[Noh] My salary model has Trae Young at \(115.1 million in value over the next four years, assuming an average of 70 games played / 34 mpg. That makes his \)212 million contract underwater by $97 million. (link to model in post)
It’s an overpay and a Wizards staple, but god damn am I so tired of everybody thinking they’re Moneyball.
Why don’t teams just pay really good players low salaries? Are they stupid?
Especially teams that are historically bad. You won’t be winning much so you dont deserve to be paid much either. Why dont players understand this. Are they stupid?
Players get 51% of revenue regardless so money has to be given to players though Trae should take less and everyone else could make more
Just offer Jokic $7.25 an hour and hit him with the puppy eyes when he gets confused/angry
Tell him he can have off days with his horses
i prefer the term “nikki eyes” now :C
$7.25/hour and they build a horse stable inside the stadium.
Dundon is doing this rn with the blazers
Is Trae Young a really good player or a pretty good player? Cause paying a fringe all-star like he’s elite is not gonna cut it in this era.
Wizards don’t think they’re competing for a title this year, they just trying to put a watchable product on the floor for their fan base.
This is the next four years, all of which will include their eventual 1OA pick and some of which might involve AD’s last productive years. They have a real chance to do something exciting and massively overpaying Trae Young is not gonna help that
Their 1 overall will be 23 or 24 at the end of this contract, probably with some playoff experience.
Then you can put the Trae Young expiring with some picks or whatever and go try and get an all-star to pair with your 1 overall at that point.
Putting a decent roster around the pick is only going to help their development.
The problem is that his contract now expires the year that 1OA will have a huge cap hold. Even if they just reduced it by 1 year, it would allow them to understand their team more and have more cap flexibility to build around them.
Okay Steve Ballmer
Why don’t teams just pay really good players low salaries?
All NBA player Jalen Johnson locked in at 30 million per year. 😎
Pick an analyst/advanced stat you like and they’ll say that this is an overpay of comical proportions.
Sports are entertainment. Being able to watch a good PG every night on a team who hasn’t had a good one in 10 years can’t be measured with advanced stats.
Trae will also be valuable for the Wizards young player development with how good a facilitator he is
Finally, as others have mentioned, this doesn’t hurt the Wizards cap-wise
Great comment. I watch a lot of Wizards games and I’m a fan of Trae’s game so this is great news. I also think he pairs VERY well with AD and I’m just high on the Wizards in general
Analysts think every guard that’s outside their rookie contract is an overpay due to the nature of efficiency numbers due to how efficiency numbers work in their models.
Trae Young shoots 18 times at 44% from the field??? Think of how good it would be if we gave all those shots to Walker Kessler at 60% instead!
The Mavs literally refused to pay Brunson peanuts while he was coming off the bench shooting 50⁄40.
lol “I also don’t know how analytics work but I’m gonna criticize it like I do”
Okay, refute their point instead of being a smartass.
There is no analyst or model in the world in 2026 that is actually using raw FG% as a measure of efficiency
My take is who cares it’s a 4 year deal. AJ is 19 in 4 years he’ll be 23 it’s not ruining their window at all
Edit for bonus points everyone says FA is dead in 3 years he’s expiring to match for an all star
Yeah, they’re basically paying Trae during the period of time where they don’t need to pay anyone else. They wanted the skillset that he offers; they haven’t had a player that can both dribble and pass for years now and he’ll help to take some of the pressure off the other young guys.
Theyll need to pay george and sarr massive contracts with Trae on the books
They’ll be okay FA is dead
Idk the new CBA making a de facto hard cap for most teams we might start seeing some decent players hit FA
Avdija?
This. You build around Sarr and Dybantsa for the long term. But in the short term, why not try to win? Set a good winning culture for the young guys and have some fun. This team has sucked for almost a decade now.
Trae has massive flaws but he is a great PG on offense which is key to developing young talent. Paying Trae also let’s him buy in on elevating the young guys. It also helps them finish outside the bottom 3 and maximize their lottery odds – and hitting in the lottery more than pays for Trae’s contract.
