Disastrous_Tip2663

467 | 4 hours ago

Maybe it’s 1231?

Sibiq

144 | 3 hours ago

90% of gamblers quit before they hit big

donuthead36

8 | 3 hours ago

But even if they do win big, they tend to lose it all back to the casino anyway.

Long_Ocelot_3327

1 | 25 minutes ago

It’s always a ⁵⁰⁄₅₀. You either win or lose!

Educational_Tank9098

2 | 2 hours ago

xdd

wowlock_taylan

1 | an hour ago

Gambler’s Fallacy is calling!

DonkeyBaal

162 | 4 hours ago

Who told you 1 in 115?

Earthboundplayer

726 | 4 hours ago

The guy selling the heavy belts

PowerfulPlum259

44 | 4 hours ago

🤣

SaviousMT

22 | 3 hours ago

Those prices are insane too in trade chat.

You can buy them on the trade site for like 10ex, but I swear I saw one selling 20 for 10 divine

FlossedUp

5 | 3 hours ago

If you buy in bulk, like TFT or in-game Trade chat, youre paying a premium for buying in bulk and making it easier and quicker getting like 50 instead of loading into 50 different hideouts (less if youre lucky someone is selling multiple in the merchant tab)

awfeel

16 | an hour ago

Anyone using tft after that drama that happened is insane imo

_Hexer

1 | 44 minutes ago

Didn’t that stuff happen like three times and people still use it?
Just the same as irl. A Bloom

krucifix1999

1 | an hour ago

What happened?

UseMeAsBaitPlease

1 | 31 minutes ago

Owner of the server got banned in PoE1. Priceless collection of alt arts and mirror shop gone. He threw a fit and nuked the server.

This is just the most recent of the TFT drama sagas.

LightningWarpAway

1 | 30 minutes ago

The owner got banned in-game and had a crash out on the server announcements, trying to get the server to help guilt trip GGG into unbanning them. This is after the other two times they crashed out and acted badly, and mods literally said they weren’t in charge anymore, but they still controlled the server and deleted it.

GoodThingsDoHappen

9 | 2 hours ago

Fuck tft

FlossedUp

-10 | 2 hours ago

lol @ anyone downvoting me for speaking the truth. Nothing wrong with TFT except Jenebu and his crew.

TFT is a valuable resource for bulk sales, gold, or ascenacy carries, etc with a vouch system to filter out and report the shady scammers. F Jenebu and his goons doing shady shit with the mirror service stuff. There’s thousands of honest Exiles making an honest living selling in bulk or selling ascenacy services to someone struggling. Don’t be an echo chamber bc other people say “TFT bad.”

Educational_Tank9098

4 | 2 hours ago

i was buying them for 15-16 div for 60 belts on tft and chances i was buying for 1 div per 5 chances

harmbasi

-6 | 3 hours ago

Those guys in chat are selling in bulk not just 1.

TeeeRekts

7 | 3 hours ago

Yeah he literally said 20 for 10 divine

Groomsi

0 | 3 hours ago

gif

Past-Lake-7156

130 | 4 hours ago

Yeah no one knows the chance of hitting but it definitely isn’t 1 in 115

SnooHabits8960

32 | 3 hours ago

Is it 1 in 115 of him hitting a headhunter when the chance decides to go unique? if so, he only tripped the 1 in 115 thing 55 times.

averbeg

-10 | 2 hours ago

There is literally an omen that guarentees that it will go unique.

And no, it is not ¹⁄₁₁₅ for an item to go unique with a chance without it. More like ¹⁄₅.

SavageSeraph_

7 | an hour ago

Not ¹⁄₁₁₅ to go unique. They meant ¹⁄₁₁₅ to be hedhunter if it turns into unique. No idea if that’s correct, either, but i think that’s how they meant it.

[deleted]

-5 | an hour ago

[deleted]

SavageSeraph_

6 | an hour ago

Why would you assume they are equally likely to hit? That’s not how any item-modification roll in PoE2 works… (as far as i know)
It’s all weighted.

averbeg

1 | an hour ago

https://preview.redd.it/yt496mdh7x5h1.png?width=1180&format=png&auto=webp&s=fe98e0120ade55150831eec742e19f5ad6279509

SavageSeraph_

0 | an hour ago

Yes, isn’t that showing that the results are different in probability?
Were you trying to prove my point or do i misunderstand what that supposedly means?

averbeg

2 | an hour ago

The point was not there is 24 with equal weight. The point is there is a calc for it.

