It’s the numbers game in terms of what you said, where theoretically eventually one or two of these guys will actually pan out

And it’s also the numbers game because of how team friendly the contracts are, generally like 3-4 years and only 1-2 mill a year, super affordable and essentially don’t hit your cap at all, you hit on one and you hit really big because they outplay their contracts significantly if they’re even a rotation player

Looking at the cap situation the Celtics are in its clear that the 2nd round is key to building in the future. You’ll get them on flexible deals at cheap money. You’ll need that to fill out your team.

To me the plethora of 2s they are getting is indicative that the plan is to be keeping Tatum, Brown and White together for as long as possible

every 50 years there‘s a Jokic. So, yes, just be patient and play the numbers game:)

Go look at the draft every year starting 4-5 years ago on BBall Ref and sort by VORP you’ll see the second rounders that contribute.

Usually there are maybe 8-10 guys that make a real rotation for any significant amount of time.

Of those guys the best case scenario is generally a key rotation guy like Tyus Jones, Monte Morris, Hartenstien, Daniel Gafford or Mitchell Robinson, which is maybe 2 to 4 guys a year.

Every few years you get a sub all star like Malcolm Brogdon or Norm Powell or a sixth man like Jordan Clarkson.

Every decade you get an all star or 2 and once in history we got the MVP.

The average successful second rounder looks more like Ayo Dosunmo or KJ Martin.

It’s also common to use 2nd rounders in trades, either to dump small-to-midsize contracts (looking at you, Niang), or as the finishing touch to push a deal through. Considering that recent signings have put us slightly back into the 2nd apron, we know at least one trade is coming (probably soon), and I’d be surprised if that trade didn’t involve us sending out 2nd rounders.

Yeah eventually he will get a serviceable one.

Brad wants to have a lot of second round picks because they are cheap and some will hit. They can also be used in trades to sweeten the pot or help offload a salary.

Its’s still early, but looking at the rest of that draft from 25 (Marcus Sasser) on, there isn’t that high of a bar for one of those second round picks to cross. A good role player might be better than anyone drafted 25 or after.

You’re definitely right. Anyone that gets a good 2nd round player or undrafted isn’t a genius they’re lucky. The more chances you have at being lucky, the more often it will happen. I think that’s the point of the phrase “fortune favors the bold” long live BradGM

Who’s the last 2nd rd pick that’s been anything for the Celtics? Semi Ojeleye?

Another undetermined 2nd rounder from the Kings (i’m having trouble finding exactly what pick the Kings traded for #34 in 2023)

I believe that was the 2024 Dallas pick that became Anton Watson, but it is difficult to find confirmation. All I could find was this blog post which says that was the price the Kings paid.

One thing about second round picks is that picks in the 30s have much higher hit rates than those in the 40s and 50s.Picks 31-45 have a 66% “bust” percentage vs 87% for picks in the second half of the round. And I’d expect that become even more the case as players/agents push to be undrafted and pick their destination once they start to slide into the late second round

They are also increasingly trade bait/incentive so having a volume allows you to trade bunches to make a bigger move.

….right?

2nd round picks are (ironically) lottery picks, you hope to hit but more likely they player doesn’t contribute much. If you can get a guy who gives you 15 decent minutes a gamefor 4 years that’s a good pick in that range.

The thing about 2nd round picks (and draft picks in general) is their value decreases the second it is used to draft a player. Now we’re seeing trades were 2nds are used as sweeteners and their value in that regard has increased. But when draft day comes we see second picks being sold for cash and agents steering their clients to teams of their choice (Bronny is the most famous example). The NBA is so relationship based that it doesn’t matter where you pick in the 2nd or even if you don’t have a pick if you’re able to get an agent to force a player to be undrafted and then sign with you.

Brad is being brilliant in turning a single second rounder into multiple future players because it does give them a chance to bring in cheap talent like youve said, but it’s also great trade fodder.

His idea of trading down from the late first round to the early second round in theory is a good one, because in theory there shouldn’t be a huge difference between pick #25-30 vs #31-36 (even though FRP make more than SRP).

But in practice he hasn’t really done a good job. I don’t think he’s actually drafted a single player that we could say will stay on our roster long term. Part of that comes with how hard it is to find a good prospect that late in the draft, but the other part of it is that I think our scouting is about average to below average, because there are definitely other teams in the league that manage to pick up good talent late in the draft or even outside of the draft (Grizzlies, Miami, etc).