Not everyone’s goal is to win a championship this season or next wizards clearly wanna be in the 6-10 range next season
I think this is actually why the fox deal isn’t too big of a problem for the spurs – they have a ton of rookie deals, who cares if they have an overpriced vet
I don’t hate it, although it does make the contract harder to trade later (but again, these are easier to trade when there is only a year or two left, in the future)
I think that was the sours thought process too but they’re kind of too good for that in a way now. It doesn’t hurt to let it play out still but if they could change anything I imagine they would swap Fox out for a real starting 4.
You have to overpay as a franchise who has struggled to be competitive in order to change the culture.
Great movie, but the HUGE thing it left out was the team already had some absolutely incredible pitchers to keep them competitive while they played “moneyball”.
Just an ad for another analytics model for people who don’t watch a lot basketball but want to talk like they do
Its driving me nuts. I dont even like Trae Young like that……but the human element of these transactions is totally unaccounted for.
The salary cap and all its convolutions means that roster construction is about 90% moneyball.
Good thing small guards age well
Jalen Brunson nods
Brunson gonna get the biggest bag ever on his next extension
I don’t care how much of an albatross his contract becomes. Give him every penny and make sure we don’t do the shit we did with Ewing and trade him in the twilight of his career. That man better stay a Knick til his legs fall off, I don’t care what it costs
I never want to see a Jalen version of Pat in a fucking Orlando Magic jersey.
Are you guys talking about Sonics legend Patrick Ewing?
Guaranteed knicks fans wil turn on him in 3 years tops. Same thing happened with lebron
The difference is the Lakers are accustomed to success. Brunson is the first great Knicks point guard since Clyde. He brought us the first title in 53 years compared to just a 10 year gap between Lakers titles.
Also Lebron winning them 1 title is a small part of his larger legacy with 3 other rings. Between the expectations on him for his previous accomplishments and the far higher standard of winning that the Lakers franchise has its just a completely and totally different conversation
One ring in LA is nothing. People talking about building him a statue are delusional.
We are not even remotely in the same mindset as fanbases
LeBron is not on the level of laker royalty that Brunson just attained. This more like when we gave old ass Kobe a full bag and I still 100% stand by that decision.
You don’t know anything so keep them western comments to yourself.
The Knicks still praise Carmelo and he didn’t take them nearly as far as Jalen has casual.
Brunson bet on himself and hit the jackpot.
Tbf he was down for a $55 million 4 yr contract but Mavs turned it down lol
its wild
Crazy it’s not the worst decision they have made in the last 5 years.
If the Mavs didn’t get lucky and win the Flagg lottery I don’t know how their fans would be alive right now
Yeah they may be the worst FO in the league and the bar is below the earths magma core
That never happened tbf
In the 3+ years Ive gotten in this argument as a mavs fan, not a single media source has ever corroborated this claim. Every single article talking about it refers back to the original claim.
Which was made by…
Rick Brunson. In an SI hit piece that got released two days after Brunson had his national breakout games against the Jazz
But that’s the power of good PR. This “fact” gets repeated in every thread about Brunson. It would be like repeating “Ballmer was deceived” in every thread about Aspiration.
He did the opposite of bet on himself actually. He could have waited a year but opted to get the smaller sooner contract incase of injury and other things.
Lol, Brunson will be eligible for the 10 year veteran supermax on his next contract which brings him from 30 to 35% of the teams cap which will be significantly bigger than what it was when he signed his last contract. The plan all along was to get this much bigger bag than what could have been available. The god-son of the team president who happened to be an ex-agent doesn’t leave money on the table.
lmao thank you im so sick of every post being like “brunson took a paycut to ensure he had a complete roster, what a great teammate!”
Nah fam him and Leon Rose/Rick Brunson have been playing the long game to ensure he gets the biggest contract possible next time
Actually by taking the extension early he didn’t bet on himself…
Should go to jail for insider trading tbh
He could lose both his legs and he’d still get a 2014 Kobe contract
I mean lol is there any question whatsoever that the Knicks will sign him to the SuperMax? He might even be worth it but that’s beside the point, I think it was basically assumed that that was what would happen when he signed his other max a year early.
