Southern_sky | Spurs

512 | 7 hours ago

Here’s looking at you Orlando

OverallGeneral7129 | Cavaliers

99 | 7 hours ago

Or the Lakers I guess

LeoFireGod | Mavericks

65 | 5 hours ago

Lebron winning another championship at 41 with his son getting minutes would genuinely be cinema I wouldn’t even care that it’s the lakers. Atleast it won’t be Okc again.

tlj2494 | Celtics

19 | 5 hours ago

I think it would make an amazing addition to his biopic.

SnooChipmunks4208

8 | 5 hours ago

LeAncestor

seclusionx | Rockets

0 | 5 hours ago

I’d rather OKC win again. As sad as that is.

GreedyLack | Thunder

-5 | 5 hours ago

Oh yeah that Luka trade definitely worked in your favor

LeoFireGod | Mavericks

5 | 4 hours ago

Lmfao.

LakerBlue | Lakers

4 | 5 hours ago

Honestly the Magic being an 8 seed feels like it should be an exception to this trend. I’m assuming almost all the champions have had a top 4 seed. For however flawed Detroit is, I’d wager they are far tougher than whoever most of the NBA champs have faced in round 1.

RansomGoddard | NBA

302 | 7 hours ago

Went back to 2003 when they switched to 7 game series to see if this holds up.

2013 Heat: Swept the first round.

2012 Heat: Beat Knicks in 5.

2011 Mavs: Beat Blazers in 6.

2010 Lakers: Beat Thunder in 6

2009 Lakers: Beat Jazz in 5

2008 Celtics: Beat Hawks in 7

2007 Spurs: Beat Nuggets in 5

2006 Heat: Beat Bulls in 6

2005 Spurs: Beat Nuggets in 5

2004 Pistons: Beat Bucks in 5

2003 Spurs: Beat Suns in 6

Individual_Attempt50 | Nets

162 | 7 hours ago

Celtics going to 7 is something that I see come up more and more when it comes to discussing Doc Rivers lol

NeverSober1900 | Rockets

78 | 5 hours ago

Because that Hawks team was ass and it really should not have taken them more than 5 to get through it.

Mintastic | NBA

27 | 4 hours ago

With Doc you just gotta be happy if they don’t blow a 3-1 lead.

kayknox_ | Kings

25 | 3 hours ago

Boston took 7, 7, 6, and 6 games to win every series, which I think is the most out of any championship team.

kamekaze1024

1 | 28 minutes ago

It has to be. First round didn’t go to best of 7 until ‘03 and the Celtics were only 2 games short of the maximum possible games.

MediumCookedRibeye

125 | 7 hours ago

Interesting that it breaks down in the era where players played more games and minutes due to the game being less taxing on the body back then. Seems with how the game has changed you need to get things done more quickly early to avoid extra wear and tear.

ScheduleExcellent380 | Wizards

23 | 7 hours ago

What’s interesting to me here is only 1 team had a best of 7 series actually go 7 in first round and win title. 22 years is enough of a sample size. If anything that means you pretty much have a 1 percent chance to win title if you go 7 games in round 1.

jiriwelsch44 | Celtics

19 | 4 hours ago

r/theytriedthemath

aiyhtan | Lakers

11 | 4 hours ago

Wouldn’t that be closer to 5% or am I bugging?

KeyChallenge4562

13 | 5 hours ago

League parity might be real in terms of how many teams are true contenders now, but the difference between the top seeds and bottom seeds has only grown. The playoffs has more blowouts than the regular season for that exact reason

Zeetheking1 | Lakers

6 | 7 hours ago

Wild the drop off since 2014, since it seemed a lot more common before. I guess it’s a product of the league shifting to player empowerment/movement and skill sets changing. 🤷🏽‍♂️

hullowurld | Mavericks

17 | 7 hours ago

>I guess it’s a product of the league shifting to player empowerment/movement and skill sets changing. 🤷🏽‍♂️

that’s probably true. between the heat, warriors, cavs, there have been some dominant teams in their conferences, and with the consolidation of stars onto fewer teams the 6-7-8 seeds are weaker than they were historically.

so from 2003-2011 OP’s criteria was only true for 4 out of 9 champions, and 2012-2025 it’s been true for 13 out of 14 champions

ShippyDawg | Lakers

155 | 7 hours ago

So if we win today you’re telling me there is a chance?

