he’ll do it in the last game of his career

He’s waiting to do this for his last game, for sure

I want to know what’s the origin story for real, I know about the 27/7/7 stat meme but not why that statline specifically

I asked r/theydidthemath and they told me to shut the fuck up

no actually that’s not true, but someone should ask ‘em

I mean the fact that this line has been done many times, and multiple players have done it twice, while Lebron has played more games than some of them combined, is crazy

take any AI math with a grain of salt, but I asked claude because it’s 7AM and I didn’t want to do the math to start my morning lol

“calculate the probability of LeBron James having never recorded a game in the NBA with exactly 27 points, exactly 7 rebounds, and exactly 7 assists. assume a normal distribution of LeBron’s career averages of 26.9ppg, 7.5rpg, 7.4apg across 1,604 career games”.

Its response was that the probability of him recording it in any single game as 0.0673%, so the probability of him never recording it once in 1604 career games would be about 34%. obviously there are plenty of other factors and the distribution of his stats wouldn’t simply be a normal distribution, but the number would be somewhere around there.

Okay so here’s a simplified stab at it, just using the single-stat numbers in the OP title:

Lebron has played 1604 regular-season games. Given the stats in the OP title, that means

5.11% of the time he hits 27 points

14.28% of the time he hits 7 rebs

13.72% of the time he hits 7 asts

Assuming all of these stats are independent of each other (which they’re not but this is just a simplification), then the chance of him getting 27-7-7 on any given night is the three percentages multiplied together, or 0.1001% .

The chance of him NOT getting 27-7-7 is 99.8999% on any given night.

So the chance of him not getting 27-7-7 for 1604 games in a row is that number to the 1604th power, which gives a final result of 20.1%.

So the probability of him not yet having 27-7-7, given his tendencies, is 20.1%. So overall unusual that he hasn’t gotten it yet, but not extremely farfetched.

Edit: fixed a percentage error

Iirc there are plenty of top players in history that have never recorded the exact statline of their career average so I don’t think it’s as rare as people think

How are you coming up with those % chances. If you’re just saying its because he has scored exactly 27 points 5% of the time, but that doesnt mean in the next game he has a 5% chance of scoring 27 points.

I mean something that has an 85% chance of happening over an incredibly large sample not happening is noteworthy.

In the 60s 27/7/7 would probably get you benched. NBA goes through cycles of high pace and low pace I guess.

I wish we could have seen prime Lebron in the modern game. Seeing as he averaged 29/8/7 as a 38 year old which is pretty much a couple year passed washed age for most players, and 30 a game as a 37 y/o, I can’t help but think he could have averaged a more efficient 35-40 point near triple double with his peak athleticism.

It’s exactly 7 rebounds but I ran out of characters