I mean it is bound to be surpassed by future generations. Especially, the way the game is played today.

One problem is that you said your projections were based on “conservative” 3PM per game averages, at 3.5, 4.0, and 4.5. Those are insane numbers.

Lillard, Klay, and Luka are all tied at 2nd all time in career 3PM per game at 3.1.

Edwards has surpassed that pace across the last 2 seasons, but breaking the record on your timeline will require him to sustain a historic level of shooting in the coming years. Those aren’t conservative numbers.

There’s no need for any caveats or qualifications. Everyone knows Steph didn’t get the greenlight to bomb 3’s until 2015. As a result, it stands to reason that his 3 pointers made record is far from unassailable.

 His current trend is 4+ threes per game and rising

He’s already below 4 so far this season. Considering 4 and 4.5 “conservative averages” means you think theres a chance he averages 6 per game? 7? Like whats the not conservative estimate? 

This is an example of math gone bad because its built on flimsy premises that you just tell us are reasonable, conservative etc but have no data to actually back up the most factually inaccurate statements you made and then correctly calculate off those flimsy premises. 

Hornets Rookie will do it before turning 30

Genuine question lol, how many kids does Ant have at 37?

Does this assume Curry doesn’t add more to the record

I see the point that Edward’s is on historical 3PM trajectory. But I’d also be pretty surprised if he surpasses it as Curry doesn’t seem so close to retirement.

Assuming Ant can stay healthy 37 is wild, extremely rare for a player to not only stay healthy but productive so long isn’t likely

Ant won’t have the longevity of Curry. Lebron playing so well into 40 has really distracted us on how good Curry still is for his age.

Yup pretty inevitable. Just has to make 3’s at a historic rate for another 10-14 years.

Didn’t we do this same exact thing with Harden and Dame and every young guy who comes into the league and makes some 3’s?

Curry putting up 200+ three’s while getting close to 40 makes up for his slow start to his career. You’re going to see plenty of guys “on pace” heading into their age 30 but most will fall off early 30’s. I really don’t think this is as much of a lock as people say it is, especially when curry gets to 4500 realistically. And 5k on the extreme high end.

225+ three’s for 20 seasons is hardly a lock.

Curry is still playing, curry still has 3K more made 3’s.. this is all assuming Edwards never misses a large chunk of time due to injuries and averages at least 250 made 3’s for 14-15 more seasons. Meaning he’ll have to play 19-20 seasons and stay mostly healthy. And you saying he’s on track in the next 9 years? What the hell ll

His record is ongoing so this doesn’t make much sense. What will the record be at when curry retires?

His current trend is not “4+ threes per game and rising.” His career best for a season is 4.1 and he’s currently sinking from that.

Curry set it all up for future generations to pass him. He changed the game in a way I don’t think anyone expected.

Interesting. OP said Ant is “on pace” to break the record by 33 but that’s not even remotely true by any metric.

His 3PM stats are already behind last year’s, and I bet he’ll have the same kind of slump too.

Doubt he even finishes with 300 makes this year.

That title is absolute nonsense.  An equivalent statement would be “if Anthony Edward’s can make 315 3s per season, a feat that has only happened 4 times in the history of the NBA by someone not named Steph Curry that Ant barely hit last season while playing 79 games, and he does this for 9 straight seasons, he’ll pass curry by 33.”

He has a shot at it if he enjoys a longer career in a starting role than 99% of players.  But he’s nowhere near on pace to hit it by 33.  He would have to ramp up by a ton.  

Crazy how the game has changed so much

2008: Tiger is definitely going to pass Jack. Just look at how many majors he has at age 33!

I don’t understand how 3.5 3pm is conservative. Edwards only has one full season shooting over that mark, and this season he is barely clearing it. For reference, the second most prolific three point shooter ever, James Harden, has two seasons clearing 4 3pm per game. A player who spent most of his career setting attempt records, still only has two seasons averaging more makes than Steph has averaged over 17 seasons.

This projection, and others I’ve seen for other young players, is almost entirely based on one season. Had Edwards had a career average season from three last year, it wouldn’t even be a discussion.

It’s really tempting to take an outlier year from a young player and say it’s the new normal, but you end up ignoring what the player has actually been doing for years. Edwards over a 4 year career is a 35% 3pt shooter. He’s hovered around 200 makes. He had a great season from distance last season, but basing a projection for the next decade based on that one season is extremely premature.

