The NBA Playoffs used to be predictable. Then the 2020s started. Underdogs have won 33% of series this decade Here are 5 reasons why the NBA has entered its chaos era
https://www.sportico.com/leagues/basketball/2026/2026-nba-playoffs-odds-76ers-lakers-1234891951/
(1) NBA playoff injuries are way more common now
Nearly every big upset over the past two years was at least somewhat impacted by injuries (2026 Sixers over Celtics, 2026 Lakers over Rockets, 2026 Wolves over Nuggets, 2026 Pacers over Cavs, 2026 Knicks over Celtics)
(2) NBA teams take more 3s than ever, and 3s are higher variance
In the first round, the Celtics won the three games when they shot above 35% from three but lost all four games when they shot below 35%
Other series were also impacted by shooting variance
(3) The gulf between regular season and playoff basketball has widened
Part of that is due to changes in playoff officiating
(4) Home court advantage in the NBA is far less significant than it used to be
(5) The NBA’s talent pool is deeper than ever
There are far more bench players now like Ayo Dosunmu (43 points in Game 4) and Terrence Shannon (24 points in Game 6) who can randomly swing a playoff game