NBA MVP vote tracker so far: SGA 7 first place votes, Jokic 3 first place votes, Wemby 1 first place vote
Source for the document
Interestingly out of the 7 full ballots none had Jokic 2nd he was 1st 3 times and 3rd 4 times
The voting makes sense tbh. SGA is a more “traditional” MVP vote, so the people voting for him will take into account team records if they deem the candidates to be close to one another, so they will almost all end up having Wemby second.
The people who vote Jokic will cite analytics and offensive dominance, which would naturally lead to SGA being their second pick.
It will be interesting to see if anyone ends up having SGA 3rd, I’m not sure what criteria would lead to the conclusion (except maybe being a frequent r/nbatalk user).
All jokes aside, what is the point of nbatalk?
Every time I browse that sub, it reminds me of NBA discussion Facebook groups. There’s no real discussion, just shitposts
I honestly thought it was a circle jerk sub
They literally have no enforced rules. Nothing gets removed. At this point it’s a social experiment to see what would happen if r/nba had no rules
Reading some of the comments under some of the posts read like bots and 13yr old TikTok boys
Good thing no one on r/nba ever sounds like a 13 year old tik toker :)
I think originally it was started in response to the time that the mods here locked down the subreddit during playoffs for a “protest” but had their own private game threads, still. Sacrificing nothing while preaching to the community about sacrifice lmao
It was originally a spin off of r/nbadiscussion because there was essentially a mod there that was shutting the sub down. Some people pushed back and wanted to take control of it and some started a new one
You know what, you might be right. I think that’s why it was made originally and the reason I mentioned is what drove the first large waves of traffic.
Nbadiscussion in its current form is MILES better than NBA talk
Well the entire point of r/nbadiscussion was for elevated basketball conversation. Essentially it was meant to be the “true” version of r/nba, i.e. no nephews allowed.
Nba talk is probably the worst nba related sub there’s even more casuals and dumbasses there than here
Yeah, before r/nbatalk spin-off, I really enjoyed r/nbadiscussion. The moderation helped keep it legit discussion, but there was enough people that you could browse it daily with new content.
Ever since the schism, r/nbadiscussion content is not enough and r/nbatalk is just nephew takes… it really sucks, all cuz that one a-hole mod.
And r/nbadiscussion and r/justbasketball and some others
I think the idea is to get away from the meme/circlejerk/perk/Stephen A nature of this sub but they just end up either dead or the same stuff.
At this point, it’s initial purpose has been lost. It’s pretty much just where you go after you get banned from /r/nba
A hub for contrarians and idiots
A lot of the past “analytics” arguments favor SGA though lol.
It’s really just that there are clearly a number of voters who will pick Jokic every single year, and work backwards from that into some logic that contradicts previous votes.
SGA leads in EPM actual wins
also LEBRON
SGA appears to lead Jokic in advanced stats as well (not all, but enough)
Analytics wouldn’t point to Jokic lmao
Doesn’t SGA win in analytics too? I feel the people who vote Jokic first are just biased.
Shai leads the analytics too
Most NBA voters are not thinking this deep. Jokic just had too many narratives going against him. Even dropping to fourth at some point which had no bearing in reality.
Voters that followed the season are gonna have Jokic or SGA 1st or 2nd.
Voters that followed the narratives are gonna have SGA 1st or 2nd because he never had any narratives against him. Any poor showing or injury he had wasnt felt due to OKC always being the 1st seed. And other candidates are gonna vary greatly.
For example. Both Jokic and SGA missed quite some time. It worked heavily against Jokic but it didnt even become a talking point for SGA.
I could see Jokic have votes from 1-5. Hell, someone didnt even have him on the strawpoll ballot only like 2 weeks ago. Again, because of narrative.
SGA is gonna win this handily but if we only had voters that followed the entire season then he still most likely would have won due to OKC’s dominance but it would have been much, much closer.
Isn’t analytics still sga? I think jokic just has the counting stats
Peak over two-way could be an argument to put SGA third.
People are voting Jokic because they want him to win and will make up whatever justification they need.
Maybe people that actually watch basketball would vote Wemby? How do you quantify altered shots, defensive switchability, interior presence forcing kick outs, etc. I swear nobody watches the fucking games anymore and just wants to look at stats on basketball reference
The argument for Wemby is that he might be the “Most Valuable Player” right now, meaning that his combination of current and expected future impact makes him hold the highest actual (trade) value right now.
