[OC] We always say Jokic secures the bag for his teammates. I looked at it and found who NEEDS bag-securing shooters most
We all talk about how Nikola Jokic gets his teammates PAID. And how some of them move on to brick playing for other teams (shoutout KCP). Now as a Deni Avdija stan the amount of assists his teammates are fumbling got me to flip the question: which of the top playmakers are creating tons of opportunities that their teammates are bricking?
If you’re a shooter looking to secure the bag, who should you try to play with?
Disclaimer - I’m not a stats wizard, and used some AI to crunch these numbers. The formulas used here are pretty basic and don’t factor in advanced stuff like weights, shot difficulty, etc.
| Stat | Definition |
|---|---|
| PA (Potential Assists) | Any pass to a teammate who shoots within 1 dribble of receiving the ball |
| ACR% (Assist Conversion Rate) | Percentage of PA actually converted |
| Wasted | Number of PA that didn’t go in |
| exWasted | Expected Wasted at league average ACR% |
| SMH (Shots Missed by Homies) | Wasted minus exWasted - essentially how many more/less AST you would’ve had at league avg |
| BAG (literally bag) | Where to get your bag. Average rank of PA/Wasted/SMH |
BAG tells you who shooters should want to play with if they want to get paid.
It’s the average of three rankings:
Showing better opportunity for a shooter to come in and feast.
Example:
Filtered by minimum 15 games, 10 potential assists per game - resulting in top 27 PA dishers. League avg ACR% = 54.7%. Table is sorted by BAG
| Rank | Player | Team | AST | PA | Wasted | exWasted | ACR% | SMH | BAG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deni Avdija | POR | 6.6 | 14.2 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 46.5% | +1.2 | 2.7 |
| 2 | Cade Cunningham | DET | 9.7 | 18.4 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 52.7% | +0.4 | 3.0 |
| 3 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | OKC | 6.5 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 48.9% | +0.8 | 5.3 |
| 4 | Devin Booker | PHX | 6.5 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 49.2% | +0.7 | 6.7 |
| 5 | Josh Giddey | CHI | 9.2 | 16.4 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 56.1% | -0.2 | 7.3 |
| 6 | Jalen Johnson | ATL | 8.4 | 14.8 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 56.8% | -0.3 | 9.3 |
| 7 | Jamal Murray | DEN | 6.8 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 52.3% | +0.3 | 9.7 |
| 8 | Nikola Jokić | DEN | 11.1 | 18.1 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 61.3% | -1.2 | 10.7 |
| 9 | Andrew Nembhard | IND | 6.9 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 53.1% | +0.2 | 10.7 |
| 10 | Isaiah Collier | UTA | 6.3 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 51.2% | +0.4 | 11.3 |
| 11 | Darius Garland | CLE | 6.7 | 12.7 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 52.8% | +0.2 | 12.0 |
| 12 | Jalen Brunson | NYK | 6.4 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 52.0% | +0.3 | 12.7 |
| 13 | Tyrese Maxey | PHI | 7.0 | 12.9 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 54.3% | +0.1 | 13.0 |
| 14 | Donovan Mitchell | CLE | 5.4 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 48.2% | +0.7 | 14.0 |
| 15 | Jimmy Butler III | GSW | 4.9 | 10.8 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 45.4% | +1.0 | 14.0 |
| 16 | Keyonte George | UTA | 6.8 | 12.5 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 54.4% | +0.0 | 15.3 |
| 17 | James Harden | LAC | 8.0 | 13.4 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 59.7% | -0.7 | 15.7 |
| 18 | Luka Dončić | LAL | 8.7 | 14.0 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 62.1% | -1.0 | 16.3 |
| 19 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIL | 5.8 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 52.3% | +0.3 | 18.0 |
| 20 | De’Aaron Fox | SAS | 6.1 | 11.3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 54.0% | +0.1 | 18.3 |
| 21 | Davion Mitchell | MIA | 7.2 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 58.5% | -0.5 | 19.3 |
| 22 | Stephon Castle | SAS | 7.0 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 57.9% | -0.4 | 20.3 |
| 23 | LaMelo Ball | CHA | 8.5 | 13.0 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 65.4% | -1.4 | 21.0 |
| 24 | Immanuel Quickley | TOR | 6.4 | 11.1 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 57.7% | -0.3 | 22.0 |
| 25 | Russell Westbrook | SAC | 7.2 | 11.9 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 60.5% | -0.7 | 22.3 |
| 26 | Alperen Sengun | HOU | 6.8 | 11.4 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 59.6% | -0.6 | 22.7 |
| 27 | Ryan Rollins | MIL | 5.8 | 10.0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 58.0% | -0.3 | 24.3 |
As you can see, the data confirms my suspicions - Deni’s teammates are converting at a disgusting 46.5% rate which is 2nd worst in the league behind Jimmy and 8.2% below league average. Having 14.2 PA (#5 in the league) and +1.2 SMH (#1) makes him the top destination for bag chasers at 2.7 BAG.
Right below him is Cade with 3.0 BAG - League leader in both potential and wasted assists, with teammates shooting below average. Malik Beasley punching air rn.
Surprisingly SGA is ranked #3 with 5.3 BAG. is OKC more dependent on him than previously thought? i guess so based on the past 2 weeks.
The only team with 2 top 10 BAGers is Denver with Murray and Jokic at #7 and #8, still might be the top tier bag destination. Other teams with 2 players in the list: CLE (#11, #14), UTA (#10, #16), MIL (#19, #27), SAS (#20, #22)
Who’s teammates are already eating:
negative SMH means teammates are missing less than expected, essentially giving you more AST than usual.
Sources: https://www.nba.com/stats/players/passing?CF=GP*G*15:POTENTIAL_AST*G*10&dir=D&sort=POTENTIAL_AST