Looking throughout league history, the outlook looks extraordinarily bleak for lower playoff seeds, and pretty conclusively refutes the idea that the regular season does not matter.

The only exceptions were the 4th seeded 1969 Celtics in Bill Russell’s last year, and the 1995 Rockets with Hakeem, both of which were defending champions.

https://www.landofbasketball.com/championships/champions_by_seed.htm

nowhathappenedwas | NBA

40 | 5 hours ago

It used to be incredibly rare for a non-top 3 seed to even make the finals. Only four teams did it from 1985 to 2017.

It’s now happened 3 straight years and 5 of the last 8 years.

HokageEzio | Knicks

15 | 4 hours ago

The 7 and 8 seed didn’t even exist until 1984. Top 2 seeds got a bye. The modern playoff format is not that old.

Kheltosh | Pistons

11 | 4 hours ago

Ahem… That’s four decades ago :)

HokageEzio | Knicks

4 | 4 hours ago

Yeah but the league is 80 years old. The merger is 50 years old. It’s not that long ago in the grand scheme of things.

Cpt_Underpantz

3 | 4 hours ago

Interesting and awesome comment! Maybe things are changing. Durability is more important than ever, maybe?

jdd32

9 | 4 hours ago

Injuries/durability definitely a factor. But I think there’s clearly more Parity than ever. Fans bitch a lot but man this era has made the playoffs as a whole so much more fun to watch.

Besides the new CBA making it easier for teams to keep their drafted stars, there’s also more talent to spread around in a league that hasn’t added teams. Most of that influx from international growth. 4 total mvp’s prior to Giannis’ first were to international players. Now we’re at 7 straight internationally, with 4 of the (general) consensus top 5-6 players being international.

EarthWarping | NBA

25 | 5 hours ago

Top 3 seed is a better indicator than the Phil rule imo.

Pickleskennedy1

31 | 5 hours ago

Based on this sub you would think it was one of Phil’s core beliefs that he talked about for years. It was just something he wrote in a book one time

lalakingmalibog | Mavericks

7 | 3 hours ago

Phil Jackson also wrote “11 champ;ipnsikp[ ringhs” that one time

LTIRfortheWIN | Spurs

1 | 2 hours ago

Its just a box to check, not a necessity

Round_Clock_3942

13 | 5 hours ago

It’s basically the exact same thing though. 40-20 is 55 win pace. Minimum 55 wins basically makes you a top 3 seed.

Eastern_Antelope_832

3 | 5 hours ago

Nah, because seeding doesn’t take into account quality of conference. There have been 1-seeds that have won as few as 50 games, such as the 2003 Pistons. That year, 50 wins would’ve been the 7th seed out West, so the top-3 seed in the East that year was not a good indicator.

Also, there’ve been eight different 1 seeds that bowed out in the 2nd round or earlier since 2018:

2025 Cavs, 2024 OKC, 2023 Bucks (1st round), 2022 Suns, 2021 Jazz, 2021 Sixers, 2020 Bucks, and 2018 Raptors. So while a high seed was doing great, another high seed was coming up well short of expectations.

Pickleskennedy1

2 | 5 hours ago

Historically though, seeding and who you play to get through has been more predictive

Eastern_Antelope_832

1 | 4 hours ago

I think at some point, historical trends become less applicable due to changing strategies such as load management. IMO, this has increased the prevalence of soft high seeds.

Historical-Swing4333 | Cavaliers

1 | 4 hours ago

That and the average player being much more skilled now than they were 20+ years ago

Obvious_Parsley3238

1 | 5 hours ago

It’s more accurate, but fewer teams satisfy the 40-20 rule which is what makes it cool.

rapshaveonechip

1 | 4 hours ago

Well its ³⁄₈ of the playoff pool whereas Phil’s rule is usually what ³⁄₁₆?

nba2k11er | Warriors

6 | 5 hours ago

It can be a little annoying, when your team is the 1 seed, and people start complaining about an easy path.

GregEgg4President | Wizards

11 | 5 hours ago

You play the teams put in front of you. That’s all there is to it. No championship comes easy.

Fuck the haters.

thepeachgod | Celtics

1 | 4 hours ago

You don’t say

MyPhillyAccent | Celtics

5 | 4 hours ago

This just makes me think about how we got robbed of an epic Game 7 when Hally got hurt. Would’ve been the most epic Finals run by a player ever.

Titronnica | SAS

4 | 3 hours ago

And you still have folks here insisting that the regular season doesn’t matter.

Confident-Factor-489 | Timberwolves

2 | 5 hours ago

Fuck

Sko_Neezy

2 | 5 hours ago

Have to think the new cap will lead to the end of this streak due to more parity, narrower gaps between teams, seeds meaning a little bit less. Nearly happened last year.

moby323 | 76ers

1 | 4 hours ago

What about teams that made it to the finals but didn’t win?

Pickleskennedy1

1 | 4 hours ago

It’s the link in the post. As another comment pointed out that’s become more common the last ten years. Still though, in 80 years only five teams that weren’t a top four seed have made the finals, and that includes the 2020 Heat who didn’t have to deal with the typical effect of not having home court

runevault | Nuggets

1 | 4 hours ago

Main reason a team that isn’t a top 3 seed might win it this year is health issues during the season but managing to avoid them during the playoffs. Like if the Nuggets ended up as the 4 or 5 seed but are fully healthy and got their shit together and won it would not be the biggest surprise, while also not really being a knock against the top 3 seed thing because the team has just been so injured this year.

666uptheirons | TOR

1 | 7 minutes ago

66% of the time, it works EVERY time

Genericthrowaw4y | Thunder

0 | 4 hours ago

Basically what I’m hearing is Denver, Minny, and Cleveland have no chance and OKC is going to repeat and establish official status of dynasty

NYState_of_Mind | Knicks

2 | 3 hours ago

Need 3 for dynasty status