Anthony Edwards in games 3 and 4, which the Timberwolves won by 15 points per game, averaged 11-4-1 on 30-27-100 shooting splits and just 21 minutes per game. Can they close out this series against the Nuggets without him?
The Timberwolves are now up 3-1 against the Nuggets, suffering a pyrrhic victory Saturday night which cost them Donte—and likely Ant—for the entire playoffs, and certainly for the remainder of this series.
It goes without saying that Ant and Donte are crushing losses. Ant is the best player on the Timberwolves and what gives them a contender ceiling, while Donte has been a lynchpin in everything the Timberwolves are trying to do this season on both ends of the court.
Without them– and especially Ant– they are doomed beyond the first round.
A key point of optimism for Timberwolves fans; they’ve won their last two games with an average margin of victory of 15, and Anthony Edwards averaged 11-4-1 on 30-27-100 shooting splits and just 21 minutes per game.
The reality is that Ant has spent much of this series looking physically hobbled and playing poorly (though he’s still had moments of brilliance). He’s struggled to get to the rim at his regular frequency, he hasn’t been able to get his usual lift on jumpshots, and he’s struggled to physically navigate the court on defense, let alone defend well. He averaged 19-7 on 36-26-86 shooting splits with wildly inconsistent defense. In fact I think it can be pretty plainly argued that Donte– for this particular series– will be the more impactful loss.
While the odds of Minnesota winning this series have justifiably dropped dramatically, the Timberwolves have been winning off of team defense and collective rim pressure, both of which are largely still intact. Randle, Jaden, Ayo, and Naz have all had little difficulty in getting to the rim, and their best defenders in this series are still healthy.
Minnesota also has two bench players who have gotten limited run this series who project to slot in pretty seamlessly, in terms of providing more shotmaking and rim pressure:
- Bones Hyland: Averaged 15-3-4 on 47-42-82 shooting splits when he played more than 20 minutes this season (23 games). Difficult shot maker who plays with a ton of pace, can finish at the rim well, and whose game has scaled really well when he’s played for the injured Ant.
- Terrence Shannon Jr: TSJ has struggled with health issues this season, but his single greatest NBA skill is attacking the rim with power/athleticism, which has been the formula for the Timberwolves this series. He also demonstrated some quality playoff reps against OKC last season, and closed this regular season’s final three games averaging 27 ppg on 55-48-85 shooting splits.
While neither of them are a replacement for Ant, and neither of them can do the dirty work that Donte did, they are both offensive weapons whose skillsets can help fill part of the deficit left by Ant and Donte, and specifically whose skills on offense align with a playstyle that Denver has proven they don’t have a counter to on defense.
The Nuggets almost certainly will tonight, but I think writing the Timberwolves off this series simply because Ant is done does not take into account how these specific four games have actually played out.