Through the early portion of the season, both Nikola Jokić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are putting up numbers that place them not only at the top of the league this year, but among the best statistical starts we’ve seen in the modern tracking era.
Raw Production
| Player |
PTS |
REB |
AST |
Shooting |
TS% (rTS) |
MPG |
| Nikola Jokić |
29.2 |
12.3 |
11.0 |
61 / 41 / 86 |
72% TS (+14 rTS) |
34.9 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
32.6 |
4.6 |
6.5 |
56 / 45 / 88 |
69% TS (+11 rTS) |
33.1 |
Both are scoring like supernovas on all-time efficiency while also running two of the best offenses in the sport. That’s already nuts.
But the impact metrics make it look even more absurd.
Backpicks BPM (the most respected box-score impact model we have)
- Jokić ’26 → On pace for the best season on record, by a mile.
- 20% higher than the previous #1, which was… 2025 Nikola Jokić.
- Shai ’26 → On pace for the second-best season ever,
- beating the old ‘25 Jokic record by ~9%.
This is the equivalent of two runners smashing Usain Bolt’s 100m record at the same time. (For clarification, this is Thinking Basketball’s own box model, NOT the frequently cited and widely derided Basketball Reference BPM.)
RAPM (the gold standard for long-term impact)
- Jokić ’22–’26 → 3rd-best five-year peak in the RAPM database.
- Shai ’22–’26 → Already knocking on the door of top-25 peaks ever, despite half of those years being pre-prime.
And if you isolate Shai’s actual peak (“’24–’26” and extending forward assuming pace holds):
- Shai ’24–’28 would tie for the 10th-best peak stretch ever recorded, using 5-year samples.
EPM (Estimated Plus-Minus)
- Shai ’26 → On pace for the #1 single-season EPM ever recorded.
- Jokić ’26 → On pace for the #5 best season ever.
LEBRON (BBall Index)
- Shai ’26 → Tracking for the 2nd-best LEBRON season ever, behind only 2010 LeBron James.
- Jokić ’26 → Tracking for #3 all-time, behind 2010 LeBron and 2026 Shai.
Darko (time-series RAPM estimator)
- Jokić → currently having the 8th-best peak in the database.
- Shai → currently having the 14th-best peak in the database.
AuPM (luck-adjusted RAPM variant)
- Jokić ’26 → On pace for the 3rd-best AuPM single season ever.
- Shai ’26 → On pace for the 8th-best AuPM single season ever.
Bottom line
We are watching:
- The best box-score season ever (Jokić ’26)
- The 2nd-best box-score season ever (Shai ’26)
- Both translating to historically elite levels across every trusted RAPM-family impact metric
- Both producing scoring seasons with efficiency that borders on statistical hallucination
- Both carrying absurd usage
There have been dominant individual seasons before… but never two competitors simultaneously posting this level of all-time production.
This is basically watching two MVP seasons that would normally be historic #1-of-the-decade peaks – happening in the same season.