It’s a good thing MVP has literally nothing to do with stuff beyond that particular season. That isn’t an argument at all worth discussing
“Literally nothing” is a strong phrase for an award with literally no official definition or voting guidelines. If a voter decides “most valuable player” means literally “the player who holds the highest overall value right now”, nothing can stop him from voting for Wemby.
When in history has mvp meant this?
The question was what criteria could hypothetical nba awards panel voter use to vote for someone other than SGA and Joker. I just provided one possible line of thinking different from the echo chamber consensus.
And in doing so generated one of the most ridiculous views of MVP I’ve ever heard.
Wemby stans are quickly gaining on Jokic stans as the most obnoxious people on this subreddit.
Unless “analytics” is limited to points+rebounds+assists, Wemby should be first or at the minimum second since he’s leading in on/off and most advanced analytics.
ESPN advanced that they use in predicting MVP had Shai number 1 with a wide margin.
It’s called Net Points and it factors in what you actually did on the court, so it’s a good barometer for MVP since it isn’t a per minute or per game stat but rather a cumulative one.
Its crazy how huge is the gap right now. That stat implies that SGA would run away with the MVP.
Wemby doesn’t lead in any metric that accounts for playing time.
I wonder how much of wembys metrics is influenced by the fact he plays a majority of his minutes against opposing benches. He has the 3rd most 2nd q minutes and most 4th q minutes. Usually starters rest during the first 6 ish minutes of the 2nd and 4th.
As rotations tighten up I wonder if his impact will reduce. Gonna be interesting to watch.
Ballot has not even been sent out yet
gotta read the spreadsheet, OP is tracking who has an official vote as well as anyone who’s made public statements about who they’re voting for
Anyone tracking the other awards? CBS’ NBA staff voted like 5-1 for Jaime Jaquez Jr over Keldon Johnson. That is my MVP race 😭
As a UCLA fan, Jaime winning 6MOY is also my MVP race
same link, different tabs
Thanks! Didn’t see them at the bottom the first time
Look at all those votes for Kon in the ROY tab 👀
Has there a been a verdict on if Doncic is eligible? I see that he’s in the votes.
Bill Simmons said he still doesn’t know whether he can write him in for All-NBA.
There is not. Which is why the due date has been pushed.
Good observation. I don’t think he’s eligible yet.
No, but these aren’t formal votes. Just what voters say they will do.
Jokic another top 2 finish. We will take it
[deleted]
This is the worst kind of NBA fan. Just obsessed with one player at the expense of enjoying the sport.
Nah. you can argue last year. The Embiid year was day light robbery. This year SGA earned it. Had Jokic not been injured and took essentially 2 months to ramp back up we could have a discussion, but we don’t live in what if’s.
aaaand its all over folks!
Is there one of these for DPOY? I’m way more interested if Wemby will get the deserved unanimous one
On this very same doc
thanks bro
Thompson has the same defensive EPM while playing more games and being on a better defensive team so I doubt Wemby gets unanimous
That’s by far Thompson’s best impact metric showing, Wemby is either slightly but more noticably ahead or destroys him in a host of others like LEBRON, DARKO, RAPM, DWS.
Thompson does not have the same defensive epm as Wemby. Wemby was clearly ahead for the whole season in defensive epm and is still ahead. Thompson has played more games but plays less minutes than Wemby per game. Wemby also leads him in basically every single advanced stat/all in one metric. There is also such a thing called watching games. I dont know anyone who watches both can come out thinking Ausar who i think is the best perimeter defender is more impactful than Wemby defensively.
Well for starters the number of games and minutes played are irrelevant in EPM. And they were tied as of prior to the last game but Wemby is a marginal 0.2 points ahead now. Don’t get your panties in a bunch, I do watch games and I think Wemby is the better defender but he is probably not getting unanimous just like the best player doesn’t always get unanimous mvp, not even prime lebron or MJ. Things like games played and overall team defense will be a factor.
You are the one who brought up the point about playing more games which was irrelevant to begin with and now you are shitting your diapers when i brought up the point of Wemby playing more minutes. Also they were not tied prior to the last game lol. If anything Wemby had a bigger lead on Thompson and has held the lead for quite some time. Again he has the lead in basically every all in one metric too.
I dont know why you are comparing mvp to dpoy. Mvp races are way more closer generally and have way more narrative involved. Things like actual impact on winning is the biggest factor and there is no player who is close to Wemby in terms of defensively. Spurs are also 3rd defensively and Wemby has played only 30 minutes less than Ausar overall. Good chance Wemby will win it unanimously unless some voter is trying to be a contrarian.
