2026 NBA Free Agency Contract Value BigBoard

https://basketballvalues.com/2026-nba-free-agency-contract-value-board/

AI summary of the article:

I built a FairSalary model to estimate what players should be worth based on production, advanced impact, usage, efficiency, availability, and role.

For this board, I used both the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons, then normalized the values to a projected 2026-27 salary cap.

Cap assumptions

Season	Salary cap	First apron	Second apron
2024-25	$140.6M	$178.1M	$188.9M
2025-26	$154.6M	$195.9M	$207.8M
2026-27 projected	$165.0M	$209.0M	$222.0M

For most players, the two-year FairSalary signal is weighted:

The goal is not to predict the exact contract. It is to ask: what should this player be worth?

Biggest takeaways

Austin Reaves looks like the strongest non-superstar contract case in the class. I have him as a near-max offensive starter, ideally around 5 years, $190M, with an expected range of 5 years, $200M to $220M.
Jalen Duren’s model value is massive, but the his archetype and playoff translation make me cautious about a full max. Ideal range: $37M to $41M per year.
Harden and LeBron still grade like stars, but they should be short-term contracts because of age.
Trae Young is still hard to price. His creation is elite, but he needs a specific roster build. Most likely outcome is an opt-in around $49M.
The best value pockets are club-option bigs, two-way wings, defensive guards, and short veteran deals.
Biggest overpay risks are expensive player options, one-way scoring guards, older names, and long-term money for players without secure playoff roles.

2026 free agency contract value board

Rank	Player	Ideal AAV	Expected outcome	Best value fit
1	Austin Reaves	$38M to $41M	5 years, $190M to $220M	Lakers
2	Jalen Duren	$37M to $41M	5 years, $180M to $205M	Pistons
3	James Harden	$38M to $45M	2 years, $85M to $95M	Cavaliers
4	LeBron James	$30M or less	1+1 year, around $30M annually	Lakers
5	Isaiah Hartenstein	$28M to $32M	Option or extension	Thunder
6	Trae Young	$35M to $42M	Opt in	Wizards
7	Kristaps Porzingis	$24M to $30M	Short protected deal	Warriors
8	Walker Kessler	$23M to $27M	4 years, $100M to $120M	Lakers
9	Mark Williams	$20M to $24M	4 years, $85M to $100M	Suns
10	Norman Powell	$18M to $22M	2 years, $40M to $48M	Heat
11	Tobias Harris	$16M to $20M	2 years, $36M to $44M	Pistons
12	C.J. McCollum	$14M to $18M	1 year, $18M to $22M	Hawks
13	Ayo Dosunmu	$14M to $17M	3 years, $48M to $57M	Timberwolves
14	Mitchell Robinson	Around $15M	2 years, around $35M	Knicks
15	Robert Williams III	$10M to $15M	Protected short deal	Contender
16	Tari Eason	$15M to $20M	4 years, $65M to $85M	Lakers
17	Peyton Watson	$14M to $18M	4 years, $80M to $100M	Nuggets
18	Bennedict Mathurin	$15M to $18M	4 years, $80M to $100M	Clippers
19	Anfernee Simons	$16M to $20M	3 years, $60M to $75M	Magic
20	Coby White	$18M to $22M	4 years, $80M to $96M	Hornets
21	Collin Sexton	$14M to $18M	3 years, $45M to $55M	Heat or Magic
22	John Collins	$12M to $16M	3 years, $39M to $48M	Bulls or Hornets
23	Deandre Ayton	$12M to $16M	2 years, $30M to $36M	Lakers
24	Luguentz Dort	$10M to $14M	Option or rework	Thunder
25	Quentin Grimes	$10M to $15M	3 years, $33M to $45M	Lakers
26	Dean Wade	$10M to $13M	2 years, $22M to $28M	Cavaliers
27	Luke Kennard	$8M to $12M	2 years, $18M to $24M	Lakers or Spurs
28	Kevin Huerter	$10M to $14M	2 years, $22M to $28M	Pistons
29	Rui Hachimura	$10M to $14M	2 years, $24M to $32M	Lakers
30	Nikola Vucevic	$12M to $16M	1 to 2 years	Celtics
31	Fred VanVleet	$18M to $24M	Opt in or short rework	Rockets
32	Jonathan Kuminga	$12M to $16M	Option or rework	Hawks
33	Sandro Mamukelashvili	$8M to $14M	2 years, $20M to $28M	Raptors
34	Neemias Queta	$10M to $15M if UFA	Option	Celtics
35	Day’Ron Sharpe	$8M to $12M	Option	Nets
36	Keon Ellis	$6M to $10M	2 years, $14M to $20M	Cavaliers or Lakers
37	Kelly Oubre Jr.	$6M to $10M	1 to 2 years	76ers
38	Simone Fontecchio	$7M to $10M	2 years, $14M to $20M	Heat
39	Jaxson Hayes	$6M to $10M	1 to 2 years	Lakers
40	Zach Collins	$5M to $8M	1 to 2 years	Bulls
41	Jock Landale	$5M to $8M	1 to 2 years	Hawks
42	Matisse Thybulle	$4M to $7M	1 year	Blazers or Lakers
43	Gary Payton II	$4M to $7M	1 year	Warriors
44	Jordan Goodwin	$4M to $7M	1 year	Suns
45	Collin Gillespie	$6M to $10M	1 to 2 years	Suns
46	Marcus Smart	$6M to $10M	Option or short deal	Lakers
47	Bruce Brown Jr.	$5M to $8M	1 year	Nuggets or Heat
48	Harrison Barnes	$8M to $12M	1 to 2 years	Spurs
49	Al Horford	$5M to $8M	Option or retirement	Warriors or Celtics
50	Cam Thomas	$8M to $10M	1-year prove-it	Bucks or Nets
51	Kevin Porter Jr.	$8M to $14M	Short prove-it	Bucks or Clippers
52	Gary Trent Jr.	$4M to $8M	Option or short deal	Bucks
53	Seth Curry	$4M to $6M	1 year	Warriors or Hornets
54	Tim Hardaway Jr.	$5M to $7M	1 year	Nuggets
55	Russell Westbrook	Minimum to $4M	1 year	Kings or Clippers
56	Kelly Olynyk	Minimum to $4M	1 year	Spurs
57	Andre Drummond	$3M to $5M	1 year	76ers
58	Tyus Jones	$4M to $6M	1 year	Nuggets or Lakers
59	Kyle Anderson	$4M to $7M	1 year	Wolves or Spurs
60	Khris Middleton	$5M to $9M	1 year	Mavericks or Bucks

