Celtics 3-point luck
The Celtics average 36.7% 3P rate and the Sixers average 34.9% 3P rate this season. For simplicity, assume both teams average 36% 3P rate.
Standard Deviation in points for a 3-pointer: 1.44
Celtics attempted 43 threes and Sixers attempted 37 threes. This means the expected 3P difference b/t Celtics and Sixers is (49 - 39) * 0.36 = +3.6 in favor of the Celtics. The standard deviation is 1.44 * square root(88 total attempts) which is around 13.5
Celtics made 13 threes and Sixers made 19 threes. -18 in favor of Sixers. That is (3.6-(-18))/13.5 = 1.6 standard deviations below the mean, which is bottom 5.6% luck. And the game was tied in the middle of the fourth before we shot cold again.
We’ll be fine.