What % of underdogs won in the 2000s and 2010s? That 33% stat means nothing without context.

How much does Lebron leaving his prime and the eastern conference factor into this? He basically ensured his team would make a deep playoff run or make the finals for 15 years in the east.

Having young athletic talent is the move now. Young players actually try on defense. Was 3pt shooting at high volume for 10 years before that. Tanking to get young athletes seems to be the formula now, regardless of basketball skillset as a whole

Wow, I couldn’t disagree more with the anecdotes you brought up for point (1). If anything, the Western conference series that you mentioned were won despite massive injuries (ANT, Divo, Luka, Reaves). Joel Embiid came back to help the Sixers win and last year the Knicks were already up effectively up 3-1 when Jason Tatum tore his Achilles at the beginning of the 4th quarter in game 4.

Eh, it’s still predictable in a way that  only the top 3 seed from both conference won the finals. In fact there’s only two teams that won the championship by being 4th seed and below and those teams were the defending Champions. 

Injuries, teams not taking the regular season as seriously, and aging veteran teams that can defeat the better but less experienced newer teams would be a couple of reasons that could make sense.

You are missing the biggest reason why there has been a shift toward parity. The last two CBAs effectively were a blessing to small market teams. Adam Silver has done a great job with creating parity.

More Talented Role Players

The league’s talent pool has deepened, thanks in large part due to an influx of international players, who comprise nearly one-third of the league. A generation of young players of all sizes have also grown up practicing long-range shooting and ballhandling skills. More players than ever are capable of exploding for 30+ points on any given night.

Having the best superstar in the series is no longer sufficient if someone on the opposing bench simply happens to catch fire. Look no further than the Denver-Minnesota series, in which Ayo Dosunmu scored 43 points off the bench in Game 4 to give his injury-riddled team a 3-1 lead. Five days later, Terrence Shannon Jr., who started two regular season games and averaged 5.6 points per game this season, dropped 24 in a closeout Game 6.

I’m not buying this one without some actual data.

A player having a fluke scoring game in the playoffs is not a new thing, like Juan Dixon randomly scoring 35 to help upset the Bulls in 2005.

And having the best superstar has never been sufficient.

Number 1 is biggest factor and why we haven’t seen any teams looking like dynasties. Bucks and Nuggets could’ve been a rivalry if both stayed healthy. 2 best players in the world for half a decade with teams that fit around them.

Lebron got old

So finals aside, let’s say they are ⁵⁰⁄₅₀ we got 14 series each year (8 1st round, 4 2nd, 2 CF). That means that in 2020s there were 92 series finished + 6 finals. Out of these 92 6 was won by Heats in their 2 finals run.

Giving 6.5% of upsets by itself. 2022 Heat loss was also technically upset, so they are alone responsible for around quarter of upsets.

That is: without Jimmy Butler 2020s wouldn’t differ that much, he’s outlier.

1 and 2 imo.

Injuries are often the most important stat. Very high chance that a team will need to win at least a few playoff games without key players. At worse, the whole run gets compromised.

Works well for OKC though. They can handle potential injuries better than almost any team with their insane depth.

2026 Knicks over Celtics isn’t really a good injury series. They were winning regardless. You should replace it with 2026 OKC over Pacers.

There’s just so much more talent from top to bottom in the league today compared with previous decades. The further back you go, the greater the disparity. It’s not just a bigger US population to pull from, it’s also the fact that the game is truly global now. Not to mention in the 80s and prior, basketball was a solid 3rd amongst popularity in the US (behind Football and Baseball) when it came to what sport athletes focused on. Now it’s in a dead heat with football, but likely gets the nod due to injury concerns with football and the low cost barrier for entry (don’t need pads or special equipment, just need a ball and a hoop)

2026 pacers over cavs? Knicks over Celtics? What?

From what I’ve seen it is largely due to injuries. And that goes back to before 2020.

Injuries can’t be a consideration for why the Lakers won over the rockets when the Lakers were injured as shit too

All valid points. You’re a top 1%er on this sub OP.

There’s so many more good teams now.

Look back with a critical eye at the 2000s and 2010s, and look at teams that were finishing in the 3rd-8th seeds and compare them to the 3rd-8th seeds today.

It is absolutely night & day.

The 2010s were defined by a pathetic Eastern Conference where LeBron would move around to collect championships by getting a new team to mortgage 10 years for 4-5 of LeBron. The weak conference made it easy to hit the Finals every year.

The Warriors did their best kill that. It was a joy but that got old as well.

Then we got the bullshit bubble championship.

It’s honestly been great not having that LeBron cycle on repeat.

Lmao how many of these upsets have been the wolves in the past three years. I feel like every series we’re the underdogs.

Only thing staying the same is ruby gobert getting benched when it matters most like game 1 vs spurs