PartyAlex | Lakers

53 | 7 hours ago

Yessir. The stats don’t lie.

OverallGeneral7129 | Cavaliers

27 | 7 hours ago

And they spell disaster for you at Sacrifice

fooliodoolio | Lakers

9 | 5 hours ago

33 and ¹⁄₃ chance ++

Meng3267 | Bulls

1 | 4 hours ago

I love it when I see someone reference Steiner math and it’s not in a wrestling subreddit.

OverallGeneral7129 | Cavaliers

5 | 4 hours ago

I’ve got that entire promo saved and on standby

You know they say that all men are created equal, but you look at me and you look at Samoa Joe and you can see that statement is not true. See, normally if you go one on one with another wrestler, you got a ⁵⁰⁄₅₀ chance of winning. But I’m a genetic freak and I’m not normal! So you got a 25%, AT BEST, at beat me. Then you add Kurt Angle to the mix, youda chances of winning drastic go down. See the 3 way at Sacrifice, you got a 33 ¹⁄₃ chance of winning, but I, I got a 66 and ²⁄₃ chance of winning, because Kurt Angle KNOWS he can’t beat me and he’s not even gonna try! So Samoa Joe, you take your 33 ¹⁄₃ chance, minus my 25% chance and you got an 8 ¹⁄₃ chance of winning at Sacrifice. But then you take my 75 persansans chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 ²⁄₃ chans percents, I got 141 ²⁄₃ chance of winning at Sacrifice. See Nic Joe, the numbers don’t lie, and they spell disaster for you at Sacrifice.

ShippyDawg | Lakers

3 | 5 hours ago

About time numbers did something for me.

monopolyman636

7 | 4 hours ago

Sorry but no. The Lakers have never won a championship in a year that ended in the number 6. 0-5 and 7-9, but never 6

IndubitablyMoist | Mavericks

3 | 4 hours ago

Well nothing like the present.

DisMeDog

96 | 7 hours ago

Makes sense the talent discrepancy in the first round should be large enough that it isn’t actually a competition. If that’s not the case you were probably just regular season merchants.

FuqueMePapi | Timberwolves

14 | 7 hours ago

Hey Nuggets! Looking at you!

Alcibiades_Rex | Nuggets

8 | 4 hours ago

You’re not winning in 5 or 4 either. We’re in this dogfight together. 😘

Zeeron1 | Thunder

1 | 21 minutes ago

The only thing standing in their way of winning in 5 was ironically the only thing keeping them standing! Damn ligaments…

FuqueMePapi | Timberwolves

1 | 12 minutes ago

Yeah, but we’re not the 3 seed that was overwhelmingly favored going into this series.

tmcuthbert

3 | 3 hours ago

The Mavs team the Spurs beat won 49 games. Can’t imagine too many 8 seeds over the years have won that many games.

PkmnMstr10

53 | 7 hours ago

Lakers and Pistons???

mac035 | DAL

72 | 6 hours ago

Pistons going to Cancun championship games I believe

fooliodoolio | Lakers

10 | 5 hours ago

Nah they goin to Galveston if they lose game 5 at home after the great season they had

Sammyd1108 | Hornets

40 | 6 hours ago

I think OP hasn’t been watching the playoffs lol.

onlyhightime

26 | 6 hours ago

Saw 3-1 and assumed it was Detroit…

jjkm7 | Raptors

4 | 3 hours ago

Can’t even blame him tbh

BoredomHeights | Warriors

4 | 5 hours ago

Pistons blowing it so bad even stats like this still think they must be winning.

