs.
Mitchell’s struggles in the playoffs weren’t so much a physical regression as much as him having horrendous tunnel vision as a ball handler. Dude was passing up wide open shooters and dunkers in favor of driving into a wall of defenders.
His fatal flaw as a player is he quickly he abandons the offense and goes into grind mode. Game 3 onward you guys were collapsing on the paint and throwing a lot of zone at him and he kept creating this situation over and over again.
He’s a 6’1 guard that requires athleticism. Outside of Steph, that build doesn’t age.
I keep thinking he’s young but he’s been itl for like 10 years now
I hope he doesn’t. He has the prettiest game in the league in my opinion. Obviously there are holes in his game, but he’s been pretty efficient. I don’t really see him taking any steps backwards until he’s worn down by time. Hopefully that’s still years away.
I don’t think he’s going to regress but I definitely think he has peaked
Jalen Duren and don’t need to add to it
Really hoping Duren doesn’t see an Ayton season with the way this offseason has gone.
Hopefully Duren is less sensitive than Ayton, Ayton got his max and was still butt hurt about it. I have to assume for Pistons fans sake that Duren is mentally much stronger than Ayton. Ayton is probably the softest dude I’ve seen play in the league.
Does he even have a contract lol
Someone like DeMar is going to hit that old dude wall pretty soon
Sure he doesn’t rely on athleticism anymore , but dude barely has any lift on his turnaround jumper and stepbacks
He’s still good for like 15-18 a night , no longer the dude that was a lock for 20-24 every single night
Demar i hear this demar i agree
Yeah, he’s really gonna have a lot of trouble matching last year’s stats if he can’t find a team to sign him.
Mahomes and entire chiefs offense will be shit
He’s actually pretty average when you regress to the mean all the things that make him special
ting on every defense in the league!
Definitely Peyton Watson. January 2026 against tanking teams will be the peak of his career.
Meanwhile, Christian Braun is an obvious bounce back candidate just like Michael Porter Jr last year.
Watson in January faced Cavs (21pts), 6ers (24), Celtics (30), Hawks (25), Lakers (18) & Pistons (13). Then scored 29 against OKC on first of Feb. With so many teams tanking last season, every player is gonna face a bunch of them each month.
Coop getting way too old
Rui Hachimura. I think he benefitted a lot from the Lakers’ playmakers.
Ya. He’s not going to be Luka open ever again… or kawahi open. Just Darius garland open. And that prob just isn’t enough.
Ben Simmons will struggle to reel in as many fish
derrick white
He was pretty bad last year already.
if the analytics say Jaylen Brown was overrated, and Derrick White was definitely terrible last year, to the analytic guys, why were the Celtics the #2 seed? Couldn’t have just been Pritchard.
This is why I don’t buy the Jaylen Brown 7th best player bs
if the analytics say Jaylen Brown was overrated, and Derrick White was definitely terrible last year
Umm quite the opposite. Analytics portrayed Derrick White as one of the best NBA players last season.
Analytics isn’t literally TS percentage lol. I feel like people here don’t even know what analytics is. Analytical people would actually laugh at you if you thought analytics was just FG percentage or 3 point percentage. That’s not analytics at all, that’s more so basic stuff non-analytical people can understand just to make them feel like they belong.
There’s a reason why coach we won analytically called White a top 5 player in the league last season.
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1ro7vkt/fred_katz_kenny_atkinson_just_said_before/
You can read the comments from that post to see what I mean. In particular click on the comment near the top that says “someone’s been looking at the advanced stats” and there’s a larger discussion relevant to what you are talking about with Derrick White.
In 789 minutes this season, lineups with Derrick White in, and Brown/Tatum out had a +19.44 net rating. Lineups with Brown in, and White/Tatum out had a -1.10 net rating.
I wouldn’t even consider that analytics either. Teams just are better when Derrick White is on the court. He’s had a positive on/off every single season of his career. The guy is just a winning player.
So you meant to tell me that the Celtics were worse when most of their starters were out? Preposterous
Two words
Luka Garza
The Town
no one buys the jaylen brown 7th best bs
Legitimately because of their system and execution. Even though they were 11th in ts%, they were 2nd in the nba in off rating because off their focus on offensive rebounding and not turning the ball over, giving them more oppurtunities to score. Their defense was 4th im rating because the team runs a great system of helping, recovering and forcing kick outs and tough 3s. Jaylen shot worse than the Celtics average team ts%. He’s not a good rebounder, turns the ball over, and is bad at help defense. Its why his on/off is negative, because he’s not good at the things that make the Celtics good.
