[Engelmann] AJ Dybantsa ranks in the 99th percentile for unassisted midrange 2s - a very strong indicator of negative impact on both offense and defense. Other prospects with a similar rate: Fultz, Evan Turner, Johnny Davis, Harrison Barnes.
Interesting article from Jeremias Engelmann:
Building from that data, machine learning found one specific action that turned out to be a very strong indicator of negative impact on both offense and defense: Taking a high number of contested midrange 2s early in the shot clock.
It seems pretty obvious why it lowers offensive impact. The 3-point revolution has been built on the insight that a long 2 — the midrange shot — is the least efficient type of shot. On top of that, contested shots are even more questionable than open ones. And taking them early in the shot clock — without looking for a better shot — only compounds the issue.
It also hints at why poor shot selection is connected with negative defensive impact.
The players who take these shots tend to have a poor grasp of what efficient team offense is about, and/or they are willing to sacrifice efficient team offense to increase their own opportunities and scoring totals.
In this category, Dybantsa ranks in the 99th percentile for draft prospects from 2010 to 2026.
Which prospects had a similar rate of unassisted midrange 2s?
Draft busts Markelle Fultz, Evan Turner, and Johnny Davis.
Harrison Barnes, who’s not the typical bust but who has been a disappointment with a negative career impact.
Brice Sensabaugh, Terry Rozier and Ace Bailey, three gunners with anemic defensive impact.
The team drafting Dybantsa surely doesn’t want him joining this group.