According to a metric derived from FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR model, here are the top players by WAR
This might be interesting as we head into the Finals.
Neil Paine’s LAKER metric is a modified version of the RAPTOR model - it maintains running schedule-adjusted ratings for each team based on how they’ve performed on offense and defense (per 100 possessions), the locations of each game and the quality of their opponents.
Something interesting that both RAPTOR and LAKER does is separating playoff Elo from regular season performance, recognizing that teams can be playoff risers or droppers.
With that, here are the top 10 most impactful players this postseason based on its model (a nitty gritty explanation can be seen here). This takes into account both offensive and defensive impact.
1 - Victor Wembanyama | WAR: 3.0
2 - OG Anunoby | WAR: 2.7
3 - Karl-Anthony Towns | WAR: 2.6
4 - Julian Champagnie | WAR: 2.4
5 - Jalen Brunson | WAR: 2.3
6 - Devin Vassell | WAR: 2.0
7 - Mikal Bridges | WAR: 1.9
8 - Dylan Harper | WAR: 1.9
9 - Cason Wallace | WAR: 1.8
10 - Alex Caruso | WAR: 1.7
You can check out the first link for the full list, but something interesting is that before the OKC-SAS series, Victor was actually below OG. He’s since elevated to take the top spot, and we’ll see if he continues to ‘level up’ over the course of the Finals.
As for series odds, the pure statistical odds has both teams neck and neck: 51.8% for a Knicks win and 48.2% for a Spurs win.