I think Braun is better than most of you here give him credit for. Me had a bag year last year with an early injury and then never got back on track. The year before he was playing better than Watson ever has. I think a lot of y’all are going to be eating crow when he comes out and justified his contract this year.

I mean technically they can afford whatever they want. 

But yea, I feel like I’m watching the Bucks window close all over again over in Denver. Too much money tied up. 

Does that ever actually work though? I feel like its a bunk theory, and if im a fan id be more pissed if my FO is making moves because joe blow on X said im cheap lol

Player A is a 2 year starter and played high valued minutes in the playoffs including during a championship run.

Player B is athletic, but never cracked the starting lineup without injuries and has played zero meaningful playoff minutes. He’s also coming off an injury and the feeling in the org is that he could have played but didn’t to protect himself on a contract year.

Who would you pay more?

no but tari eason is better than both of them and he just got 5/81M.

They don’t control the market because they don’t control the player. Watson can simply…not sign. At which point he’s walking for nothing next year. 

That’s not how it works in other hard cap leagues and I’d argue we’re going to get more “on what they hope to achieve” contracts because you’re going to have to focus on developing your drafted talent over big money contracts in FA. 

Hell, look at baseball in what is the opposite of a hard cap. My own brewers gave out a hefty contract for 8 years to a dude that has played a month of MLB baseball in the hopes it becomes a a value deal down the line based on what they believe he can do, not what he has done. They did that because they essentially do have their own hard cap—they don’t make any money lol. But that’s a way they can get more bang for their buck 

That average is lower than the MLE, he can take the QO, and if he gets a GTJ deal next year, he’ll still be better off

I’m pretty sure the clippers are waiting for the kawhi transaction to settle so they can sign him 

Grimes is a much more proven 3pt shooter. He has multiple seasons shooting 38%, while Watson has 1 good season by percentage, which was largely corner 3s and overall very low volume (197 total attempts, 40% of those from the corner). Watson also suffered a hamstring strain and then re-aggravated it and then missed the end of the season and didn’t return for the postseason.

Watson had a really good January where he averaged 25/7/3 plus a steal and a block, which is what a lot of people are forecasting his future on, but Grimes had a month period where he averaged 27/5/5 with 2 steals before he ultimately accepted the QO, which is why I think he’s an interesting comparison point for PWat.

I don’t think this is the best contract that Watson could get, and I definitely wouldn’t accept 5 years for it if I were in his shoes, but I don’t think that $14-15M AAV is actually that far off for the career that Peyton Watson has had.

Where are the offer sheets then?

That’s true. People need not to overreact to good performance over a short timespan. Thinking Watson is worth a multi year $25M+ contract is crazy.

The latter is why I would not like to pay a big contract for Watson. Can he be on the rise? Yes, but the risk, between his short burst of high level play and the Jokic effect, that this is the type of contract that will be an anchor within 2 years. I would not be comfortable with more than ⁴⁄₈₀ and arguably a front-loaded contract. More than that? i rather take the chance to miss out on him.

FACT (KCP was the starter)

That would be great news for the Nuggets. Team X signs him to an offer sheet for the MLE, around $15m and they just match. Horrible deal for Watson.

The reason he didn’t play is that he was already injured.

Braun isn’t overpaid. He was an important piece to a championship team and then became a starter shooting near 40% from 3 and averaging 15 ppg while being a solid defender. He was paid market rate for that production. He just got injured last year and played poorly when he came back, but there is no indication that he won’t return to form.