His agent is his GM’s son, so this is a pretty good bet.
Isiaih Thomas weeps
Brunson’s thicc at least
Brunson isn’t small. He’s a chunky guard. Trae is small.
A lot of gms might give out a lot of terrible contracts because of Brunson. Betting against small guards is still safe, JB is just that special
Its was a fun couple of weeks, back to the cellars we go, hi Kings
Oh brother, what an overreaction
I am joking but it does start giving me some concerns about our FO, if the young guys and #1 turn out to be the goods none of this matters
almost doesn’t matter, either way, he’s not really that good or productive now
even if you’re saying you get his last couple years of production for this entire deal, it’s still bad
When the contract is over he’ll be 31 and be one of the best passer in the league.
Yeah usually around year 10 their defense really starts improving
Wizards finally got off the Beal contract 3 years ago, to now have to find a way to get off the Trae contract
Their whole team is rookie contracts. Need to spend the money somehow. I’m guessing this is preempting an announcement AD is gone.
And Trae is 27, maybe I’m taking crazy pills or I’m overthinking how much the wizards need to overpay people to stick around, but I like it
People have suddenly decided that he is not good so, it’s the narrative.
They are gonna eat their words, next season.
You can disagree with the analysis but it’s not just “narrative”, he’s clearly not as effective as he once was. He’s still a good player of course, but we’re deciding if he should get max money
https://youtu.be/PAY_4qDqrYE?is=rUAqnRNkIJcX2r4R
In year 3, he’s still be getting paid less than Lauri Markkanen and De’Aaron Fox. And by that time, there will be a dozen other contracts that will raise eyebrows.
In short, everything’s an overpay because every player is overrated somehow
They don’t have to give him 4 years, that’s the main issue
Spurs screwed themselves accidentally because they started competing too early. I don’t think they thought they were going to make the finals this soon. So instead of Fox’s contract coming off the board when Wemby is entering his prime you end up with a Albatross situation where you can’t get off it to get better. This teams development is most likely going to be a lot slower and Traes contract will be an expiring when they are looking to make moves to compete for a finals.
Screwing themselves and make a final. There are like 20 teams that would screw themselves for that
You’re way too early for this take at best. Outright wrong at worst.
Too many people equate “not the perfect or most ideal” contract with “albatross” contract.
I can’t see a world where Fox’ contract ever becomes an albatross.
The problem is not the contract itself - it’s him cockblocking a starting spot for Harper who is clearly the future and needs to get into that lead guard position asap. And now the contract matters because it’s hard to get rid of him because of that.
Yeah the spurs have Wemby, castle, and Harper who have put the timeline into hyperdrive.
The wizards have Sarr, Tre Johnson, and Dybantsa.
Maybe we shouldn’t compare these two teams.
Why exactly? Who else wants Fox at that price? He’s also 28 and probably already hit his skill ceiling, so it’s not like this deal is going to look much better in the future.
Yeah it’s a bit of a good problem to have I suppose. I never would have paid Fox that much but they figured he’d be gone by the time Fox and wemby needed extensions
It depends. They still have a pick swap tomorrow, in 2028, and 2030.
By the time that 2030 pick rolls around his contract will be over and hopefully Sarr, whoever tomorrow, and whoever in 2028, and 2030 work out. He could also be a piece at some point in a three team trade as a big salary filler.
They’re not going to be good either way. Trae gives you some star power and jersey sales.
That’s what I’m thinking. Davis isnt here past the deadline feels 100% confirmed
This doesn’t mean that
I’m not sure how I see the correlation to AD. I mean, it’s fine if that happens it was always somewhat likely. But as you said, we can max Trae this year without anyone sweating.
People will talk themselves into this like they talked themselves into Beal. This deal isn’t horrible now but the out years might be really rough. At least Trae is a proven floor raiser that can drive an offense
I definitely think there is some inherent value in having a legit PG / playmaker around our developing young core.
