A combination of injuries, regression to the mean, and underperformance.

Decapitated. Whole big thing. We had a funeral for a bird.

Not a Blue Jays fan, but from my perspective a lot of returning players have underperformed from last year. Vlad, Springer, Kirk, etc. They actually had a decent offseason too, but doesn’t help if the core doesn’t perform. 

Crushed under the weight of expectations

I think there are multiple factors but if I were to point out two:

Defence is really struggling. Everyone is making errors

Batters are dead cold. I think Okamoto is doing good job replacing Bo, but Vladdy is not hitting at all. I think I heard Jays has -50?-60 run differentials, which is the lowest in both AL and NL leagues and Jays also has the lowest ops

+
on going injuries in the beginning of the season + there are almost no reliable starting pitchers except Cease and Yesavage. Gausman is ⁵⁰⁄₅₀

Well for starters, their 500 million dollar guy is playing like he’s a 5 million in 5 years kind of guy.

Outside Cease and Varland, everyone from their pitching staff has regressed.

Their MVP candidate plays every day only has 6 home runs

I find it incredibly difficult to put anything on the FO.

They locked up our superstar. Shored up both bullpen and rotation, heavily. Brought in a great 3B from NPB in Kaz. Swung and missed at Tucker, that’s okay, we got the guys from last year, less Bo, who has been pretty un-Bo for a lot of the year. We all thought we had too much SP going into the season. But then

Berrios - one of our biggest innings guys since 2022. Tommy John

Shane Bieber - only started getting into games a few weeks ago, got nuked a few times because he never really got to shake the cobwebs off

Cody Ponce - a reliable arm, freshly reinvented from KBO where he won the MVP. Blew his leg out in his 3rd inning

Bowden Francis - still recovering from TJ last year

Yimi Garcia - constant new and weird injuries, bad case of oldmanitis

Max Scherzer - constantly injured, terrible when he was here

Addison Barger - an excellent source of much needed pop last year, who we all expected to take another leap, blows out his ankles. First game back, blows out his arm, and then his back while rehabbing. Has like sub 30 PA.

Anthony Santander - should have got the surgery he knew he needed LAST YEAR. Terrible signing for the team so far, but they tried

Alejandro Kirk - back now but missed most of the season with a demolished thumb from a catching incident

I’m almost certainly missing some guys.

Anyway add that to the fact that Springer got injured and hasn’t been able to hit since, Vladdy is probably fighting a back injury and the mental load of being the guy, and Daulton Varsho, my beloved, does not appear to know which end of a bat to hold….

It’s been a bad time.

Vlad disappeared.

Injuries but mostly the front office massively overestimating the bats they had. Almost the entire lineup had career years in 2025 and that was pretty much impossible to replicate, especially with Bo gone. Vladdy doing absolutely nothing has been the icing on the cake.

Its baseball

Turns out the real Blue Jays were the early season 2025 Jays. Though, somehow the 2026 team is worse than that, due to injuries and underperforming.

This is why last year’s insane loss in the World Series hurt so much more than just being crushed. We caught lightning in a bottle and everyone expected that to continue into this year.

It’s never that way in baseball.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Anthony Volpe have the same 2026 wRC+

They lost the power of friendship

I mean, if look at the amount of one run games we won last year and just flipped them the other way, we would be in a pretty similar spot. Last year was just so many pieces falling into the right place at the right time, it was like catching lightning in a bottle for that group of players. And I fucking loved every minute of it.

They probably overproduced a bit last year but even if you compare them to the 2024 team the offense has been just awful this year. Seems like their good players are just all having down years at the same time. Not sure if there is an actual reason for it or just an off year.

The same thing that happened to the Mariners.

Too many key injuries and the stars ain’t starring.

Injuries

Vladdy Jr suddenly turned into 2024-2025 Luis Arraez.

According to r/torontobluejays it’s just early and anyone who shows concern about the team knows nothing about baseball.

The 2025 season was super lucky. That’s kinda what you need to win

I love this team , we will be back. =,dumb.

Everyone got mad at Michael Kay for saying that the Blue Jays were outperforming their peripherals last season, but here we are.

Add natural regression to Bichette leaving and Guerrero mysteriously falling off the cliff, and this is what you get.

