Why LeBron’s decision has taken so long, and when it will be made - proven by the lunar cycle
Each time LeBron has changed teams, the moon phase has been in a different state.
The original Decision was made July 8, 2010, under a waning crescent at just 13% illumination and three days prior to the new moon.
LeBron’s return to Cleveland was announced July 11, 2014, when the moon was nearly full - specifically, waxing gibbous with 99% illumination, one day to full moon.
Then, the move to LA became public on July 1, 2018, during a waning gibbous at 90% illumination, three days after the full moon.
To recap, that’s low illumination waning crescent, high illumination waxing gibbous, and high illumination waning gibbous. In order to follow the pattern, this next decision must be during a low-illumination waxing crescent. The moon was full when free agency negotiations started on June 30th, which meant that LeBron needed to wait half the lunar cycle.
However, the new moon was last night, which means we are finally into the waxing crescent! The end of this phase will be marked by the first quarter on July 21st; however, to be considered low illumination, I think an announcement would come earlier in that window, as all previous decisions have come within three days of a new or full moon.
Therefore, the most likely decision days are:
By the strictest definition of the pattern, it should be today, as the pattern has been three days before new moon, one day before the full moon, three days after the full moon, and would then be fulfilled by one day after the new moon. However, that piece of it doesn’t feel as strong. If LeBron does not sign before next Tuesday, then this will drag on until after the next new moon on August 12th, or even the next one on September 11th.
One final note - each decision has taken place under a different moon sign: Gemini, Capricorn, and Aquarius. The current waxing crescent phase and the next ones in August and September contain only different signs - Leo, Libra, Scorpio, and possibly Sagittarius (if it’s the very end of the phase in September). There’s no particular pattern that stands out here, though, which makes sense because Zodiac signs are hogwash, and we should be focused instead on the predictive powers channeled by the moon.