Wish this was 3 years instead of 4. $ value is obviously too much but it won’t really be consequential in the first two years. A 3-year deal would make him an expiring in 28⁄29 instead of having that player option, so that’s the biggest thing that’s unfortunate about this.
they’re going to pump his value this next year and then trade him for CJ Mccollum
The only reason it’s not a terrible terrible overpay is because they really don’t have to pay anyone for the next few years
When you put it like that, it does make more sense.
Yeah it’s not the end of the world like some people think but I am still not the biggest fan
It’s basically the fox contract
Almost the same situation, except the Wizards also need to make a decision on Anthony Davis in the next month.
Yes this is what everyone seems to be missing, what should they be doing with that money instead? Sure it’s an overpay but it’s not like there’s a ton of great players on the market for them to chase otherwise. Do people just want them to perpetually tank and never try to construct a competitive roster?
Sarr could absolutely be worth a rookie max, especially if he goes up a level this next season. George won’t be a max, but it isn’t going to be small.
It’s still a terrible overpay, you’re just listing reasons why that isn’t catastrophic for this Wizards team. Their financial outlook doesn’t make him worth this contract
So what’s the better alternative, just letting him walk? You have to spend the money, it doesn’t prevent their team from doing anything they would have done otherwise, and keeping a guy who has averaged 29⁄9 that’s 27 years old is better than letting him walk for potentially nothing. There’s a reason most of the people here aren’t GMs.
I mean, was Brunson worth what he ended up receiving from NY after year two in DAL? Not saying I think Sarr is about to explode, but projecting extensions isn’t an exact science.
Thank you for taking the time to produce an informed opinion. Might be an overpay, but you can understand why they did it. Everyone loves to tell you how they would spend someone else’s money and how they’d do it better, smh
Good thing Wizards got the number 1 pick cause I’d be fuming if I was a Wizards fan.
Nobody else was giving Trae that contract.
Bulls or Nets would’ve, this is nothing to be too upset over, show else would be playing PG for us? Ja Morant?
Bulls wouln’t pair Trae with Giddey and lock up their cap space for the foreseeable future, especially given how much they’ve talked about SLAP
Brooklyn might’ve been willing? tbh Brooklyn letting Trae know that they’d be willing to use their cap space on him is the only way I can see how Trae got the leverage for both the AAV and the 4 seasons
edit: Brooklyn only would’ve been willing if they don’t end up drafting a guard
Spurs would gladly trade Fox for a similarly paid Trae contract (assuming less years)
This is the most recency bias take imaginable.
Trae is a much better player Fox. He has been for years.
That’s a wild take.
I understand that Fox had a bad playoffs and he probably should be benched next season in favor of Harper, but this still seems like a wild take.
No one wanted Trae at the trade deadline when he was making $49M + PO. What makes you think SA would want him at more money for more years?
I’m still confused on when and why did Fox get better then Young in the eyes of NBA.
No, we would not.
It isn’t less years tho is it? It’s pretty much the exact same contract.
We were prepared to sign an extension for 3y/$120m.
It’s not like that extra $10m per year was going to be a massive difference for us. We’ve got draft picks and MLE either way.
This is a clear overpay but it’s not a big deal.
I actually like this model because it confirms all my biases lmao. It has Brunson as being worth 53 million, Cade only being worth 46 million, and Haliburton being worth only 31 million
If haliban is only worth 30 then this model is clearly delusional lol
It’s using some kind of projection, because it says he played 70 games and 26 mpg when he played 73 games and 33 mpg in 2024-25.
Yeah all models use projections. What’s the point in modeling what a guy should have been paid last year?
The calculation is based on DARKO DPM and playing time. For other players it uses their playing time from last season, but since Haliburton missed all of last season it appears to be trying to project his minutes using an undescribed formula (since he’s never played less than 30 mpg in a season).
So yes, it partially models what a player should have been paid last year. For example, it thinks Tatum is worth $10.6m because he only played 16 games.