The point is OP didn’t even use the 4ex omen to guarantee that the belts weren’t destroyed, and chance wasn’t wasted, when belts and chance are both 15ex ea.

Then he somehow managed to exceed average attempts by triple, and miss both. The thread is an obvious lie, is my point.

SavageSeraph_

1 | 34 minutes ago

I think “obvious lie” is a wrongful assessment. “incorrect and based on half-knowledge”, maybe, i don’t know, but i doubt OP sought to deceive here.

Exceeding expected runs by triple is not that unlikely, probably.

As someone with unreasonably poor luck in RL dice games, i have had absurdly low yatzee scores despite having a good grasp on math and probability. Multiple games in succession. That can happen.
Not actually that unlikely.

Ornery_Position_1651

1 | 23 minutes ago

That omen makes it any unique belt not specifically heavy belt unique, thats why its so cheap

nice3rdpartypolicy

3 | an hour ago

?? If you use omen of chance, it still takes unique weighting into account you know??

averbeg

2 | an hour ago

My point was there is a calc for it, not that there is 24 uniques and they are all equal weight distribution.

The other point is, there is an omen, that guarentees it will not destroy, that OP didn’t use. He apparently also thought they were 9 div each.

The thread itself is an obvious lie, is my point.

W00psiee

1 | 15 minutes ago

That omen will upgrade to any unique belt, not any unique heavy belt….

BootCompetitive4546

47 | 4 hours ago

1 in 115 lmao bro where did u get that info

Tjomek

45 | 4 hours ago

The chance of hitting a headhunter is ⁵⁰⁄₅₀. It either hits or it doesn’t. Big brain ;)

sterni006

45 | 3 hours ago

For the sake of science you should keep going till you hit it. Then we will know the new ratio

Educational_Tank9098

17 | 2 hours ago

i am a little bit tilted to keep farming tbh but i think i should continue for science

Groomsi

-9 | 3 hours ago

It’s 1 in 10 000

W-A-R-N-I-N-G-

27 | 4 hours ago

I’ve chanced 1000’s of them since 0.2 and I just hit one at the end of last league. I’m pretty sure it’s 0.01%

Perfectionisto

14 | 3 hours ago

If the drop rate was really 0.01%, that would still mean you are quite lucky.

Quick math: 100%-0.01% = 99.99% chance you get don’t get Headhunter on each chance orb roll.

How many times to roll to get a 99% chance you get at least one Headhunter?

99.⁹⁹⁄₁₀₀ = 0.9999

1 - (0.9999)^n = 0.99

Solve for n

n = about 46,050 chance orbs to get a 99% chance of Headhunter.

Good fuckin luck

chaneg

6 | 3 hours ago

Sure but at the same time, there is only a 4.605~% chance of getting only one headhunter assuming p = 1/10k and 46050 trials with a maximum likelihood at 4 headhunters.

Successes	Probability
0	1.00%
1	4.61%
2	10.60%
3	16.28%
4	18.74%
5	17.26%
6	13.25%
7	8.71%
8	5.02%
9	2.57%
10	1.18%

(Calculated using R)

OP needs a course in economics. At ¹⁄₁₀₀~ the economy just doesn’t support current headhunter prices at all.

Perfectionisto

5 | 3 hours ago

Beautiful work. I like to use 99% as a target, because often when someone complains they aren’t getting a drop, they might be that unlucky 1 in 20 farmers who just aren’t getting anything.

The tail on the probability is brutal. Like an anti lottery, some unlucky bastard might farm 10 times or even 100 times longer than the average person.

And they may think that the rest of the community is wrong, or biased, but nope!

The math is brutal.

W-A-R-N-I-N-G-

3 | an hour ago

This sounds like my experience with trial master with the “it’s 1-60 bro” despite running him 100’s if not 1000’s of times since 0.1 I actually didn’t know the jewel existed until end of 0.2 going into 0.3 I use to just farm him for the extra currency ult’s.

W-A-R-N-I-N-G-

3 | 3 hours ago

That probably sounds about right from my experience, in 0.2 alone I did multiple quad tabs back to back and got like 5 waste gates.