I’m not ruling out the possibility that Edwards really is now a prolific sharpshooter, or that he’ll one day top the career 3pt mark. But I think it is far less likely than you’re suggesting here. Even 3.5 makes a game is hard. It’s absolutely not conservative, Harden has exactly 0 such seasons after turning 30. Lillard has one. Steph has six over 4 3pm, and he’s still going, leading the league with 4.7 makes per game at 37.

I don’t doubt that players are going to start reaching 3000 makes really quickly. But that last 1500 when you gotta do it in your 30s is going to be daunting.

Curry in the first few years was not the same curry for the remaing 14… He shot max 4.7 3p attempts per game years 1-3 he shot min 7.7 3p a game for years 4 and beyond. If Steph stayed the player he was in the first 3 years then this analysis would have more real world fidelity, but he didnt

RemindMe! -13 Years

Steph created the very generation that will cruise right by him, most offenses are all about when in doubt chuck it out from deep

So not allowing for any stat decline with age, we are even seeing that with Steph Lebron KD

It’s crazy how much his jump shot has improved since entering the league. Amazing work ethic

With the change in the way the game is played, I don’t doubt that someone will eventually pass Curry’s record, eventually, but the chances of it being Ant are pretty low.

Your assumptions are a whole lot less conservative than you seem to be suggesting.

Yes, Curry had a slow start, largely due to being drafted late and having injury plagued early seasons. Still, it is no small thing to be a productive high end player up to age 36 or 37, and assuming that any 24 year old will keep up the pace of 3.5 to 4.5 made threes a game for 12-13 seasons is an enormous assumption. It is very common for even high end guards to be washed by the time they hit their early 30’s even without serious injury issues (Deron Williams, Allen Iverson, Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis, etc). Guys like Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry and Demar Derozan who were productive into their mid 30’s are extreme outliers among guards.

Anthony Edwards’ season last year ranks 7th all-time for three pointers made in a season. That’s phenomenal, and very impressive, but it is also his only season so far that ranks in the top 115 seasons of all time, and his pace has already noticeable slowed this year (averaging 3.6 made threes a game vs 4.1 last season), so projecting that sort of production more than a decade into the future is a huge assumption.

BTW, of the 6 seasons that topped Ant’s season last year, 5 of them were from Curry, who also holds 8 of the top 20 seasons all-time, and 10 of the top 25. Buddy Hield has 3 seasons in the top 20 (his highest is at #13), while Klay has two (#10 and #20). No one else has more than one season in the top 20. When you assume 4 3PM per game over a 70 game season (ie. 85% of the games) that’s a top 20 all-time season, and your projections at that level have Ant doing that for over a decade straight.

Also, let’s keep in perspective how ridiculous Curry’s late career has actually been. Curry’s 2023-24 season was the 3rd best all time for made threes, topping Ant’s best season by 37 total made threes. Last season, when Ant put up the 7th best season ever by this metric, Curry, at age 36, put up the 9th best season, only 9 3PM behind Ant…Yeah, with his career-best season, Ant only made up 9 net threes in his chase of Curry.

Even worse than that, Ant is behind 37 year old Curry this season. Steph has 75 made threes so far, and Ant has 62. So, even just looking at the past season and a quarter, age ³⁶⁄₃₇ Curry still has expanded his lead over age ²³⁄₂₄ Ant.

Curry didn’t have a great start to his career, in terms of health, but what will make his record exceedingly difficult to break is his ridiculous late career longevity. If Steph keeps going until he’s 40, it will be a very long time before anyone gets close to it.

Jesuschrist, reddit post editor is so bad. Im sorry guys I couldnt even post decent tables

put the numbers disrespectful by side more clearly

I mean, LeBron passed Reggie Miller. Different eras. Different numbers.

Pfft, my MP in 2k broke his record by 24 years old in his 6th season.

OP’s got tables made yet using unrealistic numbers. Sad.

No chance Ant passes him. I don’t see his game aging as well as Curry’s has.

Conservatively where

Written by chatgpt

Very nice post about something that I was bringing up a few years ago (tbf I also believed Lamelo could get there but he’s injury prone asf). Edwards will DEFINITELY beat Curry’s all time record; that doesn’t make him a better shooter the same way Lebron isn’t a better scorer than MJ. But it is what it is, the game has changed. Nice post OP.

