[OC] Star’s records as favorites and underdogs
I gathered the records as favorites and underdogs for star players from here: https://www.covers.com/sportsoddshistory/nba-playoffs-series/?y=0000
For series wins over expectation, I removed the vig from the odds to get implied probabilities, and calculated it from there.
| Player | As Favorite | As Underdog | Series | Wins Over Expectation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James | 35-5 | 7-10 | 57 | +5.42 |
| Michael Jordan | 28-1 | 2-6 | 37 | +4.67 |
| Kobe Bryant | 32-5 | 1-5 | 43 | +3.25 |
| Steph Curry | 23-3 | 1-3 | 30 | +2.70 |
| Jimmy Butler | 6-1 | 6-10 | 23 | +2.56 |
| Hakeem Olajuwon | 9-2 | 7-11 | 29 | +2.49 |
| Tim Duncan | 31-7 | 4-6 | 48 | +2.39 |
| Kevin Garnett | 10-0 | 3-13 | 26 | +2.29 |
| Paul Pierce | 10-4 | 6-9 | 29 | +2.05 |
| Dwyane Wade | 19-2 | 3-8 | 32 | +1.88 |
| Shaquille O’Neal | 28-7 | 4-6 | 45 | +1.54 |
| Luka Dončić | 1-1 | 4-4 | 10 | +1.24 |
| Nikola Jokić | 6-3 | 4-4 | 17 | +1.16 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | 7-3 | 6-11 | 27 | +0.78 |
| Kawhi Leonard | 16-5 | 3-4 | 28 | +0.70 |
| Allen Iverson | 4-1 | 2-7 | 14 | +0.38 |
| Russell Westbrook | 9-3 | 3-10 | 25 | -0.03 |
| Damian Lillard | 0-2 | 4-8 | 14 | -0.44 |
| Reggie Miller | 10-4 | 4-11 | 29 | -0.45 |
| Steve Nash | 9-2 | 2-10 | 23 | -0.52 |
| Paul George | 6-3 | 3-9 | 21 | -0.61 |
| Kevin Durant | 20-6 | 2-6 | 34 | -0.86 |
| James Harden | 14-4 | 1-12 | 31 | -0.99 |
| Charles Barkley | 10-1 | 2-12 | 25 | -1.09 |
| Joel Embiid | 5-2 | 1-6 | 14 | -1.24 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 6-3 | 2-5 | 16 | -1.69 |
| Tracy McGrady | 3-1 | 0-7 | 11 | -2.21 |
| Chris Paul | 9-6 | 3-9 | 27 | -2.80 |
| Carmelo Anthony | 3-4 | 0-9 | 16 | -3.31 |
I also split up wins over expected by performance as the fave vs underdog to see what happens:
| Player | As-favorite WOE | As-underdog WOE | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James | +3.07 | +2.34 | +5.42 |
| Michael Jordan | +4.70 | −0.03 | +4.67 |
| Steph Curry | +2.65 | +0.05 | +2.70 |
| Jimmy Butler | +0.82 | +1.74 | +2.56 |
| Paul Pierce | +0.41 | +1.64 | +2.05 |
| Luka Dončić | −0.28 | +1.52 | +1.24 |
| Nikola Jokić | −0.34 | +1.49 | +1.16 |
| James Harden | +1.00 | −1.98 | −0.99 |
| Chris Paul | −1.90 | −0.90 | −2.80 |
| Carmelo Anthony | −1.45 | −1.85 | −3.31 |
Lebron’s the only one that’s hugely positive as both a favorite and underdog. Harden’s disastrous as an underdog.
Here are the biggest choke by implied probability:
| Series | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
| 2007 Mavericks vs Warriors: Nowitzki | 92.5% |
| 2020 Clippers vs Nuggets: Kawhi/PG13 | 89.8% |
| 2023 Bucks vs Heat: Giannis | 88.7% |
| 2009 Cavaliers vs Magic: LeBron | 85.0% |
| 2004 Lakers vs Pistons: Kobe/Shaq | 84.0% |
| 2026 Rockets vs Lakers: KD | 81.6% |
| 2018 76ers vs Celtics: Embiid | 81.2% |
| 2016 Clippers vs Trail Blazers: CP3/Pierce | 81.2% |
| 2010 Cavaliers vs Celtics: LeBron/Shaq | 79.9% |
| 2020 Bucks vs Heat: Giannis | 78.6% |