The reason I consider them a serious contender is because they are one of the very best teams in the league.

Usually, the championship is won by one of the best teams.

I think there’s a deeper case to be made here, but it all kind of circles around to that they win the possession battle.

They average 89.5 FGAs on 54.1% eFG% to their opponents 84.5 on 51.5% and that’s important because of shooting variance in the NBA. So from field goals they are averaging 96.9 ppg to their 87.1, and they do those a 1.9 ppg on FTs but that still leaves them with an average margin of +7.9.

If Detriot shoots at their average, their opponent has to shoot an eFG% of 56.2% to even put the possession advantage.

If Detriots defense holds up but their shooting falters, Detriot’s eFG% would have to fall 49.7% to even out that advantage.

And that just leaves it at an even game. Playing the possession game gives a team such a huge advantage and some insurance against shooting variance. They create possession through offensive boards +1.6 and turnovers +1.9, do it’s going to be hard for teams to put a dent in that advantage.

And anything can happen in a single game but over the course of a 7 game series, the trends do bear out and I think it will for Detriot because they are doing so many things right. We saw this last year in the playoffs and even though OKC’s offense struggled at times, they were still able to win possession battles and eek out tough wins.

Amen brother. Thank you for preaching the good word

Not to nitpick, but feels like half the top 10 teams have a 1A eraser if youre referring to Stewart as such. Spurs with Wemby, OKC with Chet, Wolves with Gobert, Cavs with Mobley. Stewart does get dinged a little because of MPG.

I have them as one of 6 teams that are realistic title contenders.

I don’t think it would be crazy if they got out of the East or something, but outside of the defense, there’s plenty to question.

What happens when teams just force the ball out of Cade’s hands for a series? There really isn’t a second ball handler that you can count on to punish a defense most nights.

It’s also not just that their percentages are iffy from 3, they’re bottom 5 in attempts as well.

Saying other young contenders don’t have playoff experience does nothing to negate Detroit’s lack of experience. Plenty of people would question the Spurs lack of experience as well.

I am worrrried about the Cavs. Let’s just win a first round series okay? 

They’re a menacing team. They have a damn strong culture and identity with a top 5 player leading from the front. I do think they need some playoff experience but they’re the favorites in the East easily. They match up perfectly against New York and well against Boston.

They’re prolly one secondary scorer away from being on the same tier as OKC and Denver but kudos to what they have built..

I think I said this earlier, and I’ll be consistent even after seeing the Pistons continue to win games. I think they are a great team and can be listed as a contender, but I don’t consider them to be a top 5 favorite. So they are a contender but I don’t think they are as serious as what what their win loss record indicates. They can totally prove me wrong though. 

Shooting % doesn’t capture the concern about Detroit’s shooting, because the real concern is spacing in the playoffs. Two of Detroit’s starters are non-shooters, and Holland the backup Forward on the team is effectively a nonshooter. OKC might not be shooting a significantly higher % than Detroit, but they always can have 4 shooters in a lineup.

Games aren’t played on stats nerd! 

They play tough defense, in the playoffs defensive teams take over. Right now it’s looking like it’s gonna be Det vs OKC though I could see the spurs coming out of the west. Knicks have the talent if Kat will man up and play like an actual center instead of like a 6’11 chunky point guard.

The lack of relying on 3 is why I’m hopeful. I don’t know if we win the chip yet, but I’ve seen many teams relying on the 3 go completely cold in the playoffs, which just happens sometimes. But defense never stalls

It depends on what you mean by “serious contender”.

By tiers, I think it goes:

1: OKC, Denver 2a: Detroit, SA, MN 2b: NY, Cle

The Pistons may be the best of the rest, but there are legitimate basketball questions for them.

What happens when teams just let them shoot? They’re not really doing this yet, in the playoffs it’s a different animal.

What happens when teams fast double Cade and force the ball to someone else? Can they punish a 4 on 3?

The Pistons have a lot of 1-way guys (Robinson, Huerter, Holland, Thompson, Stew). And several who have struggled in the past with more responsibility (Harris, LeVert). Will the playoffs expose this?

How will their offense survive when Cade sits? Regular season Vs playoffs is a much different situation.

Will Bickerstaffs shortcomings be exposed?

Cade is really good. But there are some questions here: 3FG% and FTA. How elastic is his game? Kobe and Hakeem were very inelastic offensive players: they weren’t super efficient, but they didn’t really lose efficiency in the playoffs either… It was inelastic. Cade doesn’t have much margin if his efficiency drops due to playoff defenses.

Eastern Conference weakness. It’s a weaker conference, but how much weaker? It conceivably provides an advantage (much easier path to the finals and a possibly tired opponent), but there are questions about schedule difficulty, playoff defense (going Hawks/Celtics/Knicks to OKC/MN/SA is massive defensive culture shock especially on the Finals stage).

Detroit is a serious contender with serious non-health questions, which is why I can’t tier them with OKC or Denver.

That’s cool but the Pistons is the Pistons just like the Browns is the Browns just like the Lions is the Lions.

They’re not gonna win anything in the current age