(All that said, I still wouldn’t be surprised to see them make a run at the wild card. They have tons of talent on the roster and the AL sucks.)

Injuries and they played over their heads in 2025. 

Key injuries, not meeting expectations and underperforming players. Regression to the mean

They sold their soul to Liz Hurley for a World Series, got bedazzled, and now its time to pay. Never trust a sultry devil in a leathersuit.

A lot of people here with good technical explanations. I think spiritually it’s just impossible to bounce back after blowing the greatest World Series ever, and especially the greatest game 7 ever in such a dramatic fashion. I think that takes time to heal. I never bought the “2015 Royals” comparison because what Toronto went through in 25 was just by orders of magnitude much worse. Just need some time to heal past that.

Thanks for lauer he’s been very good for us since the blue jays DFA him

Exhibit A of why it’s so important to seal the deal when you have a chance. Who knows when they’ll return.

They are who they were before they caught magic last May.

Lifelong Blue Jays fan here. Last year was an extreme over performance. Everything went right. This year they have reverted to the 2024 team. We really blew a golden opportunity to steal a ring.

Did Bo Bichette walking in free agency play a role in this?

Yeah. It was definitely his loss that set them back.

• I mean, he moved over to the Mets and look how good they are doing this year!

The red sox stole our Aura.

Legit, that’s the aura we had in 2025. It’s not just a winning streak…

It’s obviously easy to say in hindsight, but everyone just sort of forgets how much this team scuffled through the first part of last season (that series against the Yankees at the start of July was where they really flipped the switch).

Add in a guy like Springer having a resurgence after a couple of seasons of diminishing returns, the loss of Bichette, a host of injuries, as well as the turn around in one run games (27-20 last season, 12-17 this season) and it’s not really that surprising.

Lots of hype coming into the season, but I think most reasonable fans knew that last playoff was due to all the stars aligning at the right time: their superstar went supernova, their kid pitcher turned into Randy, heck even Gimenez was getting clutch hits. Typically you won a chip in a perfect storm like that (Nats, Rangers are recent examples), but the Jays lost their juju at the last moment.

Like in the NBA, it’s really rare for a contender to suddenly fall off after less than a year.

Is it?

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1ftarpo/both_teams_from_last_years_nba_finals_missed_the/

Common in the NFL too.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/47358213/nfl-teams-win-super-bowl-miss-playoffs-next-year

They had crap injury luck off the bat, and just fell behind the 8 ball.

Their role players who shined last year are still shining, the problem is their stars dissapeared.

Springer was a top 3 hitter in the AL last year, he’s been straight ass this year.

Vlad carried the team in the playoffs, and has been a below 100wrc+ hitter this year.

Kirk was injured for most of the year, and hasn’t looked like himself since being back

They had career seasons out of literally everyone on that roster

It’s not that rare in the NBA, the Kings made the playoffs the light the beam year then fell off a cliff. The Mavs made the finals then became a lottery team. In the NFL the Commanders made the NFC championship game then missed the playoffs. It happens in all sports

Really the opposite of last season. Last year everything went right.

Players had really good years.

They came from behind late in games to win a lot.

At the start of this season we lost Ponce, Scherzer has not made it back, Gausman is hit and miss, and other starters have been hurt. Seemed like every other day another starter went down.

Kirk, Barger, Varsho, are hurt. Springer is older, Vladdy seems hurt, Bo’s bat is gone, etc and they can’t put some hits together to drive in runs at all.

The team chemistry last year was really fun. They don’t seem to be having fun this year.

Last year was magical, and it’s really really hard to replicate everything going your way.

Seriously that’s about it.

Blue jays lucked out by not getting Kyle Tucker, Imagine him on your team the way he has been underperforming sheesh.

The Blue Jays were playing out of their minds at the end of the season. Every single player regressed back to normal or worse and George Springer is a bitch.

Last year they got hot on a postseason run. A lot of it is regression to the mean. It’s really hard for most teams to stay at a really high level (unless you’re the Dodgers)

I don’t know but it depresses the hell out of me.

Blue Jays got extremely lucky last year. Surprisingly lucky. All the players had some of their best seasons ever. This is why it sucked so much losing the WS….coming so close and falling short is devastating because it’s extremely hard to make it to the WS and the Blue Jays probably won’t be there for many years. Look at our lineup…it is not scary compared to other teams. Injuries didn’t help this year either. But overall. We had a lucky year in 2025.

