[Engelmann] I would say that Knueppel is the 4th-best rookie of the past 30 years, based on his performance so far… predict Knueppel to rank squarely among the NBA’s top 20 players — maybe even the top 10 — for about the next decade. He’s already playing at an All-Star level.
Engelmann is the creator of RAPM and it’s successor RPM. He also was one of the few people to make the case for Jokic for Rookie of the Year over KAT/Porzingis: Source
Here is the blog post: “Kon Knueppel: Best Rookie of the Past Three Decades? Advanced stats say it’s close”
Some snippets:
It’s simple: Knueppel appears to be one of the best shooters the NBA has ever seen.
No rookie in history had ever gotten to 100 made 3s as quickly as Knueppel — he needed only 244 attempts, starting his NBA career at a blistering 3-point percentage of 41%. He’s only improved from there, as he’s now up to 43% on 3s, 15th in the league.
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Knowing what we know now, Knueppel should probably have been ranked No. 2 before the 2025 NBA draft, behind only top prospect Cooper Flagg, his college roommate.
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Of the 15 players other than Knueppel, 10 have a career rated in the 95th percentile or better in 30-year RAPM. That’s the kind of company he’s in.
And Knueppel is the fourth-youngest player on the list, older than only Harden, Tatum, and Victor Wembanyama as rookies.
Based on this, we would predict Knueppel to rank squarely among the NBA’s top 20 players — maybe even the top 10 — for about the next decade. He’s already playing at an All-Star level.
To answer the question posed by the headline — and taking age into account — I would say that Knueppel is the 4th-best rookie of the past 30 years, based on his performance so far.