This_Field_7872

52 | 7 hours ago

Think this is a wear and tear issue. Less games you need to play the better for your team

mickelboy182 | Nuggets

41 | 6 hours ago

There’s also the obvious correlation of the better you are, the less likely you are to lose the games that would necessitate going deeper.

YourWorstNightmare9

31 | 7 hours ago

Makes sense. The Thunder and the Spurs are by far the favorites to win the title this year barring injuries.

Big-Renny-1511

26 | 7 hours ago

I think the biggest reason for that is the Playoffs are so demanding physically these days that making it past the first and maybe even second round quickly is crucial to save your legs for the last two rounds.

Either_Imagination_9 | Knicks

19 | 7 hours ago

Stats are meant to be broken

_Caek_ | Thunder

0 | 7 hours ago

incoming Lakers chip

Fun-Spray-4269

11 | 7 hours ago

Lakers can still win in 5

king_17

-4 | 6 hours ago

Sorry bud Knicks ain’t winning the chip this year

Either_Imagination_9 | Knicks

13 | 6 hours ago

Flairless users don’t mean anything

SonofaCuntLicknBitch | NBA

-8 | 6 hours ago

Sorry bud, Knicks ain’t winning the ‘ship this year

Either_Imagination_9 | Knicks

12 | 6 hours ago

Flairless users don’t mean anything

SonofaCuntLicknBitch | NBA

-6 | 4 hours ago

I could go put on a Knicks flair right now. Flairs don’t mean anything either

Either_Imagination_9 | Knicks

8 | 4 hours ago

Yeah you could, it would make you look worse, but yeah you could

a_m_k2018

-7 | 5 hours ago

Sorry bud Knicks ain’t winning the chip this year

Either_Imagination_9 | Knicks

8 | 5 hours ago

Flairless users don’t mean anything

GrumbleAlong

0 | 4 hours ago

Knicks are sweeping from here on out!

Akimbo_Zap_Guns | Celtics

-2 | 3 hours ago

Sorry man but the Knicks aren’t winning the championship

Either_Imagination_9 | Knicks

9 | 3 hours ago

Celtics users don’t mean anything

Apollo18Teslaa | Spurs

16 | 7 hours ago

So Spurs or Thunder guaranteed to win this year?

Air2Jordan3 | Cavaliers

56 | 7 hours ago

The disrespect to Orlando smh

vindictivejazz | Thunder

26 | 7 hours ago

The Lakers could also win their series in 5

herroyung | Warriors

5 | 5 hours ago

sharpe is creaming rn

dmavs11 | NBA

7 | 7 hours ago

Lakers still in the mix too

onlyhightime

8 | 6 hours ago

Lakers / Magic finals, exactly what we expected.

Apollo18Teslaa | Spurs

2 | 7 hours ago

You’re right for some reason I thought all the other series would be 6 games.

Championship_Chuck | Celtics

1 | an hour ago

About that….

schooli00 | TOR

1 | 5 hours ago

Make that a Chuck guarantee

WarPuig | Celtics

1 | 2 hours ago

One of the two, yeah. No one else is close.

Foi_ | Knicks

8 | 7 hours ago

you mustve forgot the orlando magic.

[deleted]

0 | 7 hours ago

[deleted]

Sammyd1108 | Hornets

4 | 6 hours ago

You put Pistons, not Magic lol.