Most interesting option decisions

Player	Option context	My read
Zach LaVine	Around $49M player option	Should opt in, not close to market value
Andrew Wiggins	Around $30.2M player option	Should opt in, useful but overpaid
Draymond Green	Around $27.7M player option	Should opt in, system value more than market value
KCP	Around $21.6M player option	Should opt in, possible buyout candidate
Fred VanVleet	Around $25M player option	Opt in or short rework
Isaiah Hartenstein	Around $28.5M club option	Pick up or extend
Jonathan Kuminga	Around $24.3M club option	Rework preferred
Neemias Queta	Around $2.7M club option	Easy pick up
Day’Ron Sharpe	Around $6.3M club option	Easy pick up

Favorite value bets

Austin Reaves below the full max
Isaiah Hartenstein around $30M
Ayo Dosunmu around $16M to $17M
Quentin Grimes around $12M to $14M
Dean Wade around $11M to $12M
Neemias Queta on his club option
Day’Ron Sharpe on his club option
Robert Williams on a protected short deal
Keon Ellis below $10M
Sandro Mamukelashvili below $14M

Biggest overpay risks

Zach LaVine at $49M
Draymond Green at $27.7M
KCP at $21.6M
Coby White above $25M per year
Anfernee Simons above $25M per year
Jonathan Kuminga at long-term option-level money

EmpressBarbiex

56 | 7 hours ago

This is the kind of OC that makes this sub great. Nice work!

Financial-Monk9400 [OP] | Lakers

24 | 7 hours ago

thank you!

Guilty_Lab_9508 | Thunder

-24 | 7 hours ago

What’s original about its? It’s literally copy and paste AI garbage.

Financial-Monk9400 [OP] | Lakers

21 | 7 hours ago

I made the full model myself, wrote the article myself and made a quick ai summary because it would be way to long for a full reddit post otherwise. But the actual model and numbers are not made by ai

barkinginthestreet

-11 | 4 hours ago

would suggest reporting, the article itself seems fine but we need to ban slop from this subreddit.

Guilty_Lab_9508 | Thunder

-9 | 4 hours ago

Well I’m being downvoted, so it appears that slop is being encouraged.

Expensive_Theme9394

20 | 7 hours ago

This is actually sick work. The big takeaway for me is just how underpaid a bunch of high end role guys are compared to the fake “stars” who eat max slots for mid impact.

Also makes it way easier to sanity check future contracts. Like if a GM gives someone 2x their FairSalary after this drops, we all get to clown them in real time 😂

Financial-Monk9400 [OP] | Lakers

1 | 7 hours ago

haha I hope that happens that would be cool 😄

SilvioMascalzone

16 | 7 hours ago

Reeves on $35-40M isn’t crazy if the Lakers add a couple of pieces. There’s still flexibility if they want to trade him next year and he continues to show he can run an offence.