Injuries happened

A deep run can really drain even the best of teams.

• Offense. In 2025, they were 2nd in fWAR, 4th in runs, lead the league in average and on base. In 2026, they are 16th in average and everything else is bottom 5 in the league.
  
• They were due to regress but not regress this much. George Springer is 36 years old and last year was a final wind and those last one year. The outfield of Lukes, Varsho, and who ever is healthy is awful. Clement is fine but he’s still a league average bat and is the 2nd or 3rd best hitter on the team. Kirk has been hurt but even after a month, he is a .594 OPS hitter. A lot of it is Vlad Jr. Okamoto is having a great year but he was seen as a supporting piece, not someone to carry a lineup. He is doing well but he is not Murakami.
• Gausman under the hood should be doing better but he is showing age.
  
• Yesavage is showing the innings he threw last year and is struggling to stay on the field and look consistent. He needs to relax and take his time. Whatever happened to Brandon Pfaadt? There is a downside of young pitchers in the postseason. The postseason is not a major league season.
• Bieber looks like the injuries have hit him.
  
• A lot of the depth pitching hasn’t done well or have been hurt. Cody Ponce might have been what Foster Griffin is for the Nationals but we’ll never know.
  
• The bullpen can still be leaky but the team doesn’t have a lead in the late innings as much anymore.
  

The offense is the main reason followed by the injuries. It is not the manager if they never have a lead.

Losing Bo and Don Mattingly already sunk the team before the season began. You lost the heart of the team in Bo and Don a guy every single player could come to at any time. Losing Bassit hurt a lot too.

Sometimes you gotta chalk it up to baseball being weird sometimes

Stars gotta star.  Springer, Jr, and Kirk all taking massive dumps in the bed. Santander, Berrios and Barger pulled a  DB Cooper.  Gausman and Max are old. Manager is no Cito.  Baseball gods hate us.

3 of the players who should be big parts in the top 5 are having career worst seasons.  It’s a big fall off in offense from that.

We also have significant injuries to 2 more that havent or barely played.

So basically we have ~5 significant offensive pieces not firing or replacements.

Lots of comments here already but I’d like to add losing Bo Bichette I think is way bigger than anyone could’ve predicted. Him and Vladdy were buddies maybe that’s got something to do with Vlad’s brutal year. Also Bo was what top 2 in hits league wide last year? Okomoto’s production helps a bit but losing Vlad’s production and a top 2 hitter that hurts.

At the start of the year there were some freak injuries. Some of those injuries never healed or were replaced by new ones.

Throw in Vlad and George not hitting

I’m also tempted to DFA Springer after the deadline if you can’t trade him. I’d rather lose with youth and give those ABs to the next generation.

Last year was the exception. So much of the team overperformed previous seasons or had career years and there was always going to be regression after a year like that.

Betwen regression, injuries and the loss of Bichette, our offence has fallen back to 2023-24 levels. Pitching injuries decimated us, and now everyone is so frustrated that it has snowballed.

It’s actually insane to watch. And I’m dumb enough to pay good money to fly across the country to watch it.

Over performed last year

Under performing this year

They got stupid hot in the playoffs. Springer turned into his prime again. Fucking Gimenez won us a game single handedly. Scherzer competing like the psychopath he is. Barger, Ernie coming out of nowhere. Bo DHing on 1 leg hitting nukes. Vladdy being everything he’s been hyped up to be

This year they started hurt. Stayed hurt. Vladdy has completely lost his swing. They can’t play defense. The bullpen issues have continued, even tho they are also hurt.

I didn’t expect a division win this season. Thought we’d be comfortably a wild card team tho with a fighting chance at some series wins like last year

The Jays had 8 position players last year who had at least 2 fWAR. Two of those guys are gone but have been replaced by similar contributions (Bo Bichette by Kazuma Okamoto, Tyler Heineman by Brandon Valenzuela). Ernie Clement is having another good season - better than last year offensively, although his defense seems to have fallen off.

That leaves Addison Barger, Daulton Varsho, Vlad Jr., Alejandro Kirk, and George Springer, who combined for 18.2 fWAR last year. So far this year those five have combined for just 2.5 fWAR.