Don’t look at Michael Pina’s DPOY votes, you’ll get a headache.
no chance in hell that it will be unanimous (but it should be)
Am I crazy or does Wemby only have 64 games played and should not be eligible to receive a single vote?
nba cup
Creepy
why?
Is this confirmed or is it based off of assumptions?
Well if you look at the document it does have proof
right but there’s nothing stopping a voter from changing their mind last minute? so
This document has been almost entirely accurate since 2017 when someone made it to predict the Westbrook vs. Harden MVP voting
oh damn i never knew about this then that’s sick
Best player on best team = SGA Most valuable player = Jokic
Shai solo’d the nuggets with all of our starters hurt lol he was way more valuable than Jokic that game
I expected more for Wemby to be honest. His efficiency with his defensive metrics is unheard of in history while playing with no one close to all NBA caliber.
20 years from now and people will think that all voters of this era were dumb
That not true no more than ppl make gripes about Bill Russell winning over Wilt when he averaged 50
I’m shocked Wemby not getting more first place votes.
Shai had better advanced stats, better team record, and played more games.
It’s just the way media talks about Wemby I was sure he’d get a bunch even if he ain’t win. Media guys vote for MVP
They’re doing it for engagement, not their actual opinion. Shai had MVP locked up since February but randomly in March an article put Wemby 1st on the ladder. It’s only because the MVP race had become “boring” at that point since Shai was going to win already.
That actually makes sense
If you believe the media, then you’d think Wemby has had a greater impact on human civilisation than Jesus. It’s all just bullshit to drum up clicks. SGA simply isn’t a particularly out there or marketable star, they need something to keep people engaged.
Gotta prop up the new golden boy for future MVP narratives.
Those are all basically ties though.
Wemby leads the league in EPM, LEBRON, and is 2nd to Jokic in DARKO, Shai has a narrow lead in RAPM, BPM and LAKER, and has a large lead in WS. That’s basically a shrug from the impact metrics on who’s better.
There’s only a 2 game gap in the standings and Shai has only played 4 more games total. Team success and games played historically have only tended to work as tiebreakers when there’s a significant gap between the players, teams winning 67+ games, or gaps of >8-10 between the two.
EPM is generally considered the best overall stat and no Wemby doesn’t lead in EPM, Shai does. You’re looking at expected and not actual. Even if what you said was true, what is the argument for Wemby if impact stats are a wash but Shai leads marginally in the other areas?
https://dunksandthrees.com/epm
Wemby: 8.8
Shai: 8.5
What is the argument for Wemby if impact stats are a wash but Shai leads marginally in the other areas?
An argument for Wemby that I think should get him multiple first place votes (but I don’t think is a great enough argument for him to win the award) would look something like:
*Shai’s contributions on offense are captured with a high degree of accuracy, Wemby’s defensive contributions are not
*I believe that Wemby’s historic defensive impact is on the high end of estimates/are underrepresented in impact metrics
*OKC’s team success is mainly due to their historically strong defense, which Shai is not a key contributor to (marginal defensive +/- and impact stats, pretty consistently the 3rd best perimeter defender on the court for OKC when he’s on the floor).
*The difference between 62 and 64 wins is marginal, so I will reward Wemby more because I believe that he is more instrumental to getting his team to 62 wins than Shai is in getting his team to 64.
This is done every year
It tracks every vote tbh. I’m particularly interested in the Coach of the Year and Rookie of the Year votes, those will be dogfights.
You’re surprised that a basketball fan is interested in seeing who will win awards? Damn man, you’re on the wrong sub.
The awards won’t be immediately told to us in a week man, this ain’t the old NBA. It’ll take basically a month to see who will win all of these.
I like to see who is trending in the votes to see who has a better chance of winning the award, it takes longer than me writing this comment to check it every couple of days lol
Average Sonics fan
You lost your NBA team to that shit hole lol
“Your state”. Lmao. You just happen to be there.
Would be Jokic if he didn’t miss 1 month and play badly for a second month when he came back.
But he did do those things, so I begrudgingly accept SGA
Shai also missed like 15 games
Thunder would be sitting at 68+ wins if he played
It’s more about the month that Jokic came back and sucked.
Shai didn’t have that issue. Jokic had to come back while not fully ready and it was painfully obvious that he wasn’t fully ready.
I feel like this is just scrambling to find excuses to try to claim SGA’s MVP is fraudulent
It is, every straw poll this year SGA has been in first.
Jokic was not winning at any point
Just shows the narrative was always SGA. Nothing more.