If Pistons won their series tonight, that’d be a miracle since it’s impossible.

kellydayscruff

7 | 7 hours ago

league has far more parity than 12 years ago. the east is especially far more balanced than it has been historically and literally 5 different teams could get to the finals

iLuvRachetPussy | Knicks

1 | 7 hours ago

Aren’t there 15 teams still in contention?

kellydayscruff

2 | 7 hours ago

5 teams in the east

ScheduleExcellent380 | Wizards

1 | 7 hours ago

League has had parity for a long time. Since 07 there has only been 1 dynasty. 80-05 had 5 dynasties. In the 20 years since we had 1.Also from 13-16 there was a different champion every year. 17&18 good chance we get thunder and rockets winning titles if KD don’t leave. KD ruined it. We could’ve had different champion from 13-now. Before 13 06-11 had 5 different champions in 6 years. 80s-mid 00s were so many dynasties but that era been over with. NBA been pushing for parity but KD move ruined it.

fredovan | Raptors

2 | 4 hours ago

Yes there has only one dynasty between 2007 to 2019 but only 9 different teams made to the finals in that decade and a half. And certain teams like the Cavs (5), Heat (5) and Spurs (3) had many Finals appearances. The league was still very top heavy. It was only since the raptors championship that we had true parity.

I_Set_3_Alarms | Celtics

7 | 7 hours ago

2008 Celtics did it, that’s all that matters to me

brianpaulandaya | Thunder

2 | an hour ago

Doc Rivers agrees

TooMuchPowerful | Lakers

7 | 7 hours ago

Lakers already battling the ”No coach has ever won unless they win in their first Season“ stat dating back to the 50s. This is nothing in comparison.

Drak_is_Right | Pacers

2 | 3 hours ago

You should fire your coaches more often

_marichan_

4 | 7 hours ago

The Magic against the Thunder or Spurs will be. Very Interesting

fredovan | Raptors

3 | 4 hours ago

It really wouldn’t. I don’t think anyone other than the Celtics can make the finals competitive against the Thunder or Spurs.

_marichan_

1 | 3 hours ago

I’m not being serious it could probably be one of the worst finals ever if it does happen

No_Caramel_1782 | Wizards

3 | 7 hours ago

The warriors and cavs being juggernauts at the time kind of skews the 2015-2018 data. We likely need way more data to identify a trend.

[deleted]

3 | 6 hours ago

[deleted]

Superlolz

3 | 6 hours ago

Pistons/Cavs/Raptors all seem to be in the exact same tier right now. It’d be very competitive with any of those four teams on that side of the bracket.

Fonzie5 | Mavericks

1 | 6 hours ago

We had them too.

That Vince shot in game three was electric

Nickespo22

0 | 6 hours ago

No. You did not lol rivalry lightning in a bottle till y’all got wiped off the map in game 7 lol

Fonzie5 | Mavericks

0 | 6 hours ago

What? Going into game 7, the Spurs three wins were by 5, 3, and 6 points. The first six games were extremely even other than the Mavs blowing the Spurs out in game 2.

Nickespo22

-2 | 5 hours ago

You’re conveniently leaving out game 7 lol spurs woke up finally and mavs incredible lucky shot making including Vince’s crazy shot ran out.

Fonzie5 | Mavericks

1 | 5 hours ago

It was a seven game series where the team that won didn’t win any of their first three games by more than two possessions. All of those games, except for the Mavs blowing the spurs out in game two, literally could’ve gone either way.

I don’t know if you’re struggling with the basketball or the math here, but either way, weird hill to die on.

A good three point shooter hitting an open corner three is lucky? Wild.

Nickespo22

-1 | 4 hours ago

It absolutely wasnt open lol how old were in that year? You’re missing context and acting like this was a vacuum. Judging on how both teams played that season it wasn’t close once the spurs woke up. That game 7 was over in the first quarter. Credit to Dallas for waking the spurs up but they were never losing that series

Fonzie5 | Mavericks

-1 | 4 hours ago

You’re acting like they decided to wake up and win the series. The Mavs easily could’ve won any of the first three games they lost and that would be it. Hell, if Dejuan Blair (who had a double double in 15 minutes) doesn’t kick at Splitter in game 4 and get thrown out the Mavs probably take that one and we’re done.

To pretend like the Spurs were playing with their food is an insane take.

