[Thinking Basketball] Why no one could average 50 today
Here is a TLDW - Basically, defenses wont let individual players score that many points.
Only 5 times in NBA history has a player averaged more than 40% of his teams points while on the court, and only once more than 41% (MJ in 1987)
even if teams score more total nowadays, the % of team points a player scores doesnt increase. embiid scored 39% of the sixers points while he was on the court in 2022 and 2023, but he still only averaged 33ppg.
basically in order to average 50 ppg a player would need to play 48mpg and also score about 45% of a teams points. that % of team scoring has never been close to happening in the history of the game. And no player has even averaged more than 40mpg in over a decade
Yeah that team scoring percentage stat really puts it in perspective. Even with higher pace and more possessions, defenses are just too good at scheming to take away one guy now.
Maybe they discussed this example, but that’s not as good reasoning as it may seem.
Best scoring season of modern era was 2019 Harden, 36.1ppg. The thing is, his 3P% was just decent that season. If he shoot 3P similarly to Steph in the same season, he would have +3ppg by that alone. 39ppg. If Rockets played on league average pace that season? 40.
And Harden scored barely over 30% of Rockets points that season. If he scored 39%, like Embiid 2022, 2023? Without even adjustment to shooting I did he would have 44ppg. Add 3 points if he had Steph efficiency? 47ppg. Adjust pace? 48.
Few minor tweaks and it turned out we could have been on verge of 50 just a few years ago. Without 48mpg 45% of points. Heck, we could get 40ppg with just 1 minor change of Harden being more efficient shooter.
I don’t think that we will see 50ppg with all load managment etc. but it’s not as unlikely as it may seem if some player will e.g. find new FT exploit like Harden did.
“Something that has never even been close to happening in the history of the game”
My friend, Wilt averaged 54ppg for a season.
bad wording, i fixed it now. i meant no player has scored 45% of his teams points. in the season wilt averaged 50.1 ppg he scored 40.1% of his teams points while playing 48.5mpg. his team averaged 125.4ppg that year
And that’s on roughly 40 FGA per game. Which is like double most volume scorers
50.4. But yeah.
I have literally zero idea why this is being downvoted. It is factually accurate
Fantastic video by the Goats as usual, they’re just so good at explaining stuff.
Sucks their podcast is just okay because their videos are stellar
What do you not like about the podcast?
“because their opponents aren’t only plumbers and milkmen”
Legit this shit is garbage. Why not make a video on why anyone can’t average 40? Because it’s more realistic?? Trash.
Did they actually say anythingh like that or are you answering imaginary scarecrows?
There have only been 10 seasons of 35+ ppg. 3 (harden, kobe, and rick barry) players managed this 1 time, MJ did it 2 time, and wilt did it 5 times. Only 2 seasons of 40+ ppg, both Wilt. And 1 season of 50+ ppg, again wilt.
It’s really, really hard to average 35+ ppg. So yea 50 is basically next to impossible.
I also think it’s notable that ppl say players are better now and it’s easier to score but it’s been almost 40y since someone even got 37ppg.
People were worse at offense back then too. The reasoning goes both ways
We’re saying the same thing.
Way harder now also because teams highly value efficiency (which obviously lowers when you increase shots, so teams would rather have multiple 60+ TS, 20-point scorers than a 54 TS, 50-point scorer like Wilt), and movement is way up (teams cover more distance on the court now than they’ve ever had)
Is it because it’s too many points? Tomorrow on [Thinking Basketball], why no one could average 40 rebounds today.
(You’ll never guess what they have to say about averaging 30 assists next week!)
The answer is even shorter than a whole video: defenses would double team a “main option” guy until he inevitably couldn’t reliably get 50 every game.
Sheeeeet, 35 won’t happen
Didn’t Luka average 34 per game a couple of years ago
If we put prime harden on a terrible team where they just fed him the ball we could get to 50
Why would anyone do that? Harden would be exhausted too and it would end up being terrible for his team
I don’t know, maybe in an alternate universe where harden is drafted to the pistons or something.