Watch Kon go on pace to break that shit by 25 😭 that mf is shooting

anyone else notable on pace to break it? I kinda imagine its not that crazy if a handful of healthy reliable sharpshooters beat it, but I wasn’t expecting Ant (cuz i dont follow the Wolves).

Averaging 4.5 threes might be a bit ambitious. 

Ant’s 3pm per game have not actually been steadily climbing.  If anything, last year’s may have been a rogue outlier.  

Since he entered the league, his 3PM per game have been: 2.4, 3.0, 2.7, 2.4, 4.1, and now 3.6.  That’s not really steady growth, that’s more jittering all over the place, and as it stands now he’s averaging less than 3 threes per game for his career. 

And Tiger Woods was supposed to beat Jack Nicklaus’ majors record. Never did.

Ant needs to remain healthy.

This was an obvious outcome that a bunch of people denied could happen.

Steph opened the door and now a bunch of kids are stepping through it.

I mea thats all the game is anymore. Chuck up a 3, try not to look to hard at a defender, rinse and repat.

My newborn is on track to being the largest human in history. Little mans weight doubled from last year to this year.

What are you counting as age 24 season? Steph turned 24 in year 3 but towards the end of the season. So does that count as his age 24 season? Easier for Ant as he is an summer birthday that doesn’t happen during the season. So year 6 is Ants 24 y/o season compared to that being year 3 for Steph.

Draymond said this about 6 or 7 years ago. He said the record is not safe and there is probably somebody playing basketball right now who will break it.

The deal is the NBA didn’t go three point happy until about 5 years into Steph’s career. Steph was healed back until Kerr couldn’t contain him any longer. In a sense players nowadays have a jump on Curry because if they get the green light almost right away.

That said if Ant breaks Steph’s single season marks then I will be impressed.

Rate more important than total.

If ant plays until hes 40. Hes assured to score more points than scalabrine

First of all, I hope Steph plays forever and his record is never broken. However, It is crazy that edwards has a strong shot to do it if he stays healthy based on how much Steph changed the game. Wishing Steph health and a long road before retirement

2nd, while edwards might claim the lebron 3pt award on sheer longevity (it would take edwards more seasons and approx 20% more games to get there). Steph also shot at 42% career 3P vs edwards 36% current, with likely a much higher peak as a shooter and a career .42 / .47 / .91 split as a 6’2 point guard.

Unfortunately I’m sure someone else will do it in time, regardless if edwards does it, I just hope when it happens I’m not arguing at bars in 30 years about how Steph only played against podcasters and influencers and positionless basketball was a clown era, or some nonsense I can’t imagine

I think alot of people will pass void records and it won’t take long either . A decade or two once he gone

but will anyone ever beat Mac McClung’s dunk contest record?

Not surprising as Steph’s early years being injured and the years prior to Kerr’s arrival weren’t 3pt focused seasons, Curry’s record is breakable. If Curry played those years and they shot more 3s like they do now, then it’s possible Curry’s record is harder to break, but we don’t live in a world of “ifs.”

If he lasts that long

4133 + 650 (career includes playoffs)

And this is why it’s pointless to compare stats - because good luck convincing any honest human that Ant is a better 3pt shooter than Steph

The fact that this is true is just a testament to Stephs impact on the game.

If Curry didn’t come in the league with glass ankles I think you a couple years to that age

My 3yr old son is on pace to break my all-time potty minutes (PM) record by age 35.

I’m still avereging pretty well though, so we shall see

I think the big assumption here is that Edwards plays to 36, not sure how likely that is.

It seems worth noting that Steph is still in the league, and is still averaging about 4 3’s made per game. He’ll probably finish his career with over 4500 three’s made. Ant will still probably surpass that, but it might not be until he’s like 38

I don’t see Ant playing til 37.. just saying

That’s not conservative estimate, it’s more like a republican

Bold of you to predict that Ant’s career lasts that long.

On top of the fact that Ant came into the league 2 years younger than Steph, Steph missed 70% of his 3rd season and 75% of his 4th season due to severe ankle injuries. His 3pm rate per game also didn’t pick up until a bit later in his career as he was still single handedly changing the game. Ant arrived after Steph already changed the game.

Idk man it’s a loooooong time til he’s 36

Steph is still a better shooter.