I’m pretty sure Haliburton has swung all the way back to being overrated again. People are thinking about his clutch shots and not his actual body of work lol
I remember Brunson put up a statline of 10 points 13 assists once in a regular season game and was getting absolutely roasted. And the whole time I was just quietly thinking “that’s like an above average Tyrese Haliburton statline”
His body of work includes never losing a playoff series he ended healthy.
Bucks fans are just salty haters at this point
The model has Paul George being worth half his contract at 65 games played lmao
Nice
models for determining contract value usually don’t do it for me but it can’t be overstated how aggresivley bad this contract is
They got so many young players on the squad with cheap contracts. Who else were they gonna get? Trae is one of the best playmakers in the league and will help AJ become a star. Everybody thinks they could be a GM lol. Time will tell.
i’d agree if this weren’t the new cba. gross overpays like this straps them in how they can spend on their own guys going forward/team building in general. people keep saying how his playmaking is needed - but his usage and inefficiency makes it harder to play with him. the hawks were better consistently with him off the court
Dude he had Dyson Daniels as his 2 what the fuck was he gonna do?😭😂 man I hope Trae balls out like crazy. AD should get some stem cells or whatever Kawhi got to stay healthy. Then this squad could make the finals. Y’all sleeping on the Wiz fr
You’re right, Trae Young’s supporting cast was so bad last season that they performed better without Trae. /s
Everyone loves to tell you how they would spend someone else’s money
I’m going to zag here and say it saves a nice salary spot for a team that wasn’t going to get any free agents over the next 3 seasons. Whether they get to use it is another story, but people often underrate how valuable it is having a single player that can soak up a salary slot that high.
AKME signing PWill to his extension
You’re an idiot if you think those 2 players are in the same stratosphere
I thought 3⁄120 was gonna be the perfect number lmao guess not
I actually think Trae Young is kind of underrated by reddit/analytics people. Dude’s crazy talented and can really work in the right environment.
But 53 million per and a player option is crazy at his age and coming off his last season.
It’s really not that crazy. The Wizards are not competing for now and have rookies that need development. Trae is a great playmaker and can help speed up that development timeline. AD while injury prone is still capable of back lining the defense and mentoring Sarr.
They had all that cap space and nobody to spend it on because their young core is cheap. What else are they going to spend it on? Buying AD and Trae for cheap is great because they are good enough to allow the Wizards to get a taste of playoff basketball.
It’s similar to what we did when we traded for Gobert. Yeah it costed a ton in picks but the playoff experience has paid dividends for everyone on the team. We easily could’ve been just another rudderless team like the Kings content with just being mediocre to bad and collecting draft picks but we instead chose to be competitive now.
Giving him 4 years at over 50 million is crazy.
Sarr, George, Johnson, Coulibaly etc will all be past their rookie contracts by that last year.
If they had done 3 years I maybe would have gotten it. But paying nearly 32 year old Trae Young almost 60 million dollars is brutal.
If the wizards have to pay all of those players big money contracts that means they’re probably really good and competing in deep playoff runs. Which would be a good problem to have when your core group would all be under 25.
What do you mean his age ? He’s 27, these are his prime years .
Meh… if Trae goes back to his form of 25⁄10 numbers he would command 50 mil from every team.
Reminder his last mostly full season he had 56% true shooting (heavily propped up by FT% as well) and no defence. Love Trae but what you’re saying is not true
Do you think the NBA teams salary model is better, or this guys?
Given how many NBA teams (including this one) tend to give out contracts that apparently everyone else can predict will be horrendous except them, I might trust this guy’s model more.
I think Trae’s agent is better than the Wizard’s model.
NBA teams give out bad contracts all the time
The Wizards are factoring in thing we aren’t. Like Young’s ability to increase ratings and ticket sales and the Wizards seeing they can’t find much better use of their money, not like FA lining up to play for them.
So both models are right in their own way. Wizards don’t have much choice in overpaying Young, but yeah we all know they overpaid.