Point is, prime harden averaged 40 for 4 months. He could raise that to 50 if he really only aimed for stats and there were no offensive options on his team
Those 4 months harden was handling virtually every possesion while on the court as it was
Increase his minutes even more or have him shot even more and you would make him break from exhaustion
That literally already happened, that’s the whole point of the video. He averaged 37.
Why do people wanna comment without even watching the video? I’ll never understand
The video literally explained why it wont happen lmaoooo
If anyone were to do it they’d have to be a freight train and an unstoppable scorer like a Bron or a Shaq a goat tier guy. It wouldn’t be a volume chucker like Kobe or MJ, the latter of whom could barely stay above 30 some seasons with 12 FTAs in a much weaker era and getting stern gifts of FT trips
dafuq have you been smokin’?
he still sad about the ‘89 playoffs lol
They’re a cavs fan, no wonder they hate MJ so much. I think lebron hate is too much, but bro seems like a lebron stan and a pro MJ hater.
he had 12 ftas one year, 1987, and averaged 37. he averaged over 30 for his career, which only he and wilt have done, on 8 fta per game.
I don’t think anyone will ever average 50 again, but late ’80s and early ’90s MJ and 2006 Kobe would probably average 42–45 PPG.
edit: 42-45 is probably too high, but 40 may have been possible. It wouldn’t be winning basketball though.
Please tell me how Kobe’s averaging 7-10 more PPG.
Purely based on possessions / game he’d be around 39 at the same points/possession rate, not factoring in the increased spacing and more optimized offenses of 2025. It’s not impossible that the improved shot quality adds 3 points a game on top of the pace increases.
If you’re updating all that then he’s also not shooting that many shots.
Why not? More possessions and smarter offense doesn’t make it a better option for his worse teammates to start taking shots away from him.
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But his efficiency would be worse.
Can see this sub is young. Kobe or even bron played most of their career in dead ball era. Scoring 25 back then was way harder than today. Spacing was a myth and all teams were rostering multiple rim protectors and possession were slow af.
OK and? You old heads just be regurgitating the same irrelevant nonsense. What does that have to do with Kobe’s 3pt %? Or are you gonna say he would be a much better 3pt shooter today? I can pull up open looks numbers too. The math just doesn’t add up unless you’re saying he’d be a completely different player today in terms of shot selection, efficiency, etc. which yeah nobody can argue with purely imaginary things.
Wilt averaging 200 in today’s NBA.
He already had 6.475 3pt attempt/gm that season, let’s just say he takes a 2025 league leading massive 12 3pt attempt/gm (which he wouldn’t), almost 1 more 3pt attempt per game than Steph, and he takes these instead of taking 2s, he would only get 5.5 more PPG if he made every single one, which he wouldn’t.
He’s not hitting 40 unless he takes more shots, which is also not happening because he was already at a whopping 27.16 FGA/game that season compared to 2025 league leading 21.8. If you’re adjusting era and he’s taking many more 3s today than back then, then he’s also not taking as many shots as back then.
I like Kobe as a player but this shit is just not realistic.
I’m guessing you didn’t watch the video, but they run a hypothetical situation for what the rough maximum for scoring averages would be in the current era.
The highest % of total points they have on record is ‘19 Harden when Paul was injured. If you carried that level of offensive load, while playing roughly 40 minutes (slightly more than Tyrese Maxey is doing), you’d average roughly 43 points per game.
So your guess is good, but he also points out that this isn’t winning basketball, carries high injury risk, and would only happen if there were no other offensive threats on the team. MJ and Kobe scored less in their seasons that they won rings in.
Would also recommend you watch the video if you didn’t already. It’s pretty good.
I just thought it was funny that your original estimate was actually possible.
Funnily enough, there’s a famous video here where Kobe criticises Harden from that exact season by saying that he’s not playing winning basketball. Let me say again, Kobe himself thought that ‘19 Harden was too much of a ball hog.