Now I am taking the sum of all done over multiple leagues as my own personal control. I’m sure there’s someone out there that has hit one their first try because I believe there to be to a player time formal involved in all item drops/chances that I’ve been attempting to prove but it seems to be IP related because I went to friends house and used their account as an experiment and they dropped a lock but with a fresh account at home the drop rates were the same.

freak4pb13

2 | an hour ago

So the one time I chanced a heavy belt was probably not going to work anyway? Dang

Cllydoscope

3 | 3 hours ago

So 1 in 10,000 ish

PlayNtheKoots

3 | 2 hours ago

Lol for shits n giggles early in 0.1 when I had 10 orbs/belts I did it instead of selling. I hit HH in ~ 5 tries. I have since not found, or chanced, any chase items. Luck has been spent, idk when it returns.

HaveAShittyDrawing

1 | an hour ago

In that case you have THE worst luck chancing HH’s

Last patch it was around 150-250 Heavy belts per HH, but I think they upped the rarity this patch to T0. Since it seems way more rare than MB. On trade there is 808 MB’s on sale and only 133 HH’s.

W-A-R-N-I-N-G-

1 | 10 minutes ago

At league start it was 12 magebloods and 188 HH the next morning it flipped like people realized MB without a good roll is pretty mid. But yeah always had the worst luck in this game with everything. I could run the most uber op farm strategy and go -5 mirrors only to go back to running seks to pay it off like the game is just telling me to stay there.

EatMyTaintstain

25 | 3 hours ago

You miss 100% of the headhunters you don’t chance.

kugadoft

9 | 3 hours ago

Last league I hit a head hunter on my third chance orb. My biggest moment in poe 2. Too bad it was in a league where head hunters were being mass printed by the temple.

teach49

1 | an hour ago

It’s the main reason I miss last league, yea the prices were insane but it was pretty easy to gear into stuff like HH which was enjoyable

Peppegio123

4 | 4 hours ago

Surely you used the omen to guarantee a unique result right

haikusbot

12 | 4 hours ago

Surely you used the

Omen to guarantee a

Unique result right

- Peppegio123

^(I detect haikus. And sometimes, successfully.) ^Learn more about me.

^(Opt out of replies: “haikusbot opt out” | Delete my comment: “haikusbot delete”)

Ryvs

4 | 4 hours ago

Good bot

vladandrei1996

17 | 4 hours ago

Wouldn’t the odds be even worse? Because it could roll any kind of belt

Peppegio123

6 | 4 hours ago

Eh no clue to be honest, im not much into the burning currency business

Ojntoast

12 | 3 hours ago

Yeah, the omen ensures a unique of the item class. So it could roll to any belt type.

If you were going to use the omen then you’d be better off buying any white belts as opposed to buying all heavy belts

Emikzen

3 | 3 hours ago

it also allows you to hit mageblood, still “worse” odds but since it guarantees at least hitting a unique vs 90% of them getting poofed.

mtnlol

4 | 3 hours ago

Getting a unique that isn’t mageblood or HH is basically the same as them getting poofed.

Also if you use that omen you should absolutely not use heavy belts since they are the most expensive.

Emikzen

1 | 27 minutes ago

I mean you have a low chance regardless even if it doesn’t poof. There’s no other use case for that omen, so why not use it.

mtnlol

1 | 24 minutes ago

Because of added cost (despite them being cheap it adds up) and making the odds even worse since it adds a ton of worthless uniques to the pool of items you can get.

You are basically paying more currency to lower your odds of winning big.

[deleted]

-3 | 4 hours ago

[deleted]

SquarishRectangle

0 | 3 hours ago

Omen of chance does not do that. It only prevents the base from being destroyed. It does not guarantee that it will turn unique.

korzasa

1 | 3 hours ago

oh dang, didnt know that. That’s actually crazy.

Educational_Tank9098

1 | 2 hours ago

i used it once on last belt for my last money

therestlessone

1 | 33 minutes ago

This would be the worst use of either of the chance omens.

Neuropractice

6 | 4 hours ago

Thank you for your sacrifice.

Volitar

7 | 3 hours ago

Did they add t0 in this patch? In POE2 before this patch there was only t1 rarity.