I think the idea that just because they’re an NBA team, they’re naturally going to always make better decisions than non-team analysts would make is deeply ridiculous
I genuinely do not understand how they can pay him that much in the 2nd apron is a hellscape era that currently exists
Because their real window doesn’t start till after the contract expires so who cares if they overpay to be competitive in the meantime?
Yep and it’s important AJ gets to play with an actual playmaker to start his career so he doesn’t get his confidence crushed or develops tunnel vision.
Y’all are acting like the Wizards are in the 5th year of their championship window. All the Wizard’s contracts are cheap, they could keep AD and Trae and be under both aprons, especially with Marcus Smart’s money ending. Though, I hope they get AD the hell outta here.
I’m mostly acting like I don’t think Trae Young is that good and most of the league agrees with me lol
Shut up science bitch, your model doesn’t take into account that he does cool ‘ice trae’ celebrations after big 3s. Thats worth at least $90M.
cool story bruh
Stephen Noh is a pretty elite writer/analyst man
It’s still a lot to claim something as objective truth based on a (always possibly wrong) model that you made.
He said none of that
He’s telling you how to interpret the output of his model, not claiming it to be infallible objective truth man.
Where does he claim this is objective truth as opposed to merely stating it is the result his model gave
Thought he would get a big 3 year deal, but nowhere close to a 4/212M deal. Something like 3/130M with a Player Option.
He’s like 62% of a Jalen Brunson contract underwater on his contract and 62% of Jalen Brunson as a player
Are the Wizards the Kangz of the East?
Wizards already got young promising players and possibly AJ Dybantsa
Get the geeks outta here
I wish Trae and the wiz so much luck. Rooting for them to at least make play in next season…. for starters.
I am confused. Is Trae Young not one of the best point guards in the league? I understand his defense is abysmal but his floor raising, playmaking and his good locker room presence seems good for the contract especially if the Wizards are not in Win Now mode.
“salary model”
Dont need a fancy model to know trae is overpaid 😂
Uh oh
So glad I had a nerd to tell me it’s a bad idea to pay this much for Trae Young. Wouldn’t have known otherwise.
You needed a salary model to know it was a massive overpay? Just try watching basketball and you’d know that. 4⁄115 would be a massive overpay.
He’s getting paid because the players generate the revenues, owners can’t have it all.
Don’t forget he has a player option! So in the extreme offchance he outperforms his contract he can opt out.
Should’ve sent this to the Wizards not us
Give me $212 million dollars - Trae “Furio” Young
All I got out of this is Kalkbrenner and Diabate are worth 7x and 10x their actual salary respectively.
Is there a reason why I should know who this guy is or care about what his model says?
No disagreement that they overpaid
Why is there an Asian guy for the thumbnail LOL
Austin Reaves’ agent has to be smiling after seeing what Trae got
Free agency has turned into the who can spend the least money competition
If his model includes players on rookie scale contracts it’s probably completely fucked
Stat nerd does a stat nerd post.
So, I think I understand the logic.
San Antonio had a #1 pick and screwed themselves by overpaying for a point guard they didn’t trade much to acquire. Despite that, they won their conference and went to the NBA finals. So if Washington has a #1 pick and screw themselves by overpaying for a point guard they didn’t trade much to acquire, maybe they’ll win their conference and go to the finals too!!!
nerd.
If they wouldn’t stuck with 35-40 million it would be justified but 53 mil?
He was supposed to make 49 but now he gets a fantastic season pay bump?
This man will be making about 60 mil… you guys do recognize that right?
Lmao bro has him making Christian Braun money. I don’t think his model is based in the real world.
His model has Giannis at 27m
Cool I guess ? Who cares what this dudes formula says .
I literally don’t care what your “model” says. You cant determine worth like that.
That’s about what I was thinking. About 30 per is fine for 2-3 years with a mutual option for the 4th. This contract is just stupid and a huge overpay
Elite hating.
Where’s the calculation showing how much the owner made but wasn’t worth it cause the team sucks?
Huge difference in timing though. This is like if the Spurs had the Fox extension kick in wemby’s rookie year, MUCH better timeline wise.