Not like there was much else for Harden to do with CP3 out. That roster was built for James and Chris to go my turn-your turn on iso.
a player would need to play 48 mpg in order to realistically average those numbers. not happening
Nah
No shot. 80s/90s MJ would sit close to 12-14 in today’s league, especially since stern isn’t going to give him 12 FTAs per game. 06 Kobe would have around 24 or so. Maybe 15 or 16 Bron if he took the volume could hit it but that’s about it
Stat nerds can’t tell me that actual players are wrong.
Actual players are sometimes dumb af. They respect ball hogs over team players all the time.
Just listen to someone like Paul Pierce talk about basketball for a few minutes, and you’ll see.
Ya but between a dumb player and random statistician on the Internet, I’ll probably listen to the former more often than the latter. There are exceptions tho ofc
Yeah I’d say this guy in an exception. Even the NBA has brought him on to give his analysis. He’s probably among the best who make content
Literally statisticians made many players obsolete and have them playing in China lol. Current statisticians will tell you Boogie and Simmons and viable anymore. Where they at?
If you really need a statistician to tell you that post achilles tear Boogie and Brick Simmons are not NBA caliber players then you got bigger problems lol
Huh? Simmons is unplayablr because he cant shoot which is literally fcking statistics driven.
They are non NBA calibre players because stats say so. Boogie’s defense was stupid which is stats. His offensive metrics are stupid. And he makes his teammates worse.
Lots of players are now not in the league because stats. Players get demoted based on stats.
Your argument falls apart because you said you trust DUMB players and I gave you DUMB players who think they are still nba players but were released by the team because they are not. Pat Bev thinks he can still play in the NBA. But teams are not getting him literallt bec stats and eye test of coaching staff analyzed he isnt worth the money.
Thinking Basketball also uses its eye not just stats.
You are contradicting your own sht lmao
Life stupid and basketball stupid are two different things.
Paul Pierce knows basketball better than any statistician.
He literally said he was better than Dwyane Wade. He also said other ridiculous things, like “Duke could beat the worst NBA team,” ranked LeBron outside the top five, and claimed that Kobe was never the face of the league.
And don’t even get me started on Kendrick Perkins, he may be dumber than Pierce when it comes to basketball takes.
He’s not
True
Also true.
Kendrick Oerkins I stupid(and sometimes exaggerates it because $) but he still knows ball better than someone whose never played it
Did you say Duke could beat the worst nba team?
So if lebron or durant who are better come and say pierce opinions are worthless does that mean you switch your opinion then?
If shaq comes and says he would average 70 do you take him at his word?
All 3 of your examples have known issues with the truth.
But they are better players so why wouldnt they know better?
Oh so now you know the truth better than those players??????
So what do you do when different players say different opinions?
I take their experience into account vs the topic of discussion.
Personal numbers, I doubt. Speaking on others(and depending on their relationship with the other) I take their expertise and experience at face value.
So you think Iverson would average 43?
Ok
It’s like telling me you can hit a bullseye 10x in a row having never thrown a dart.
But no one is saying that are they
Shaq and Barkley said the Warriors aint winning a chip as a jumpshooting team and teams wont shift toward that. Now, the traditional big man who cant shoot and defend are almost obsolete and shooting is at a premium.
Players are not Einstein. They can be dumb af. Ant literally has a ton of baby mamas.
Yeah as we see every year with the players being even worse then the fans when it comes to all star voting
Numbers don’t lie. Egos do.
“There’s three types of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
Yes stats can be used to twist things. No that doesn’t mean ignore any form of statistics in favor of blindly following ethos, especially in the NBA. NBA players have said very ignorant things as well, so using them as an absolute truth over stats is, well ignorant.
Thinking Basketball has literally worked with actual NBA players so your point is moot.
No it isn’t and good day.
Bro just said nuh uh😭 W bait, almost had me. Good day.