Since the 1976 merger, 48⁄49 championship teams have been top 8 in net rating, and over 80% of championship teams have been top 5. Are these the only contenders left?
These numbers are taken from basketball-reference and any ties are assumed to be the higher rank (if 2 teams tied 5th/6th for net rating, we are saying that team was 5th)
Since 1976-77, nearly every NBA champion has been top 8 in net rating. Only the 1994-95 Rockets ranked lower at 11th.
In these 49 seasons, the vast majority of them were top 5 in net rating. The ones outside the top 5 include the 1978 Bullets, 1994 Rockets, 1995 Rockets, 2001 Lakers, 2006 Heat, 2010 Lakers, 2011 Mavericks, and 2023 Nuggets. 6 of these 8 teams had a top 4 eFG%.
Only the 1978 Bullets and 2010 Lakers did not satisfy those thresholds. the 1978 Bullets finished 44-38 and are the lowest win% of any NBA champion in history. The 2010 Lakers won by 4 points in a game 7 over the Celtics.
It’s safe to say that if you check these 2 metrics, we can narrow down the likely champion of this season
First, top 8 in net rating. Currently it ranks as follows:
At 9th, the Cleveland Cavaliers are 0.4 behind the Nuggets. At 10th, the Phoenix Suns are 1.6 behind the Nuggets.
Of the teams outside the top 5, here are their eFG% rankings
The Cavs and Suns don’t really meet the typical criteria as far as the numbers go, so we can rule them out for now.
Another interesting stat is 12 of the last 14 champions have been top 5 in BOTH Net Rating and eFG%. The 2 that did not, the 2023 Nuggets and 2025 Thunder, were 1st in eFG% and 1st in Net Rating respectively
If we apply this, the only team that is currently top 5 in both are the Oklahoma City Thunder. They currently have the best net rating and 4th in eFG%, while the Nuggets hold the top eFG%.
Also 47 out of the last 49 NBA Champions started at least 32-18. Only 5 were below a top 2 seed by that point. The Thunder, Pistons, Spurs, Celtics and Knicks met that win total by game 50. Every other team did not.
History would indicate the team most likely to win it this year appear to be the Thunder, but there are other contenders perhaps on a tier below like the 3 teams at the top of the East, the Rockets, Spurs, Timberwolves and Nuggets. The Wolves are probably the closest other team to move into top 5 in both.
Here’s a some more statistics:
Thunder (1st Net Rating, 4th eFG%). Of all the championship teams who have ranked 1st in Net Rating, only the 1986 Celtics, 1996 Bulls, 1999 Spurs, 2000 Lakers, 2005 Spurs, 2008 Celtics, 2015 Warriors and 2025 Thunder have also had the number 1 defense to go along with that. Thunder currently lead the league, 2.1 points better than the 2nd place Pistons.
Nuggets (8th Net Rating, 1st eFG%) Of all the champions who have ranked 1st in eFG%, all ranked top 3 in Net Rating except the 2023 Nuggets (6th).
Timberwolves (6th Net Rating, 5th eFG%). Of all the championship teams outside top 5 in Net Rating, only the 1995 Rockets were below a 3 seed. In fact they, and the 1969 Boston Celtics are the only teams below a top 3 seed to ever win the finals.
Rockets (4th Net Rating, 19th eFG%). The only teams to rank this low in eFG% and win a championship are the 1979 SuperSonics, 1998 Bulls, and 2004 Pistons.
Detroit Pistons (2nd Net Rating, 15th eFG%). Only 5 teams have won the finals with an eFG% ranked 15th or lower, and the other teams to make the finals ranked that low include the 1978 SuperSonics, 1979 Bullets (11th in 22 team league), 1981 Rockets (12th in 23 team league), 1990 Trail Blazers, 1994 Knicks, 1999 Knicks, 2001 76ers, 2003 Nets, 2005 Pistons, 2007 Cavaliers, 2023 Heat. Only the 78 Sonics, 94 Knicks and 05 Pistons got it to a 7th game. All 3 of these teams lost game 7 by 6-7 points.
Boston Celtics (3rd Net Rating, 9th eFG%). The only times a team won the finals with an eFG% 9th or lower this century are the 2010 Lakers, 2004 Pistons and 2000 Lakers. The last time a team made it with an eFG% this low was the 2022 Celtics. All of these teams had elite defenses that were within 2 points of the league leading defense and were ranked top 4. The Celtics defense is currently tied for 7th and is 6.2 points behind the Thunder.
New York Knicks (4th Net Rating, 12th eFG%). The Knicks currently have the 13th ranked defense. Of the last 10 finals (3 point era), it is actually quite frequent for a team without a top 10 defense to make the finals. 9 of the last 20 finalists have not had a top 10 defense, however all of these teams had an eFG% in the top 4 except the 2024 Mavericks, who ranked 8th. Of the top 11 in Net Rating this season, only the Nuggets defense ranks lower than the Knicks.
San Antonio Spurs (6th net rating, 14th eFG%). Most teams that win the finals have prior deep playoff experience among their core players. However even with exceptions to the rule (2025 Thunder, 2015 Warriors, 1977 Trail Blazers), the things these teams all have in common are they were 1st in Net Rating.
It’s the Thunder’s back-to-back title to lose, but there have been cracks showing this season with the injuries playing a factor, and the Spurs and Wolves giving them difficulty. Beyond OKC, it feels up in the air for anyone else. There is so much parity, most of the other contenders are exceptions to any rules you can find.