Impact Metrics Applied to the 2025-26 MVP Race
With so much of this year’s MVP discussion centering around impact instead of traditional box score stats, I thought it’d be instructive to see what some of the most popular impact metrics tell us about the race.
DunksandThree’s Estimated Wins:
Source: https://dunksandthrees.com/epm/actual
Bball Index’s Sum WAR:
Source: https://www.bball-index.com/lebron-application/
Neil Paine’s LAKER (derived from FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR metric):
4a. Donovan Mitchell - 10.0
4b. Victor Wembanyama - 10.0
4c. Luka Doncic - 10.0
Source: https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/2025-26-nba-elo-forecast-and-player
ESPN’s Net Points WAR:
2a. Luka Doncic - 12.2
2b. Nikola Jokic - 12.2
Kawhi Leonard - 10.9
Donovan Mitchell - 9.9
Victor Wembanyama - 9.6
Source: https://espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts
Average ranking for the four candidates:
There are still roughly ten games left in the season for these numbers to shake around. There are other impact metrics out there as well; feel free to post those stats in the comments.