So if the narrative was always SGA why are people trying to do mental gymnastics lol it was him with 2 buzzer beaters on the rockets to start the season and no one has taken it, in straw polls or betting odds, yet folks say “it’s easily x player instead”
Legit delusion lol
Which is silly. Jokic did something that no one has ever done before, and is way more vital to his team.
He by far is “more valuable”
To start the season SGA was putting up MJ numbers and the team was like 24:1
Jokic was putting up historic numbers but not propelling his team as much
First straw poll SGA won. (This one was close)
Jokic got hurt his team did well, but when he came back his team started doing worse, jokic lost his 3 ball for a bit, his defense was awful.
Okc was doing worse as well, but Shai still dragged the team to wins.
2nd straw poll SGA won
Okc beat Denver in every head to head matchup while missing 5 key players when AG came back. SGA’s efficiency and turnover rate past MJ, the 1 seed is still secured despite all the injuries, Shai continued to drag his team to wins cementing him as clutch player of the year.
Jokic starts to put up video game numbers again but his team is 13 games back from the 1 seed. Denver is falling apart in the clutch and until their recent streak didn’t look all that great
Last straw poll SGA won.
It’s not silly SGA been doing it all year and no matter who’s name you threw in the convo SGA remained at the top
So we’re basing MVP on team wins now? Plus your argument that “when Jokic played bad injured, he team struggled” is not an argument againt Jokic…
Yes mvp has always been about team wins, you’re either 15 or haven’t been paying attention. Jokic and Russ are like the only mvps to win being outside a top 4 team. That’s not going to happen again with jokic
An mvp is about propelling your team to be the best, Shai is clutch player of the year, as a guard is like .5% lower on TS than a historically great jokic His playmaking has gotten better and he doesn’t turn the ball over.
The video game numbers don’t matter if you are 12 games back from 1st place while having the best offense in the league. If jokic played more defense and didn’t lose to bum teams they were 10 point favorites against the convo would look different
If MVP is just best player on the best team, wtf is the point? There shouldn’t even be voting then.
When youre AVERAGE is a triple double on the season, and you cant even “be in contention” for MVP, theres something wrong with the system.
Is this your first season following NBA lol?
Im saying if we keep going as best player on best team, dont even bother with the vote or the award.
maybe you’re overly sensitive then, because I haven’t said anything negative about SGA
“I begrudgingly accept SGA”
Throwing stones then hiding hands
Shai was ahead before that anyway
No he wasn’t. Jokic was literally #1 on the ladder and had higher advanced stats before injury
the ladder is one guy’s opinion
He was like a -800 when Jokic went down lmao
LOL- he was at worst a top 10 player in the NBA, even if he wasn’t up to his normal standards.
Thats a silly assumption. They lost 12 games with Shai.
SGA should be get an Emmy before another MVP.
An Emmy would reward awful flopping. I think you mean a Razzie.
He’s good at getting the calls. He looks ridiculously laughable doing it. Help me ID the correct award?
Whoever gave Wemby an 1st place vote needs to have their vote removed. Its either FTA or Jokic.
Luka does not deserve the MVP
do you have a reading comprehension?
lol he’s saying bc FTA should really be Luka in his mind. I think it should really be Deni, but regardless, the person above saying “it’s either FTA or Jokic” just really sounds unhinged bc how you gonna call him FTA and say he deserves MVP?
Why not, I also think he sucks to watch and the NBA should do something to prevent that kind of playstyle. But untill they do, he is clearly the MVP. Player should not be punished because he is using the rules to his advantage
FTA is so funny! Did you know Jokic had more free throws this year?
No he didn’t know that. Because it’s a lie. SGA had over 100+ more free throws and this stat is readily available for you to go look at.
Yeah what was that guy talking about lol it was Deni then Luka then Shai then Jokic like another 10 spots down
If we don’t clear out the less than 58 games people, Shai actually finished 4th in FTA per game this season.
If we clear those out, then Shai is at 3rd while Jokic is at 9th. Nikola had an underrated FTr season this year.
He meant it’s either Luka or Jokic if it’s about free throws
This tight race is insanity. Joker hands down. No player in the history of the league managed to get to the top of leaderboards of points and assists in their whole career. And the joker did it in the same year.
Edit: I made a mistake writing. I wanted to write rebounds and assists.
Haven’t Russ and Harden led the league in points one year and assists another?
I made a mistake: rebounds and assists not points and assists. Can I edit my original post?
wilt led in all three, and almost certainly in blocks
Not how the stats are kept in the modern NBA, but I do agree totals is how the modern NBA should track stats.
chubby cant protect the rim sry
Last year’s rebound leader and assist leadere were injured this year