It’s multifaceted. A max contract cap has always meant that top 5 guys are actually even more valuable (impact beyond max), some guys are fairly paid, and some get a max and probably dont deserve it (jaylen for example). Then you factor in the years of service where 10+ is the highest paid, but generally guys are actually backsliding in that contract.

For years you could overpay on bird rights etc and while expensive you could argue it didnt ruin your team, but now with the new CBA - you cannot have these on the books. Especially with injuries to soft tissue / availability issues being up and with the depth of the teams - its better to have no weak link than 1 guy with a glaring weakness.

We’re just starting this moneyball era now

People keep saying this, but it was a problem even going back to Kobe in like 2011, CP3 late Clippers into Houston days, etc.

It makes no sense than Jaylen and Jayson were making 48% of the cap in 2024 and making 70% now. The ramp up of these contracts into and then beyond their primes is way too much.

Now call this crazy, but I think we’ll see more teams swinging for 1-2 year rentals down the road. If this shit keeps going on, you might as well sell the guy the dream that if he balls out on a mercenary rental year - he’d be solid for a FAT payday. Less commitment, but it gives guys a solid feeler that even if they ask our later on, they can still have a shot at an open window a la Kawhi on the Raptors.

The idea that any 1 player is worth 30-35% of what you can spend is insane when you need at least 6 good players to build a championship team. Yes you get some artificially low salaries from rookies, but that’s banking on a lot considering you need draft picks and you need to draft well and they need to fit the timeline to win while on the rookie salary.

I do think there will be some equilibrium where teams understand they just need to build a team that is better than all the other teams, not some all time team. Which would mean being OK with letting go of big names who are expensive even if it makes the team worse for flexibility.

If anything, I think the recent string of champions already reflects this. We went from GMs trying to build teams in the LeBron Heat/Cavs and Warriors with the mindset (better talent = better team) to all these other teams which don’t have the top end or total talent those teams had (we’ll sacrifice talent or money because we don’t need to be the best, just better than the meta).

It’s just no GM has tried to really implement the strategy with full force yet because every title winner or contender seems to want to re-sign all their aging contributors to contracts that look awful (Middleton, Holiday, Murray, Gordon, etc.)

Yep, its better to only have a team of good players at fair value than a team of 2 elite players on slightly above market value atp and the rest filled with whatever leftover you can afford.

You need to have 6 good players to win a cheap. Any one way player to fill some role is a waste of roster space if they arent a vet min for anyone contending. It aint 2016 anymore. You wouldnt even use MLE on then.

This was the dark matter in the Luka trade also - Mavs ownership were not about to pay him the supermax under any circumstances. Especially if they also saw him as frequently injured and unlikely to change that. Doesn’t excuse the crap return they got for him but it explains some of what happened.

(But still, Nico delenda est)

Brown can’t dribble or playmake. He’s always a negative asset

Best part is Jaylen Brown helped negotiate this cba, he is a vice president for the player’s association

Such a smart guy

That 70 million guy has to be one of the top in the league is the deal. If they’re curry then it’s easier to build around. Or wemby or something. Other than that you have a ton of problems.

He pays Goldsberry!

I don’t think they need to.

The goal of podcasts is to get clicks. Tell the fans what they want to hear.

And clearly, fans love hearing that Jaylen Brown was the #6 most valuable player in the NBA.

Media can keep repeating that, since they have no incentive to be correct (unlike front offices)

Let House run the analytics and let’s see what happens

Edit: Cousin Sal for the NFL analytics too

They already have Lowe and Goldsberry. Mahoney is analytics-friendly too.

Between this and LeDecision 2 this sub is gonna be so shitty. Not that it isn’t already

Days? Every game next season is going to relitigate this trade

Fr. People are shitting on him now, but much of the sub would’ve agreed with that take when he posted it.

This sub is launching a rebellion against math in the name of Jaylen Brown lol

Tbh I’m whipping it out with some reluctance by now. I still do it, but the chafing gets annoying

I come for entertainment, not knowledge. Schadenfreude is undefeated.

r/nba commenting within an hour of posting like they’re above slop posts somehow

I mean I’m fine with the Bill Simmons ones. If you’re gonna be an insufferable homer, be ready to get shit when you’re wrong

This is literally what he said basically lol

Who is saying that?

Although funnily enough, everything in the two days later part of your post are things people would’ve been saying as little as a month ago.

I mean you would have to think that if the trade is a correct assessment of his value and that the rankings “missed” true value.

But the simpler explanation is just that the Celtics blew it.

I think he’s just rubbing salt in Bill’s wounds 

Yes this was a good trade for the celtics. Sixers end of this trade is terrible

Also has Randle in the same tier as KD, Kawhi, and OG 💀 

I am not gonna read the list or think about it too hard but his back injury is a solid red flag and you’re gonna have to quickly pay him more next off-season.

Win a playoff series and that would probably change.

Deni gets a lot of unwarranted hate for obvious reasons

No I think OP is actually saying it was a good trade, or at least a perfectly equal trade that correctly reflects Jalen Brown’s value. I think you have to believe that for the premise of this post to work.

I’m willing to let it play out. I don’t have to prove I’m smarter than everybody else.

Sounds like you need a Billinoscopy

Yeah, when you see a post like this downvote and block the poster.

Yeah, I’m pretty sure AI and advanced stats could easily outperform the average media member in assessing talent and trade value.

Remember, Simmons is one of the better media members, he at least had the decency to put Jaylen Brown #5 in MVP voting. Guys like Stephen A. Smith and Kendrick Perkins had Jaylen top 3.

Fans and some media really don’t understand that most of these teams have crazy data we have no idea about

Yes, some bad teams will make some bad decisions sometimes

But if the entire league didn’t think it was worth trying to get JB for his price, do we really think the entire NBA is wrong lol?

dude wears Celtics goggles, creams over anything green

Is MPJ’s contract really considered a “solid asset”? Is it just because his contract is expiring?

Saying four draft picks makes it sound like it’s 4 first round picks. It’s 2 firsts and 2 seconds.

So they’re not paying Paul George $50 million per for the next 2 years?

Keep in mind, most ppl think for Philly to even get off the PG contract, they’d have to trade a first round pick. That’s what makes it so bad. One of those first round picks is top 8 protected, meaning it could turn into a pick swap, the other’s in 2031. So one first round pick could possibly be a pick swap or a later pick, the other is cancelled out by what it would’ve cost to dump that contract.

Yeah it’s the Celtics front office that has tried to convince everyone Brown sucks. Totally not the 29 other front offices who decided his trade value for them.

if this were true, boston would have walked away with more than paul george and a few picks.

When they say negative, they probably mean negative value relative to contract. Not that he’s actually making a team worse.