Lots of mouths to feed in Philly, players who are ball dominant as well and there’s only one ball.
Eh, plenty of DNPs will make it easier for everyone to eat.
Pacers are the biggest risk. They were a mediocre reg season team but caught fire in the playoffs…if they can start the season consistent they’ll be amazing. But if they don’t it will be interesting to watch
The Pacers made the ECF two years in a row.
I understand that the team wasn’t a dominant regular season team, but they put two post seasons together with deep runs.
They were the second best team in the league after January in 2025. Health has usually been their issue.
Thank you, they were on pace for a 60 win full season the back half of that year
They were absolutely not a mediocre regular season team. They were an exceptional regular season team that got off to a poor start. I distinctly remember many Zach Lowe podcasts discussing them as a dark horse and making a statistical case based on their advanced metrics when you discounted the first 20 or so games of the year.
The Pacers were 34-14 from Jan 1 to the end of the regular season
I wouldn’t bet against Rick Carlisle, he is a coaching wizard
Pacers were on pace for a 60 win season post January last year… injuries are important context
Honestly, Lebron. Which is an odd answer because I also think he will be better than most players in the league 5-6 years younger than him, and he likely will make the ECF next season.
You mean most 15 to 16 years younger.
So a regression to 18 PPG? 😆
The advanced analytics have said LeBron has been precipitously declining for the last 2 years.
If their trends continue he’ll be a losing player next year and have less impact on winning than when he was a rookie.
Devin Booker’s already been regressing a little but I think we see a bigger drop off this season
The Suns looked more like Brooks’ team in the playoffs than Booker’s
Donnovan Mitchell. His shooting has been almost the same and slowly getting worse in big games, he also heavily relies on athleticism.
James Harden feels like an easy answer to this question but wtf do I know
[deleted]
Lakers? Bad whistle? Come on now
man I hope not
You just mad he hung 44 on yall in Toronto.
Every time Luka or Bron or both were out he balled out but I guess lol
As long as Luka is healthy I don’t see why his numbers will drop.
I’m genuinely very concerned for both Tyrese Maxey and VJ. Philly is looking really strong as a team but who is going to feel the biggest drop off in their scoring? I think it’s gonna be Maxey.
KD might seem like an easy pick but he’s such a dominant baller still. I think he still has a couple of good seasons left in him. Reeves will be fine as long as Luka is healthy.
Ja and Lamelo are question marks for me and I do think Kennuple is going to hit the sophomore wall hard especially since there’s no Lamelo there.
Maxey’s usage was WAY too high last season, if anything the new players will provide some welcome relief.
If LeBron actually is the primary ball handler, I think Maxey takes the damage. He’ll get more open shots but he’s such a dynamic physical presence with the ball in his hands.
Maxey is great off the ball and he’s played well off Harden before. I don’t think Maxey will be the issue.
I really don’t know what Lebron is smoking when he wanted to be PG on the Sixers. When AR was out he struggled as the 2nd ball handler. Like just losing the ball randomly.
Maxey’s getting at minimum 25. If there’s one person I’m confident will get his shot, it’s him
Might be a hot take but I could see Steph decline some.. Not biggest drop off necessarily but that knee will probably flare up again and their roster just isn’t good enough. He’ll still have explosive nights but I think he’ll have a lot more stinkers than usual
paul george
I think De’Aaron Fox will be another fast small guard that quickly fades out of the league
detroit baby
DeMar DeRozan. His scoring, shot attempts, and minutes all dropped a bit last season and I just see him continuing that downward trend next season when he’ll be turning 37.
Seemed like they needed him early and then put him on the back burner down the stretch. Could get a bump if he ends up somewhere else.
Tyrese Haliburton
Dont think he’ll be worse than last season personally
ESPN should hire you for takes like this
What are you talking about?? He didn’t miss a single shot last year!
devin booker
It’s already happening and they still refuse to get him a set up man
I feel like zubac will regress a little
He definitely regressed a bit last season, before the injury. He was pretty bad with the Clippers, and a big reason they started 5-16.
