Per Jonathan Givony:

The NIL era is flipping the NBA Draft on its head. Only 71 players entered the 2026 NBA Draft, per the NBA. Down from 106 last year and a peak of 363 in 2021. That’s the lowest early-entrant total since 2003. College basketball stars are staying in school, overwhelmingly.

The full picture of how NIL reshaped the NBA Draft.

Early-entry numbers climbed from 2016-2021, peaking at 363 when COVID forced seniors to declare to keep draft eligibility.

Alston hit in June 2021, kickstarting the NIL era. Five years later: 71.

T-UM | Bucks

80 | an hour ago

This was expected though right? I remember 2-3 years ago when NIL first got on the scene it was predicted guys would stay in school longer and longer. Ultimately this should correct itself relatively soon.

And the nba is more talented than ever so it shouldn’t be an issue.

EchoHevy5555

23 | an hour ago

This year NIL is established, I expect that this will be the all time low, low early entrants will become the norm but number of players total will return to its constant as players graduate

RspectMyAuthoritah | Lakers

1 | 29 minutes ago

Yep, in 2-3 years it will be back to normal as those players that stayed in school longer start declaring along with the younger players. Ultimately I’d expect very few 1st rounders stay as even the 30th pick is guaranteed at least 5.5m over the first 2 years (and potentially 14m+) and it gets them to free agency faster than staying, which is where the real money is made. It’s the 2nd rounders that are going to decide to stay since they get a lot of non-guaranteed deals and 2 way contracts and likely can make more in college.

This will be good for the NBA because they’ll get more developed players in the draft and players that are more physically ready to compete against grown men when they first come in. Most 2nd rounders are already on to their 2 contract before really being able to impact the game, if they even get there. Getting them at 22 instead of 19 should increase the hit rate on those picks and get more immediate impact.

tmcuthbert

1 | 9 minutes ago

Could be with expansion

Hand_of_Doom1970

1 | 29 minutes ago

On what basis do you say it’s more talented than ever?

The_NGUYENNER | DEN

1 | 16 minutes ago

that’s how humans work

Peregrinations12

-6 | an hour ago

Is the NBA more talented than ever? There were a lot of bad teams this year.

Alert-Effective-1730 | Bulls

17 | an hour ago

In general it’s more a choice than incapability for the bottom teams this year apart from the kings

jluc21 | Kings

18 | an hour ago

Man i can’t go on any fucking thread in here

EchoHevy5555

6 | an hour ago

There is always a lot of bad teams

The thing that made the bad teams unique this year was that they were choosing to be bad

ThinReply2047 | Thunder

3 | an hour ago

It’s not from lack of talent. It’s from GMs and coaches knowing they’re not title contenders and would rather continue to build than just consistently be mid (looking at you Miami Heat).

Clemsontigger16

2 | 39 minutes ago

Yes it is

antisocially_awkward | Knicks

1 | 4 minutes ago

In terms of the depth of talent its the deepest the league has ever been

Happycappybara21

40 | an hour ago

This is good. There’s only 30 guranteed first round contracts.

Guys stay in school, still get paid, get degree.

SquimJim | Celtics

36 | an hour ago

Personally, I’m happy for the players. Glad they get to share in the wealth that is being made off of them. Teams are just going to have to get better at drafting.

Brad discussed this last year and that there are players that he thought were really good, but he wouldn’t be able to draft them because of NIL money.

He drafted Hugo Gonzalez and he did very well for us this year

MahomesMccaffrey | Slovenia

29 | an hour ago

This is actually a great thing for all parties involved.

For the players, they are finally getting paid and rightfully so.

For college programs, they get to retain more talents.

For the NBA, they could spend less on developing players when more non-lottery draft prospects decided to stay in school

Damxel | Toronto Huskies

8 | an hour ago

For college programs, they get to retain more talents.

Part of why I never understood the push against NIL for so long.

Happycappybara21

10 | 33 minutes ago

Because why pay for labor when it’s free.

no_good_names_avail | Raptors

1 | 25 minutes ago

“Student ath-e-letes? Oh huh that is brilliant sir. When we sell their likeness for video games, how do we get around paying our slav..student athletes then?” Eric P Cartman

ClaymoresRevenge | Bulls

1 | 31 minutes ago

Greed

SpinJitsu259 | Pacers

1 | 23 minutes ago

Well, the one possible drawback I suppose is many don’t retain their talent. A good portion of college teams are forced to remake their rosters year to year because of the transfer portal.

Different-Mountain58 | Trail Blazers

1 | 25 minutes ago

Yeah. Lotta problems with modern college athletics. This isn’t one of them.

walterdog12 | BOS

12 | an hour ago

71 entering early FWIW.

This number doesn’t count seniors.

redbrick | Lakers

6 | an hour ago

I don’t think NBA teams mind. They’re happy to get more game tape on prospects and let colleges spend their resources developing players.

ForceOfP

5 | an hour ago

What’s NIL?

WitheredUntimely | Hawks

9 | an hour ago

“Name, Image, and Likeness” it’s the NCAA’s half-step to allowing players to get paid, which means there’s far less incentive for good, not great college players to leave for the NBA

zhick27 | San Francisco Warriors

4 | an hour ago

Name, image, likeness. Basically they are getting paid while playing in college

solo118 | Knicks

4 | an hour ago

Stay in school kids

lycosid

2 | 42 minutes ago

In the long run I would expect the back of the 1st to have more older, usable players as borderline lottery picks opt to stay in school and development for another year or two.

notthesethings

1 | 24 minutes ago

Only 11 players aren’t going to get drafted. That’s crazy.

TreeBeard8891

1 | 18 minutes ago

How I understood it is this is the number of early entrants(meaning guys who still have college eligibility but chose to enter). So, this doesn’t include the college seniors or international draft prospects

JimmyKanine

1 | 20 minutes ago

What happens when the number of players declared drops below the total number of picks?

addictivesign

2 | an hour ago

But how will this work once players get to their maximum allowed years in college?

Probably the superstars are still one and done.

Players on the lottery bubble go back to college for a second year.

Then players which feel a loyalty to their school/college might stay for a third year if they are a contender for a title.

This could mean that college basketball draws more interest and is a higher quality and that the players have better fundamentals when they get into the league after two or three years in college.

Being an experienced player in college is probably a lot more fun than sitting on the bench in the NBA or being assigned to the G-League.

VCarry-NL | Thunder

1 | 38 minutes ago

The top 20 players who were mocked high all declared, it was mainly late first and early second round players that went back to school rightfully so but none of them were lottery.

JoJonesy | Celtics

1 | 33 minutes ago

i mean the top prospects are still gonna come out early, this affects the back half of the draft more than the front half. and even then it’s only gonna be for a few years while the shift happens

BillKennedyEnjoyer | Nets

1 | 25 minutes ago

363 guys fighting for 60 draft spots is insane

Ok-Wash-9386 | Hawks

1 | 6 minutes ago

Good