The Lakers need to plan for ²⁸⁄₂₉ and paying and keeping Reeves allows that.

Financial-Monk9400 [OP] | Lakers

6 | 7 hours ago

yeah I agree, especually if you front load the contract because for this season they operate only with him at a 20 million caphold

SilvioMascalzone

6 | 7 hours ago

And seriously. Some max contracts will be 70-80M shortly and if they give him 5 years, maybe even higher toward the end. Given what he’s showed, it’s a great deal for the lakers, it’s just a bad lineup on paper with the three stars being poor defensively.

XboxSeriesCancelled | Knicks

7 | 5 hours ago

Imagine trading for a top 10 player in the league in 2025 then saying that the real planning begins 4 seasons from then

Empressmermaidx

12 | 7 hours ago

Love seeing data-driven takes instead of hot takes.

Financial-Monk9400 [OP] | Lakers

4 | 7 hours ago

thank you!

geroll | Knicks

8 | 6 hours ago

Where is Shamet?

Financial-Monk9400 [OP] | Lakers

2 | 6 hours ago

That is a good question. He should be in there. I remember checking him. I think I accidentally deleted him

Financial-Monk9400 [OP] | Lakers

4 | 6 hours ago

Looked up hos fairsalary number. Thats would be around 5 million

geroll | Knicks

7 | 5 hours ago

Thanks! Seems low compared to the playoff performance he put on - I wonder how highly that will be valued

Financial-Monk9400 [OP] | Lakers

7 | 5 hours ago

Yeah the model is based on the regular season. I think I might make a playoff version as well to see how that changes things, but that is a bit harder because of the smaller sample sizes and differences in games played etc

Clithzbee | Cavaliers

5 | 6 hours ago

Rui under Kevin Huerter?

Financial-Monk9400 [OP] | Lakers

6 | 5 hours ago

Yeah thats one of those things where it isnt perfect. Though it does still put rui as slighly better. Right now the model only looks at regular season stats, for now. And rui had bad advanced numbers this season, in part because the lakers ran him in a few lineups that didn’t fit his skillset. Which tanked his value a bit. And their regular season numbers were somewhat similar. Rui was obviously more efficiënt scoring wise, but huerter had more assists, rebounds, steals, blocks etc.

Rui would get more from a team right now ofcourse

Fidel_Cashflows | Spurs

2 | 2 hours ago

I really think that some team is gonna offer him 20M+. The offensive efficiency is off the charts, even if he doesn’t defend/rebound well for his size.

I’d personally be fine with the Spurs letting Barnes/Olynyk go and use that to give Rui somewhere in the ballpark of a 2yr/35M.

Financial-Monk9400 [OP] | Lakers

1 | an hour ago

I think so to. But I also think letting him go, or signing him to trade him at the deadline isnt a bad option if he goes for 20+

OliviaHoops

6 | 5 hours ago

interesting model — weighting both seasons makes sense since one hot or injured year can really skew the picture. curious how the formula treats guys who missed significant time but were elite when available

Financial-Monk9400 [OP] | Lakers

2 | 5 hours ago

Thank you!

It disvalues them a bit but still shows they were great. I am thinking of also adding totals somewhere in the formula to show availability a bit better. But not sure yet as that might also cause someone who plays 82 games to have a higher value than someone who played 60 but is clearly better.

For mow, embiid was valued at 49 million based on last season. Clearly lower than his max but for 38 games still a bit high.

shangalang69 | Raptors

6 | 5 hours ago

a lakers flair making this and putting ayton’s ideal salary at 12-16m is fucking hilarious

Financial-Monk9400 [OP] | Lakers

9 | 5 hours ago

I think lakers should not offer him that. This is purely numbers based. I didn’t let my emotions judge that.

And to be fair to ayton. He was very efficiënt and not a bad defender. He was just very inconsistent. Wouldn’t be shocked if he would get 12 million in the open market at all

headphonehabit

5 | 3 hours ago

The Lakers might have to bring him back if they can’t make a deal for Kessler, Hartenstein, etc. There aren’t many centers available.

Fidel_Cashflows | Spurs

2 | 2 hours ago

12M of salary and 3M worth of Crunk Juice could fix that right up.

shangalang69 | Raptors

2 | 5 hours ago

i would be lol

Financial-Monk9400 [OP] | Lakers

7 | 5 hours ago

I get that. But honestly 12 million isn’t that much anymore by nba standards

HorizonsEdge

-2 | 4 hours ago

12m purchase of cancer?