I think Steph will have a similar regression to 24-25 Bron this year
24-25 Bron wasn’t regression, he was sixth in mvp and got the Lakers to the third seed. 25-26 was regression though
The year he finished 6th in the MVP?
bron only really had that regression cuz luka joined. the year after he slid to the 3rd option
Lamelo. That’s gonna be a messy fit in Minnesota until he and Ant figure out how to play together. The team’s been up and down for years, and Randle was to blame for some of that, but there’s still big personalities and egos in that locker room. Their ceiling’s higher now but it could be a rough regular season and I think Lamelo’s numbers will take a hit.
Interesting.
I’m admittedly probably biased, but I’ve felt like Ant/LaMelo would be near perfect fits together even as far back as before the 2020 draft (I wanted both players and would have loved finding a way to get a second top 3 pick).
Both are pretty shot-happy and have a high usage, so I totally get your concerns. But LaMelo has a long history of being more than willing to get off the ball and very good at moving the ball quickly — he grew up in that Chino Hills system where the ball was always pinging back and forth. I’d put LaMelo as a top 10 (possibly higher) NBA passer.
He’s also a very willing spacer, who has an absolutely insane 3pt rate (took 13.2 threes per 36 minutes — Steph Curry’s career high is 13.4 per 36) on a diet of wildly deep ones. Ant was one of the most doubled players in the entire league last year. It’ll be VERY hard to double him with LaMelo on the court, who can both pull up from deep range if you give him space AND can pick you apart in a 4 on 3.
Meanwhile, I think Ant being the top of the scouting report will help out LaMelo. Ant has some of the most gravity of any NBA player, which makes LaMelo’s job way easier, all while getting the other team’s second best defender.
My biggest concern is LaMelo’s health and the gaping hole at PF.
I believe the exact opposite. Lamelo is going to shine with that strong a team around him, and the perpetual pessimism around his game (“not a winning player”) is finally going to evaporate.
There’s a chance it works. But it might have some growing pains. He’s played second fiddle to his brothers and other stars before. But since Slovenia or whatever/ it’s been the lamelo show and this is Ants Target Center.
Kevin durant
He looked mortal during the playoffs.
Jalen Duren. He will be throwing a tantrum all season because a quarter of a billion dollars didn’t fall out of the sky.
Brunson
My goat winning his first mvp next year
Chet?
This is an irrational take. Chet will always have DPOY level defensive impact, and I don’t see why his offense wouldn’t improve.
chet had one horrible (admittedly very horrible) series and people seem to think he’s just a worthless player
as someone who thinks he’s not quite worth the contract, he still was a generational prospect away from winning DPOY to go along with his all defense/all nba selection. i think with a healthy dub back, he might just stick around 16 ppg but defensively will improve
He’s a DPOY level player at the most important defensive position.
He stretches the floor and makes scoring easier for everyone.
If he’s not worth 40 million what center is?
He is only 24. I think he’ll continue improving actually.
Jaylen Brown is going to catch up to his advanced metrics.
None of his advanced metrics are going to change, but his counting stats will and people will finally see that the metrics are right.
Jaylen Brown is the free space
Not cuz he’ll be bad but the team around him is slightly better than it was last year
Slightly lol
LeBron is gonna be 42 in January next season. No way this fuckery continues
Come back again in 10 years lmao
I’m worried about Deni’s back injury and him moving more off ball.
VJ Edgecombe
I don’t want to lay bad juju on anybody, but when a player leaves Boston they always get worse. It’s practically an iron rule
LaMelo and Duren
I don’t wish for it, but I suspect y’all will understand why we trade LaMelo by around game 25. We’ll see.
Lebron, hes got to fade one day. I pick him starting this year
Austin Reaves, Norman Powell, Steph Curry, Deni Advija, Pascal Siakam
AR’s game doesn’t require athleticism. Doubt he’ll start a decline until mid 30s
Cade
LeBron is gonna play like a fringe all-star in Philly as they have to work out what that team is gonna do each night and what LeBron’s gonna be asked to do.
Naz Reid, bam adebayo will have drop offs.
Mikal bridges and Derick white will have bounce backs.
As much as it pains me to say it, having another fanbase consume 82 games of Naz Reid will be very healing for me. He’s great and an all timer for the Wolves but he’s got a handful of flaws