Nickespo22

-1 | 3 hours ago

Dodged the question but i know the answer now. You’re delusional for both those paragraphs lmao the only excuse ill give you is you were a very young naive mavs fan. But yes that’s exactly what the spurs were doing and the Mavs happened to hit a lot of difficult shots. Game 7 is what the whole series would’ve normally looked like if the above didn’t happen.

“We had them too” lmao the team that had the highest margin of victory in the finals? That one? Ok buddy

Fonzie5 | Mavericks

-1 | 2 hours ago

Sweetheart, look I know what you’re trying to do. If you want to ignore the reality of the series, and if you actually believe that teams can just decide that they want to win (or lose!) a playoff game, there is not enough evidence or logic on planet earth that is going to change your opinion.

I wish you good luck in the future. Truly.

Nickespo22

1 | an hour ago

“if only Dejuan blair didnt kick splitter wed be champions” lol whata world to live in with a poverty franchise

TheAgmis | Thunder

2 | 6 hours ago

How come nobody said “the Mavs took the Spurs to 7” the same way people say “the nuggets took the Thunder ton7?”

Old_Supermarket_7575 | Thunder

2 | 5 hours ago

So spurs and thunder

Got it

Not shocking

Wild_Bill_22

2 | 5 hours ago

Ahh the 2014 Spurs vs Mavs , Timmy vs Dirk, epic series , rematch of the 2006 7 game western finals

Greatness

CS172 | Mavericks

2 | 5 hours ago

Was that the series when Vince Carter hit that insane corner 3 pointer?

Statalyzer

1 | an hour ago

Yes.

fredovan | Raptors

2 | 4 hours ago

More evidence that Celtics and the Cavs should have closed out their series in 5 games. Still can’t believe that Sixers and Raptors are going to extend their respective series to at least 6 games.

UseSufficient1561

2 | 3 hours ago

Crazy how often that pattern holds, but it also kinda makes sense. If you’re a real contender you usually take care of business early and keep your guys fresh.

Love that the last team to break it was the 2014 Spurs though. Hopefully history repeats itself and it’s the 2026 Spurs on this list next with Wemby leading the way.

chicknsnadwich | Heat

1 | 7 hours ago

this is magic erasure

PalePilsenDiet | Warriors

1 | 7 hours ago

Good. Warriors in 5…years!

Cojo840 | HOU

1 | 5 hours ago

Pistons? lol

BoredomHeights | Warriors

1 | 5 hours ago

It will never actually happen because money, but the Playoffs should really be six teams a conference.

Then your top teams won’t sit players, because they’re fighting for a bye. Your mid teams won’t stop trying because they’re fighting just to make playoffs.

Tanking for the the lower half of the league would obviously go up, but maybe with the new rules it’d go down.

Obviously this would lose the league millions in revenue. But it would make me care about the regular season again. Instead of (with the stupid play in) basically ²⁄₃ teams making playoffs.

AleroRatking | Vancouver Grizzlies

1 | 4 hours ago

I mean. Id expect that to hold this year. Its tough for me to see a team not named OKC or San Antonio winning this

The1AndOnlyJZ | LAL

1 | 3 hours ago

So the only potential contenders left are OKC, the Spurs,… us and the Magic

Checks out 100%

aldaryn_GUG

1 | an hour ago

I would state the contrapositive of the “theorem:” if you go to 6, might as well pack it up now.

JohnEffingZoidberg | NBA

1 | an hour ago

The Spurs lost Game 2 at home by 21, and were down 1-2 in that series after 3 games. Arguably the low point of their playoff run.

Then they went 15-5 the rest of the playoffs. That includes a decisive Game 7 win by 23, beating a 54 win Blazers team in 5, a 59 win Thunder team in 6, and a 54 win Heatles in 5.

Level-Guidance-3195

0 | 7 hours ago

Records are made to be broken

FuqueMePapi | Timberwolves

2 | 7 hours ago

Cool! This isn’t a record.

No team in the last 12 seasons has gone onto to win the championship if the first round series lasted more than five games. The last team to do it were the 2014 Spurs who defeated the Mavs in 7 games.