I have chanced a Headhunter every league before this.

elyk7

1 | an hour ago

Yeah the changed it to t0

mikekochlol

1 | 11 minutes ago

Source?

https://poeladder.com/uniques?isPoe2=true&ladderIdentifier=Return_of_the_Ancients_Trade&status=active&grouping=t1

This website has it as t1 but doesn’t have any t0 for this league, tbf

Straight_Stress_4448

4 | 3 hours ago

if it was 1 in 115 ,prices wouldnt be as high as it is now

lightlysaltedfish

3 | 3 hours ago

Ive heard ¹⁄₅₀₀, ¹⁄₂₀₀₀, ¹⁄₅₀₀₀ and ¹⁄₁₀₀₀₀. Not sure which, but ive chanced one every league so far (not yet in this one) so im leaning towards ¹⁄₅₀₀

EvilGodShura

2 | 3 hours ago

Someone lied to you.

Accomplished-Yam-959

2 | 2 hours ago

Last league i chanced about 20 belts and got HH in SSF. So i would suggest you all to always do it take care guys do gamble

nando1969

2 | 2 hours ago

GGG constantly adjust chances, they are always tweaking.

IMO, it used to be more common.

CritOrBuildshit

1 | 4 hours ago

w t f.

Dull-Serve203

1 | 4 hours ago

Try upped hh rarity I heard rip

CouldntThinkOf1

1 | 4 hours ago

Tried chancing the grenade launcher, didn’t work :(

Neuropractice

12 | 4 hours ago

My dude its like 5 ex on trade

Kotobeast

1 | 4 hours ago

Ritual, it will show. Already rolled over it a few times after grabbing one. Berek’s Respite on the otherhand does not exist

Trash_Panda_Trading

1 | 3 hours ago

The house always wins.

Imaginary_Sky9491

1 | 3 hours ago

Remember. You can never lose only quit.

BeatitLikeitowesMe

1 | 3 hours ago

Got it on my 2nd one i picked up in campaign last season, was the only time out of any of the seasons did the chance work for that. Havent took my shot yet this season. Heres hoping the luck is still around. Sry for your loss

catsflatsandhats

1 | 3 hours ago

Guess I’ll just continue running ritualist…

tiwomm

1 | 2 hours ago

I did 3 quad tabs last league and didn’t hit a single one. It ain’t worth.

GoodThingsDoHappen

1 | 2 hours ago

Thanks for buying my belts

SirGioo

1 | 2 hours ago

I’ve been chancing since 0.1 and never got anything, and this league I hit a mageblood on my third chance.

Don’t quit! That pure dopamine hit is worth it

kevanions

1 | 2 hours ago

I chanced my first one last league…got a hh. I guess we average out.

xyrer

1 | 2 hours ago

And this is the part I don’t like about “crafting” in poe2

UnreliablePotato

1 | an hour ago

In previous leagues I chanced 3 of them, and sold them for 8 Div each. Think the odds have been significantly reduced!

Designer_Emergency51

1 | an hour ago

Lol 565 divines, only got 2 so far😂

SithLordMilk

1 | an hour ago

What do you mean bro im 1 for 1 just get the drop

fayrah

1 | an hour ago

i’m at ~50 other belt, still no hit.

Last league i’ve got 2 in a row after ~18-20 other belts, my friend got hh this league after ~25.

Still not sure if it’s weight has been adjusted this league.

https://preview.redd.it/871y9t5jbx5h1.png?width=133&format=png&auto=webp&s=2967026f35512ed5fe87d27ca3c4ecfce6bd8d65

Night_Smasher

1 | an hour ago

Indeed.
Chanced 4 quad tabs of belts, no HH, nothing.
2 quad tabs with chance orbs
2 quad tabs with omen with random ass belts
Honourable mention, 10 belts with omen of the ancients which is 7d per one, yet no HH
I gave up I think

cFREDOc

1 | an hour ago

How you got so much resources

Sielka71

1 | an hour ago

Last league I chanced two belts in SSF and got it.

Swagsmo

1 | an hour ago

How come we dont have a good grasp of the odds? This feels like exact type of community where one guy will spend a whole week looking through hours of footage of people chance orbing belts to get a large enough sample size

Glenalth

1 | 41 minutes ago

Thanks for buying my white belts.

Alicarrd

1 | 40 minutes ago

Wym 1 in 115. It’s ⁵⁰⁄₅₀. You get it. Or you don’t

Automatic-Passion-37

1 | 37 minutes ago

it seems like its not 1 in 115, or ggg just fixed chance to get hh via chance orb

btw i had quad tab full of heavy belts, 0 hh either

Customer-Useful

1 | 33 minutes ago

it used to be ¹⁄₃₀₀-¹⁄₅₀₀

they must’ve made it more rare this league.

my buddy got 1 in ritual and didn’t play more than 150 hours yet.