Well-Intentioned-Fox

1 | 4 hours ago

Yeah people also seem to forget that Ayton was deadly with his mid range at the beginning of the year. Luka and AR and Bron definitely helped Jax and Ayton with their FG% though, so I would expect that to drop with another team. Lakers had a historically elite half court offense last year.

headphonehabit

1 | 3 hours ago

That’s the range I have been seeing from others as well.

ILikeWhyteGirlz

3 | 7 hours ago

What’s AAV

Financial-Monk9400 [OP] | Lakers

4 | 7 hours ago

Average annual value

anliony

5 | 3 hours ago

Any thoughts on why Watson and Kesseler are low compared to what their expected market value is? Talking heads have both around 30, but Kessler is asking for above that.

Financial-Monk9400 [OP] | Lakers

2 | 3 hours ago

Age and restricted free agency. And defense is the hardest part to get from raw numbers. And watson had a break out year while kessler was injured. I am thinking about what I can and should add to make defense valued a bit more. For watson and other defensive players looking a bit more at the advanced heavy version if the numbers helps. For watson specifically that was almost 20 million last season. Increase that to the new cap and you get to 22 ish.

Edit: oh and it is regular season based. Games played don’t help here either. Their peak value in the playoffs should be higher

Sci-Fy_JK13

3 | 5 hours ago

Mamu! I always loved watching him on the Spurs and was glad to see him cement a role with the Raptors this past year. He always seemed way better than his numbers; the ball just popped around when he was on the floor.

Glad to see I’m not crazy.

Financial-Monk9400 [OP] | Lakers

1 | 5 hours ago

You are definately not alone. His number are great! Interested to see what he will get

Well-Intentioned-Fox

3 | 3 hours ago

Looks great and most numbers seem about right. Maybe undervaluing defense a little? Smart and Kessler seem a bit low?

Norcalguy8615

3 | 3 hours ago

Rui is going to get more than 10-14m.

Financial-Monk9400 [OP] | Lakers

3 | 3 hours ago

Probably yes. But these numbers are based on the model for the regular season. He will get more because of the playoffs mostly. And his regular season advanced numbers where bad this season because of some lineup combo’s that didn’t work. That presse his salary down for this number. If I put in his playoff numbers at the same games played as now he would get about 18-20 million

Technical_Leader8250

2 | 5 hours ago

I understand why westbrook is min-4mio but still surprises me every time I see him so low on lists.

Financial-Monk9400 [OP] | Lakers

1 | 5 hours ago

Same for sure.

Clemsontigger16

2 | 4 hours ago

So is this just expecting everyone to stay with their team?

Financial-Monk9400 [OP] | Lakers

3 | 4 hours ago

Not neccesarily. Would have to make a deeper in depth post per player for that. This was more of a contract value driven post

justredditting1010 | Lakers

2 | 3 hours ago

Watson at 14-18 is crazy. He will double that

wetwetson | NBA

1 | an hour ago

Hasn’t Trae youngs camp already said he’s going to opt out?

Financial-Monk9400 [OP] | Lakers

2 | 42 minutes ago

Yeah they did. This was more an analyses based on the numbers. I wrote that he was likely to opt in before that

PlayguyCarter | Knicks

1 | 7 minutes ago

main issue is thinking Lebron James will take less than the max. That man is box office. From a pure business standpoint (as in the revenue he creates) lebron is a max salary no matter what.

When you factor in basketball, if it weren’t for sciatica he would’ve had yet another All-Nba season and you want him to take a pay cut?? And don’t talk about age because he was more durable than Luka and AR down the stretch.

Im not disagreeing with your other valuations but the lebron one is clearly not thought through completely

