The Fox-Castle-Harper Discussion is more complex than presented

This “let’s just play Harper + Castle” narrative really doesn’t hold up when you dig.

TLDR they screwed up using Castle in the 4th quarters, not Fox mainly. And every minute Wemby was off the court Fox needed to be on the court.

Let’s look at some net ratings for 2 man lineups to start:

  1. Fox-Castle: -3.3 in 103 minutes, 1.44 AST/TO Ratio
  2. Fox-Harper: +4.5 in 99 minutes, 4.5 AST/TO Ratio
  3. Castle-Harper: -11.9 in 79 minutes, 1 AST/TO Ratio

On the surface, it would seem clear that Castle needed to be benched more based on net ratings, not Fox, and they needed to play Fox-Harper more. They got much worse results than any other combo.

However, this is deceptive. Let’s look at 3 man lineups with Wemby now:

  1. Fox-Wemby-Castle: -1.4 in 100 minutes, 1.41 AST/TO Ratio
  2. Fox-Wemby-Harper: -2 in 75 minutes, 2.24 AST/TO Ratio
  3. Castle-Wemby-Harper: +3.6 in 62 minutes, 1.09 AST/TO ratio

There are several things that immediately jumped out here:

But it gets even messier when we look at the details

  1. Fox-Wemby-Castle: 104.1 OFF, 105.3 DEF
  2. Fox-Wemby-Harper: 102 OFF, 104 DEF
  3. Castle-Wemby-Harper: 96.9 OFF, 93.3 DEF

In other words, the Spurs defense became god tier when you benched Fox, but their offense went to hell completely. So if they wanted a bucket they needed to play Fox.

What’s interesting is this appears to be Knicks specific. Castle-Harper-Wemby was far more effective vs the Thunder for some reason.

Let’s look at 4th quarters. Note a small part of this time was the triple guard lineup but not most.

So…this lineup wasn’t doing good stuff at the end of games:

  1. In every single episode of Harper+Castle, the Spurs ended up worse off than it started, except for the Game 3 100 seconds of even basketball.
  2. This lineup couldn’t score - total of 25 points in 18 minutes which is 1.5 quarters, and at least 20% of those points were FTs

The single best end-of-game run they had, where they took a 12 point Knick lead to a lead and nearly winning, Castle was benched for over 6 minutes.

Then they put him back in cold with 30s left and the bean ball happened. Which makes that situation much worse.

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