2.5 fWAR over 101 games is a 4-win pace over 162, so they’re set to lose about 14 wins from last year just from those five guys.

Depression in a post :( I miss the prime Jays

Blame the 2025 blue jays for not winning the World Series. They literally beat the dodgers in 5 games but only won 3.

Haven’t recovered from the game 7 loss in the World Series

They pissed off the baseball gods in game 7 of the WS last year. That’s usually a 7 year curse.

Not hitting HRs.

The Jays were not a great team last year until they got hot, crushing HRs when they needed it.

They were a good team, but like many “just good” teams that make amazing playoff runs, they got extremely hot at the right time and rode the momentum all the way to within an inch of a World Series.

Between home runs, Trey Yesavage coming out of nowhere to be lights out in the playoffs, overall good pitching down the stretch (minus Hoffman), it really all came together for them.

It’s always going to be tough for a team that’s not full of all-stars like the Dodgers or Yankees to consistently be up there after a season like that, but losing a key player in Bichette was rough. Even with Kaz stepping in for him, I think it just psychologically affected the other players like Vladdy to not have him in the lineup anymore.

That, combined with bad injury luck this year and all of a sudden the team is struggling heavily.

There’s still time for them to get hot like last year, but the vibe doesn’t seem to be there this year.

they have lost more games then they won

Red Sox went from laughing stock (2012 under my favorite manager in their history, certified genius Bobby Valentine) to a World Series Title* to last place in the division under an inept clown.

The point? Sometimes, year-to-year, things fluctuate. Sometimes they fluctuate wildly. The Red Sox brought mostly the same team back in 2014 as the one that managed to win the World Series* in 2013. But that’s also part of the problem. They brought mostly the same team back. They brought back a band of misfits and outcasts like Mike Napoli and Jonny Gomes. Regression was inevitable.

made a deal with the devil last year

Seems like a AAA calibre roster this year

Baseball is much more random and so it is unlike the NBA where you can have a star carry the team.

Their pitching is bad and their stars aren’t playing like stars. Springer’s last year looks like a dead cat bounce now.

We abandoned the style of baseball that brought us success.

In 2025, we weren’t the kind of team that could beat you by HRs. We beat teams by playing small ball combined with impeccable defence. The mantra was “get the guy behind you to the plate”. Some of our biggest rallies came when we had 2 out, and it was honestly amazing to watch. We could stage comebacks because we played a system that prioritized shutdown defence and getting on base any way you can. Walks and singles were productive, but we also had the timely hitting to get runners in. Sure, there were HRs, but a lot of it was just being able to hit a clutch single or a good double to keep the rally going.

This year, it’s the complete opposite. Everyone has talked about hitting falling off but it’s not even that guys aren’t hitting HRs: plate discipline has just completely vanished. Every game, we swing at crap. If a pitcher can get us chasing, it’ll be the quickest innings of their life. Timing is also off, so we’re popping up/grounding out/fouling off pitches that in theory, we should be capitalizing on. I think at this point everyone is trying to force it or be “the guy”. These players aren’t selfish, and they want to contribute. However, I think it’s become more of a “I need to do something now” mindset versus last year’s “how can I get the guy behind me to the plate”.

All this is paired with a dramatic decrease in defence and general fundamentals. Guys who were solid last season are making uncharacteristic errors, and it’s costed us. Our fundamentals have also become insanely sloppy: errant throws, lack of communication, giving up on catchable foul balls, not running it out, a complete loss in ability to bunt.

We can’t get runs in, and we also can’t shut down the opposing team because our errors are allowing them to advance or score. Add that to everything else that’s been mentioned here, and it’s been a mess of a season.

There are many concrete reasons why this team is bad, but I feel the need to point out for very casual fans that in the big picture, this just isn’t as unprecedented as it is in other sports like the NBA. For a number of reasons, baseball ends up with more year-to-year variance in both luck and skill, and a team’s fortunes can look wildly different from one season to the next.

The 2023 Blue Jays made the playoffs for the second year in a row, then in 2024 they finished last in the division. Then in 2025 they were the best team in the American League. In 2026, they suck. There are lots of teams I can think of from this century alone that went from last place in their division to first place, or back again.