It’s at least frustrating to me because there’s been a handful of prospects I’ve casually looked at in previous drafts that I was like “ok this guy is going to be good” and then we don’t draft them and I end up watching them shoot the lights out of the stadium for another team. So I don’t know what our scouting is doing because if some random nobody like me is able to pick out good players from literally just looking at their college stats I don’t understand why they can’t do the same if not much better than me.

The only guarantee with 2nd round picks is that there is no guarantee. Just like buying a lottery ticket doesnt guarantee a win, but it’s worse since even if you had all second round picks in a given draft, you have no guarantee that any of them would be good players. 

Wrong. I think. How many 2nd rounders hit, period? Not like Jokic or Brunson, but meaningful rotation minutes for a contender, possibly spot starter covering for an injury?

Celtics in particular, I don’t think they hit once since…I don’t know. When WAS the last time they got a difference maker in the 2nd?

There are quite a few 2nd rounders who outperform lottery picks from the same year.

People need to chill on the Brad is bad at drafting train. He’s doing something most teams don’t do. Trying to get big value out of traditionally value-less players. It may not work out, but it’s at least a direction that, if it hits, will hit huge in this new CBA

He really needs to stop trading back or entirely trading out of the draft. I can understand, for example, the logic behind turning #32 into #47 and #54 but there’s always a better chance at nailing a better talent at higher draft picks.

Brad has built a championship team by trading away 1st round picks for proven players, but with the current CBA and have 2 supermax players on the roster, the most viable way forward is to start hitting on your picks and finding the next Pritchard or Hauser.

Don’t forget undrafted summer invites like Gregg and Scott. They look promising. If they are consistent in summer games, they deserve 2 ways.

I think it’s likelier he’s looking for the next Xavier Tillman to trade for whenever they get good again in the near future? I don’t know if Brad wants to play the lottery with 2nd round picks.

They may also make some of those trades because there aren’t roster spots available or the salary might put them over an apron.

I believe the value of 2nd rd picks is going up. Drafts are getting flatter after the top handful of lottery pocks: there’s lots of talent out there, and the flexibility of the contracts and lower hit will help us field a strong cadre of youth around the core of Brown, Tatum, and White.

If by “hit” you mean a guy who can be our 10th man-yes we’ll definitely hit eventually

Or he uses them as package fodder in a trade. 🤷‍♂️

But can the Cs offer any opportunities to their 2nd round picks is the question. Even G League mvp JD only sees garbage time. My fear is that most of them will get their shot to shine elsewhere after they leave.

I forgot Brad refusing to draft a first round pick for like 3 years straight

I think (especially in those later year picks and with NIL) the second round will only become more valuable.

With the talent influx from other countries, I could see the G league becoming more like a farm system rather than a second developmental league.

Also, with the crazy cap situation on full display rn, those cheap contracts could adequately fill out a roster

Actually, I’m really interested in Amari. See what he can do

There’s a huge influx of international talent all over the league now. You could legitimately field an all-star team with Shai, Jokic, Murray, Sabonis, Sengun, Luka, Wemby, Giannis, Siakam, Lauri, Porzingis when healthy, and I’m definitely forgetting some.

There’s also a much better chance than there used to be to see a March Madness 5-seed or 7-seed or 10-seed advance. Every one of those teams has an impact player that isn’t a lottery pick but has a ton of potential for an NBA career (and usually more college basketball experience than the one-and-done top players).

The odds say that it’s increasingly likely that there are more than 30 worthy players in the draft nowadays. Expect the number of 2nds who hit to become higher and higher, especially with what looks to be a new move toward depth (the Thunder and Pacers were the 2 deepest teams in the league).

It’s also about the money. Low 1st round picks are rarely any better than 2md round picks, 1st round contracts are significantly more expensive. So, let’s say you want to fill a 15 man roster but you know that you will never play 6 of those guys. Make those 6 guys 2ns round picks and you will have way more money available for whatever–signing good players or just liking the  owners pockets. I use this strategy all of the time on a game called basket ball gm.

Nope

We will get to see some second rounders oaky this year. JD should get minutes along with Walsh.

I’m not sure the recent opinion of 2nd rounders being worth more than the toilet paper you wipe your ass with.

For as long as I can remember, 2nd round picks have been nothing more than “cash” or trade throw ins. Sure, you may hit the odd legitimate NBA guy but pretty unlikely.

2nd round picks are worthless in terms of building an NBA roster, or roughly $200k if you’re trading for it.

It’s because they’re cheap and we have two max contracts on the roster.

I wish we traded some for Whitmore

Brad is not good at drafting.

He is the best gm in the league pound for pound but probably the worst at drafting. I hope he uses those picks to bring in a nice big man instead of working on building a maine lobsters dynasty