[OC] I statistically analyzed every play of the season to determine who was the biggest Foul Merchant
Since I have been seeing so much discussion around who is the biggest foul merchant especially with SGA’s MVP I decided to try and dig into it statistically to see who in fact is the biggest foul merchant.
To do this I grabbed every play from this season (and last season) and built a Merchant Index based on their shot profile, how often they get fouled, non shooting fouls, and offensive fouls.
I built a site to explain and list all the methodology here - https://nbafoulmerchant.com/ - no ads or anything just made for fun.
The main way I calculated is by analyzing every single shot attempt by each player, then categorizing them into different areas, Restricted area, paint, mid range, corner 3, and above the break 3. Each of these attempts has a different likelihood of ending in a foul - something like a corner 3 gets fouled extremely rarely compared to in the restricted area. Then using that I built an “average” expected amount of free throws for each player to get given where they shoot and how often they shoot. Then looked at how many ACTUAL free throws they have been getting in the games. Clearly some are getting the whistle more than average…
If you want to take a look at the full list, look up any player, or look at the players shot charts you can see it here at the site!