TheInnsanity

1 | 30 minutes ago

this just means it’s about to hit

aTypingKat

1 | 29 minutes ago

What if we could aggregate data from as many players as possible? That way we could get a large enough sample size to weed out unlucky streaks

Budget_Entry_4690

1 | 23 minutes ago

I’m only did it when I got enough shards for an orb and I must’ve gotten it in less than 10 😂 I didn’t even have 1d to my name

Neakoh

1 | 13 minutes ago

Guy on my friends list is currently at 1438. He updates it on his status regularly.

Dcapiepie

1 | 10 minutes ago

I used around 250 divines before I gave up, horrible experience buying the belts and getting nothing

Accomplished-Side562

1 | 5 minutes ago

Just tried 250 myselft, All to waste. Last season I must have got 5 of them. They changed something.

2ndLion

1 | 5 minutes ago

Got on 1st try in 0.3 on day 2. Been chasing that high since…

xwiroo

1 | 2 minutes ago

When has chancing been reliable? It’s just a waste of money just like any other gambling. The only time it’s great it’s when you win, and that’s supposing it covers your losses

plusFour-minusSeven

0 | 4 hours ago

It’s just RNG. Back in 0.3 I managed to chance two in about 30 tries. Not one continuous try, but I would throw an orb on any heavy belt I found.

In 0.4? Never hit.

Aaron_twin_cities

2 | 3 hours ago

The rarity tier of it changes this league for what it’s worth.

plusFour-minusSeven

2 | 3 hours ago

Oh really?! Good to know, thanks!

polarfang21

0 | 3 hours ago

Never knew it was that low odds…

I’m gonna keep changing any belts I get dropped but still

FlossedUp

0 | 3 hours ago

nah brother i chanced a head hunter in 0.1, 0.3, and 0.4 Its my League starter currency maker to get my build off the ground xD sorry about your rng, 1230 belts is insane. Ive probably chanced like 200 belts and got 3 HH. Wish I knew how to get 565 divines to blow on day 9 of League lmao

apolis21

-1 | 3 hours ago

It’s always ⁵⁰⁄₅₀, either you get it or you don’t

GorbertJefferson

-1 | 3 hours ago

Every heavy belt is a ⁵⁰⁄₅₀ for headhunter. You either get it or you don’t.

averbeg

-1 | 2 hours ago

You didn’t think to use the omen that guarantees that the item will turn into a unique, or, you just didn’t know it exists?

You had 565 div and you didn’t know that? You went out of your way to make this post and record your chances but didn’t actually record the session? Something smells fishy here.

Educational_Tank9098

2 | 2 hours ago

what smells fishy exactly ? i know about the omen that guarantees it and what is the point of using it ? it cost 9 div and i dont see any point to use it. And what is the point for me to make this post just to lie ?

averbeg

0 | an hour ago

What do you mean it costs 9 div lol.

https://preview.redd.it/l8i18suf5x5h1.png?width=1038&format=png&auto=webp&s=f03d9e65b94fd9ba4a593fb0f16584b516c091b1

I dunno, what is the point?

Educational_Tank9098

2 | an hour ago

oh you talking about this one, this one can turn your belt to any unique belt my idea was to get headhunter so thats why i was not using this omen and just chance white belts

averbeg

1 | an hour ago

Headhunter is a unique heavy belt. That is what you are doing with the orb of chance. This just guarantees the belt survives and actually goes unique.

averbeg

0 | an hour ago

https://preview.redd.it/ybealc9o5x5h1.png?width=841&format=png&auto=webp&s=daa03d810e04f8cb158a28fc67d15add32ea74dd

This and normal Heavy Belts costs 15ex+ per would be the reason to use 4ex to make sure it does something.

MusicDroid7

1 | 43 minutes ago

The thing with that Omen is that it guarantees a unique of the same item class. So even if you use it on Heavy Belts the result gets diluted among ALL other unique belts, not just Unique Heavy Belts. So the odds are not exactly better.

Active_Connection_91

-1 | 3 hours ago

Always 50% chance, either you get it or you don’t.

dopamin778

-10 | 4 hours ago

Why this struggle? I got my Headhunter while doing Expedition questline

SkirkMain

3 | 3 hours ago

gif

Jaded-Trouble3669

2 | 3 hours ago

RNG. You got it that way, plenty of people don’t. What OP attempted is another way to get it.

i chanced 1230 heavy belts