I won’t get into all the reasons this can happen, as that would be a much longer post. This is just to say for those who aren’t familiar with baseball that while this is not necessarily a regular path for a baseball team to follow, it is not a historic collapse either.

Last year was a fluke run. They were even sellers at last years deadline. Not surprised.

Vladdy was in the first year of his massive extension.

Schneider refuses to move the lineup around.

Atkins and Shapiro in years leading up to the WS run had bad years. It’s extremely lucky for those 3 in management the team played well in their contract years.

Overall they seem to be able to put a team together but actively managing it leaves a lot to be desired.

We took some big risks on injury prone guys, and I wish we stopped with that acting like it’s a reclamation project. Injury prone is injury prone. Reclamation is for people who need their form tweaked, a change of scenery etc. Actually coached.

Aside from that, injuries as said in other posts. Barger being hurt, Santander is a bust. No Bo, but who knows if he slumps like how he is now if he stayed, personally I think so. Not a fan of players playing in out of contract years. Somehow everyone always has career highs when their pay cheque is on the line..seen it time and time again across the league.

Everyone is playing bad. Vladdy is visible frustrated, Clement is dropping tablets after re-watching his errors.

We shall see how next year goes. The team seems to be not serious enough for some, and too serious for others.

Baseball is the cruelest of all sports.

All aspects of their game are weaker than last year. Pitching, defense and hitting are noticeably weak this year

they all decided to roll a nat 1 at the same time

Last year Springer and Vlad were intimidating batters working counts. Everyone was hitting and getting on base. There was no reprieve for a pitcher. This year the data analyzed shows “Just dont throw Vlad a fastball, breaking stuff only.” and “Springers bat speed cant keep up to the higher velocity. Pepper him with fastballs”. being able to effectively nullify those guys leads to their current desperation to swing and miss. Last years strategy to wait for your pitch is a game of chicken. Pitching strategies are winning this game of chicken.

Hitting each other around can only be effective with higher averages. Toggling that 1-2 out difference in a lineup each inning makes a huge difference over the course of the game and the season. I assume the overtly high analysis of a World Series team is partly why Okamoto is an anomaly this season. He wasnt targeted/analyzed to death and he isnt desperately trying to keep that momentum going leading to frustration. Just doing his thing.

Outside of performance and injuries, their fielding has been atrocious and offensive approach has done a 180 from last year. Basically their two biggest team strengths are bonafide weaknesses.

I guess it’s just really been a season from hell.

Injuries are the easiest thing to blame the misfortunes on. There’s players who played above their worth last season, one of the best defensive team in the league last year to this shit show. Vladdy being the biggest let down of this team, even with is bat alone they would be 500 at least . Guys getting too old , springer , max , Corbin.. Hoffman not being able to mentally be a closer anymore, pitching staff underperforming. Bo is not blowing anyone away in NY , and Okamoto as been a good replacement overall . Maybe it was just a Cinderella story, everyone was vibing at the same time and the power of friendship was just to much. You gotta remember all the comeback wins they had and never giving up . Now they get behind in the first inning and it’s almost over. Well it was a good run , give it a week , then they need to be sellers and reset .

Lost the Mandate of Heaven and were usurped by a newer, more dynamic noble house (the Rays)

Lost the Mandate of Heaven and were usurped by a newer, more dynamic noble house (the Rays)

Outside of Okamoto (who can be streaky), the team has absolutely no power this season. Their OPS ranks dead last (.683) in the MLB, whereas they ranked 3rd (.760) in 2025. And forget even home runs, this team is in the bottom for RISP, extra base hits and many other stats. Additionally, their biggest stars have either been underperforming or injured (Outside of Clement, who has been their best hitter this season)

Their starting pitching has been decimated with injuries, and this has also led to their bullpen being heavily overworked now. I wouldn’t put this on their front office, they made good moves in the offseason, but this team clearly isn’t working. Them not signing Bo Bichette worked in their favour (Bichette has been struggling, Okamoto signing has been great), but literally everything that could go wrong has gone wrong this season.

We’re most likely looking at a retool for the Blue Jays, and with the threat of a 2027 lockout or a delay in the start of a season, it definitely makes sense for the Jays to sell at the deadline.

