[OC] I analyzed James Harden’s performance in every NBA city to see if there is a correlation between his scoring and the city’s Bike Score
Everyone knows James Harden’s game relies heavily on spacing.
Usually, people mean spacing on the basketball court. But I wanted to see whether Harden might also benefit from spacing off the court in the form of bike lanes.
So I compared Harden’s road performance in every NBA city with the city’s Bike Score, which measures how convenient a city is for cycling based on its bike lanes, hills, road connectivity and access to destinations.
I collected all of Harden’s regular-season road game logs from the 2015–16 through 2018–19 seasons, because those were his prime years.
For each city, I calculated Harden’s scoring averages and the percentage of games in which he reached different scoring thresholds.
I then compared those results with each city’s Bike Score.
| Harden statistic | Correlation with Bike Score |
|---|---|
| Percentage of games with 33+ points | r = .668 |
| Percentage of games with 35+ points | r = .646 |
| Percentage of games with 40+ points | r = .570 |
| Season-adjusted average points | r = .533 |
| Season-adjusted points per 36 minutes | r = .520 |
| Season-adjusted Game Score | r = .494 |
The strongest relationship was between Bike Score and Harden’s percentage of games with at least 33 points:
| Team | City used | Bike Score | Harden 33+ point rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | Atlanta | 41.7 | 9.1% |
| Boston Celtics | Boston | 69.4 | 36.4% |
| Brooklyn Nets | New York | 69.3 | 22.2% |
| Charlotte Hornets | Charlotte | 31.3 | 10.0% |
| Chicago Bulls | Chicago | 72.2 | 30.0% |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Cleveland | 52.3 | 20.0% |
| Dallas Mavericks | Dallas | 49.3 | 25.0% |
| Denver Nuggets | Denver | 71.8 | 20.0% |
| Detroit Pistons | Detroit | 52.1 | 18.2% |
| Golden State Warriors | San Francisco | 72.3 | 21.4% |
| Houston Rockets | Houston | 48.6 | 0.0% |
| Indiana Pacers | Indianapolis | 42.8 | 27.3% |
| Los Angeles Clippers | Los Angeles | 58.7 | 30.8% |
| Los Angeles Lakers | Los Angeles | 58.7 | 23.5% |
| Memphis Grizzlies | Memphis | 41.2 | 21.4% |
| Miami Heat | Miami | 64.0 | 33.3% |
| Milwaukee Bucks | Milwaukee | 57.6 | 10.0% |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Minneapolis | 83.5 | 43.8% |
| New Orleans Pelicans | New Orleans | 65.7 | 33.3% |
| New York Knicks | New York | 69.3 | 18.2% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Oklahoma City | 40.2 | 13.3% |
| Orlando Magic | Orlando | 56.8 | 18.2% |
| Philadelphia 76ers | Philadelphia | 66.7 | 22.2% |
| Phoenix Suns | Phoenix | 55.9 | 30.8% |
| Portland Trail Blazers | Portland | 82.7 | 50.0% |
| Sacramento Kings | Sacramento | 66.9 | 37.5% |
| San Antonio Spurs | San Antonio | 44.5 | 18.8% |
| Washington Wizards | Washington, D.C. | 69.5 | 45.5% |
Toronto and Salt Lake City were excluded because the city dataset used for the analysis did not contain directly comparable Bike Score values for them.
The overall correlation between Bike Score and Harden’s percentage of 33-point road games was:
The two highest Bike Scores in the dataset belonged to Minneapolis and Portland. Harden scored at least 33 points in 43.8% of his Minnesota road games and 50.0% of his Portland road games.
Meanwhile, several of the lowest-scoring cycling cities—including Atlanta, Charlotte and Oklahoma City—had some of Harden’s lowest 33-point rates.
There were obviously exceptions. Washington had only the eighth-highest Bike Score but one of Harden’s highest scoring rates, while Denver had an excellent Bike Score without producing the same Harden explosion.
Still, across all 28 opponents, the overall trend was clear.
Bike Score data: Walk Score city rankings and Bike Score methodology.
Bike Score measures cycling suitability on a scale from 0 to 100 using bike lanes, hills, destinations, street connectivity and bicycle commuting levels.
This is a strong positive correlation.
Cities with higher Bike Scores had substantially more major Harden scoring performances.
Approximately 45% of the city-to-city variation in Harden’s 33-point game rate was associated with the city’s Bike Score.
Higher Bike Scores were also associated with more 35-point games, more 40-point games, higher average scoring and better overall box-score performances by game score, etc.
I have proven, to a statistically significant degree, that James Harden performs better in cities with better cycling infrastructure.
Why does Harden perform better in bike-friendly cities?
There may be a conditioning effect. In cities with high Bike Scores, Harden is constantly surrounded by cyclists, which subconsciously reminds him to keep his legs active. This improves his stamina, allowing him to maintain his scoring later into games.
Bike-friendly cities also tend to have flatter terrain. This saves Harden from wasting valuable energy walking uphill before games. Every foot of elevation avoided can instead be redirected toward step-back three-pointers and drawing questionable shooting fouls.
And finally, protected bike lanes create a physical separation between cyclists and drivers. Harden sees this and is reminded of the importance of isolation basketball.
TL;DR
James Harden scores more in bike-friendly cities.
Bike Score had a .668 correlation with the percentage of his road games in which he scored at least 33 points.
James Harden does not just need spacing on the court.
He needs spacing in the streets of his opponents.
Source for bike score: https://www.walkscore.com/cities-and-neighborhoods/ scroll down to bike score
Here’s a graph showing all the cities: https://imgur.com/a/0l3DTNq