Rank	Player	Ideal AAV	Expected outcome	Best value fit
1	Austin Reaves	\(38M to \)41M	5 years, \(190M to \)220M	Lakers
2	Jalen Duren	\(37M to \)41M	5 years, \(180M to \)205M	Pistons
3	James Harden	\(38M to \)45M	2 years, \(85M to \)95M	Cavaliers
4	LeBron James	$30M or less	1+1 year, around $30M annually	Lakers
5	Isaiah Hartenstein	\(28M to \)32M	Option or extension	Thunder
6	Trae Young	\(35M to \)42M	Opt in	Wizards
7	Kristaps Porzingis	\(24M to \)30M	Short protected deal	Warriors
8	Walker Kessler	\(23M to \)27M	4 years, \(100M to \)120M	Lakers
9	Mark Williams	\(20M to \)24M	4 years, \(85M to \)100M	Suns
10	Norman Powell	\(18M to \)22M	2 years, \(40M to \)48M	Heat
11	Tobias Harris	\(16M to \)20M	2 years, \(36M to \)44M	Pistons
12	C.J. McCollum	\(14M to \)18M	1 year, \(18M to \)22M	Hawks
13	Ayo Dosunmu	\(14M to \)17M	3 years, \(48M to \)57M	Timberwolves
14	Mitchell Robinson	Around $15M	2 years, around $35M	Knicks
15	Robert Williams III	\(10M to \)15M	Protected short deal	Contender
16	Tari Eason	\(15M to \)20M	4 years, \(65M to \)85M	Lakers
17	Peyton Watson	\(14M to \)18M	4 years, \(80M to \)100M	Nuggets
18	Bennedict Mathurin	\(15M to \)18M	4 years, \(80M to \)100M	Clippers
19	Anfernee Simons	\(16M to \)20M	3 years, \(60M to \)75M	Magic
20	Coby White	\(18M to \)22M	4 years, \(80M to \)96M	Hornets
21	Collin Sexton	\(14M to \)18M	3 years, \(45M to \)55M	Heat or Magic
22	John Collins	\(12M to \)16M	3 years, \(39M to \)48M	Bulls or Hornets
23	Deandre Ayton	\(12M to \)16M	2 years, \(30M to \)36M	Lakers
24	Luguentz Dort	\(10M to \)14M	Option or rework	Thunder
25	Quentin Grimes	\(10M to \)15M	3 years, \(33M to \)45M	Lakers
26	Dean Wade	\(10M to \)13M	2 years, \(22M to \)28M	Cavaliers
27	Luke Kennard	\(8M to \)12M	2 years, \(18M to \)24M	Lakers or Spurs
28	Kevin Huerter	\(10M to \)14M	2 years, \(22M to \)28M	Pistons
29	Rui Hachimura	\(10M to \)14M	2 years, \(24M to \)32M	Lakers
30	Nikola Vucevic	\(12M to \)16M	1 to 2 years	Celtics
31	Fred VanVleet	\(18M to \)24M	Opt in or short rework	Rockets
32	Jonathan Kuminga	\(12M to \)16M	Option or rework	Hawks
33	Sandro Mamukelashvili	\(8M to \)14M	2 years, \(20M to \)28M	Raptors
34	Neemias Queta	\(10M to \)15M if UFA	Option	Celtics
35	Day’Ron Sharpe	\(8M to \)12M	Option	Nets
36	Keon Ellis	\(6M to \)10M	2 years, \(14M to \)20M	Cavaliers or Lakers
37	Kelly Oubre Jr.	\(6M to \)10M	1 to 2 years	76ers
38	Simone Fontecchio	\(7M to \)10M	2 years, \(14M to \)20M	Heat
39	Jaxson Hayes	\(6M to \)10M	1 to 2 years	Lakers
40	Zach Collins	\(5M to \)8M	1 to 2 years	Bulls
41	Jock Landale	\(5M to \)8M	1 to 2 years	Hawks
42	Matisse Thybulle	\(4M to \)7M	1 year	Blazers or Lakers
43	Gary Payton II	\(4M to \)7M	1 year	Warriors
44	Jordan Goodwin	\(4M to \)7M	1 year	Suns
45	Collin Gillespie	\(6M to \)10M	1 to 2 years	Suns
46	Marcus Smart	\(6M to \)10M	Option or short deal	Lakers
47	Bruce Brown Jr.	\(5M to \)8M	1 year	Nuggets or Heat
48	Harrison Barnes	\(8M to \)12M	1 to 2 years	Spurs
49	Al Horford	\(5M to \)8M	Option or retirement	Warriors or Celtics
50	Cam Thomas	\(8M to \)10M	1-year prove-it	Bucks or Nets
51	Kevin Porter Jr.	\(8M to \)14M	Short prove-it	Bucks or Clippers
52	Gary Trent Jr.	\(4M to \)8M	Option or short deal	Bucks
53	Seth Curry	\(4M to \)6M	1 year	Warriors or Hornets
54	Tim Hardaway Jr.	\(5M to \)7M	1 year	Nuggets
55	Russell Westbrook	Minimum to $4M	1 year	Kings or Clippers
56	Kelly Olynyk	Minimum to $4M	1 year	Spurs
57	Andre Drummond	\(3M to \)5M	1 year	76ers
58	Tyus Jones	\(4M to \)6M	1 year	Nuggets or Lakers
59	Kyle Anderson	\(4M to \)7M	1 year	Wolves or Spurs
60	Khris Middleton	\(5M to \)9M	1 year	Mavericks or Bucks