They had every single player up and down the roster have a career year last year and then go sicko mode in the playoffs, that’s just simply something that is not repeatable. Plus they’ve had a decent amount of injuries this year on top of the inevitable regression.

As a (now former) Dallas Mavericks fan, your NBA comparison really smarts. 2024 Western Conference champions to lottery pick in one season

Thats toronto sports baby!

A whole mix of affairs I think. For one last year we were doing so-so till about halfway through the season and guys figured things out.. couldve contributed to a false security of sorts motivation wise. 

Secondly this is more subjective but we gave out a lot of freebies early season when either Hoffman or Little pitched and killed our momentum with those late close wins turning into losses. Even later in the season i think we won a few in a row and were up on a team and prob Hoff came in, blew the game, tough for a team to keep the motivation up with giveaways after youve already set the table for the win. Not really Hoffs fault, just shoulda been put in the 7th inning earlier in the season and even nowadays, should not be put in high leverage situations in general. Good for a few outs just dont let him be in pressure moments. 

Thirdly the lack of Bo is evident. Led the league in hits pre injury, helped get our guys home. Esp with Vladdy struggling to hit homers, another guy to clean things up would be huge. Not hitting as well this year but with familiarity i think hed hit better too. 

Fourth its injuries, Santander no show, was waiting on pitchers coming back, Kirk/Springer, huge missing Barger too. 

Lastly its Vladdy. Started the season hitting fine but homers were down, now homers still down but hes hitting more mediocre. Weirdly i think Bo being here would help Vlad.. another big name on the team, came up together, prob some healthy competitiveness between them. 

clubhouse vibes are unquantifiable. there was a lot of good juju in that dugout last year

Last year was just a lightning in a bottle type year. Now we are seeing who they are, which is more in line with expectations we had for them going into last year (if we took bichette off last years team)

The law of averages from last year playoffs, and injuries. We were never World Series good, just had 6+ dudes playing out of their minds.

Cash beating us up with small ball. Blue Jays Manager needs to gets runs going by same strategy We did small ball to start early last season and that built confidence by the end of the season we were hitting. This year we are complacent Need to score runs in somehow when team not hitting.

Its crazy how average (below average?) VG jr has been this season.

Is there expectation for a big turnaround for the rest of the season for him? Does he typically perform like this before the ASG break? Does he have an underlying injury he is playing through?

It doesn’t matter whose name is on the back of the jersey. If it says “Toronto” on the front, the sport gods will be cruel.

So many injuries right from the start. I firmly believe they never found a groove. The injuries were disastrous. I honestly don’t believe they should be sellers at the deadline. I am not saying run it all the way back, but I don’t think they should go into rebuild mode. It’s a bad season. And no, making the World Series was not luck.

I watched every regular season game last year and 25% of their games this year. I would say besides the obvious injuries & vladdy underperforming, it would be timely hitting.
Watching last year was one of the best fan experiences ever. They were in every game, they battled back. You could never could them out. When they really needed a hit or good luck they got it most of the time. This year has been the complete opposite. I think it has something to do with the WS last year. The ball getting jammed into the wall might be the start of a curse.

They were shit in 2024 too. Last year was the outlier, tbh.

I was putting money on TOR, that will do it

When Bieber didn’t opt out of his contract, I knew he was cooked.

The offence was really good last year, they were disciplined at the plate, hit for average and had a “two swing approach”. This year the team is much less disciplined at the plate and chase balls they shouldn’t. They are terrible with runners in scoring position and don’t hit for extra bases. This can be shored up with a batting coach, getting the boys on the same level.

We have seen some changes in the line up, Ernie going up to lead off and Springer down to clean up makes sense. Moving Vladdy lower makes a of sense, but I don’t know if Schneider will ever move Vladdy of top 4.

Pitching, all of our starters have been on the IL, except for Gausman. He’s been having a really bad time lately and I’m starting to wonder if it might be a prep or pitching coaching thing. Eric Lauer went from 1-5 with an ERA over 6, to the Dodgers with an ERA over 3 and hasn’t lost a game yet.

Famously Hoffman struggles in high pressure situations and he needs to never be used in them again.

They were pretenders, last year was a fluke to ensure we (Toronto) will suck for a while now as same bad GM, same bad coach we will have for a WHILE cause Toronto is not allowed to have nice things in baseball (or hockey) this millennium… :(